Market Review
GLOBEX
| (ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session | (ESH20:CME) Day Session |
| High 3886.25 | Opening Print: 3885.50 |
| Low: 3860.00 | High 3888.25 |
| Volume: 175,000 | Low: 3868.50 |
| ES Settlement 3884.25 | |
| Total Volume 1.0 M |
S&P 500 Futures Recap – Trade Date February 5, 2021
S&P 500 Futures: Best Week Since November
After trading in a 26.25-handle overnight range, the S&P 500 futures opened Friday’s cash session at 3885.50 and traded to the daily low of 3868.50 in the first hour. From there, the index futures would rally through the morning toward the noon daily high of 3888.25. The afternoon would drift lower down to 3875.25 before settling at 3884.25, up 19.75 handles on low volume, barely hitting one million contracts. In terms of price action, it was all about selling the open and going long at the 9:15 low.
Economic Calendar
Closing Prices
In the Tradechat Room
MiM
ES squeezed out a run-up into the close on a very small MOC that had no effect except to say “nothing to worry about or see here”. The break up continues to squeeze the shorters and the weak hands continue to get rolled.
Questions? Please email me: Marlin@mrtopstep.com
Get the skinny when we get it: Join the MiM.
Covid Corner:
Things continue to imporve in the US as a sharp drop in hospitialied covid paitents is universally being felt along with a drop in new cases.
With the exception of Texas Texas which struggles to stay flat, we are seeing a drop in daily cases across the US. THIS IS NOT DUE TO CURRENT VACCINE ROLLOUT. As we have seen in Israel, which was earlier than us in their vaccine rollout, it takes a good month or so after 25% percent of the nation is vaccinated before we can see the effect. The US is currently below 10%.
Encouraging news is starting to come out of Israel over the effectiveness of the vaccine. Here is a recent article from the JP Post talking about both reduced infections and symptoms from the Pfizer vaccine.
Wear your masks!
Stay at least 10 feet behind someone wearing a mask! (Particularly in a checkout line)
Stay home!
Take your Vitamin D!
Chart of the Day
Dogecoin, which started out as a joke crypto, is getting traction with the online community as Elon Musk joins in and wants to take it to the moon. It is a cheap crypto trading around $0.07 up 700% from a week ago.
Our View
Pullbacks Followed By New All-Time Highs
There is no denying the S&P 500’s overall price action, pullbacks or sell-offs followed by new all-time stock market contract highs. Funny thing, it’s been pretty much like this since QE 1 and the 2008 credit crisis. I know as long as the fed is printing money and the government is adding stimulus it’s a buyer’s market but It’s in our DNA to be concerned about extended bull markets especially when it’s been going on for 13 years and overlooking the pandemic and record unemployment is disturbing but in order to be successful, you have to put your blinders on.
ES 3900
Our view, it’s 9:30 Sunday night and the ES just traded 3900 and my guess is there’s a lot of room on the upside. If you are a trend follower, you buy the 20 to 30-handle pullbacks. Our lean, I think 3900-3920 is a big level. I also think there will be larger pullbacks, just not now. Sell the higher open or the first rally above and buy the pullbacks.
Danny Riley is a 39-year veteran of the CME trading floor. He ran one of the largest S&P desks on the floor of the CME Group since 1985.
As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Decisions to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
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