Market Review
GLOBEX
| (ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session | (ESH20:CME) Day Session |
| High 3932.25 | Opening Print: 3907.50 |
| Low: 3913.00 | High 3930.00 |
| Volume: 313K | Low: 3896.50 |
| ES Settlement 3926.50 | |
| Total Volume 1.35M |
S&P 500 Recap – Trade Date February 17, 2021
S&P 500 Futures: Another Trip To Nowhere
After trading in a 25.25-handle overnight range, the S&P 500 futures opened Wednesday’s cash session at 3907.50, minutes traded to the daily low of 3896.50 in the opening minutes and then rallied up to the morning high, printing 3923.25 just after 9:00 CT. From there, the futures would trade a 3898.00 high or low at 10:45 and then rally through the remainder of the morning, during the noon hour, and for much of the afternoon, trading a 3930.00 late-day high before settling at 3928.00, up 2.5 handles on volume of a modest 1.35 million contracts traded. In terms of price action, it was all about buying the mid-morning higher-low retest and covering just before the close.
Economic Calendar
Closing Prices
In the Tradechat Room
MiM & SpyGate
A decent size buy of about 1B, but no lean again, just over 50% of the symbols trading with a buy-imbalance. Early MIM was totally non-committal but price action from 14:30 into the close was committed to the upside putting in a 12- point rally to close the day.
Questions? Please email me: Marlin@mrtopstep.com
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Covid Corner:
Looking at the world we see improvments around the globe as daily new cases begin to fall almost everywhere.
But not really everywhere. That northeastern scection of Africa continues to fight with an uptick in cases as well has Iraq.
Iraq is on the upswing of another wave while the rest of us are in a downswing. The rate of that upside is quite concerning.
The US in general is doing better across the board. We see some red states in the chart above, but those are still very small and off a large drop. That does need to be monitored for another wave beginning with fear that the more virulent versions will start to spread.
Wear your masks!
Stay at least 10 feet behind someone wearing a mask! (Particularly in a checkout line)
Stay home!
Take your Vitamin D!
Chart of the Day
GMTT – chart of the day – Crude – Feb17, 2021
Crude reached 13 months high earlier this week.
When we look on the chart you can see that Crude gave twice a false signal since its October 2020 low.
However, they corrected quickly, and the trend was still upwards.
This move starts to look overbought short term.
At GMTT we went short Crude at 60.35 with a 61.05 buy stop.
We might be a little too early which is the reason for the tight stop.
Technically we need a close below 58.90 to get a sell signal.
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Our View
State of Flux
The S&P rallied sharply off yesterday’s low but sold off again on Globex. It’s 6:00 and the ES is down 19 points , NQ down 118 and the YN is down 110 and despite being down is trading 61.12. Tell me I’m wrong but it really seems like things are in a state of flux. I’m not going to do a big ‘view’ today. The ES has been struggling to hold the rallies but it’s the February options expiration week and that could change.
The CAC, DAX and FTSI are all down about 0.70%. Bitcoin is down over 1,100 points at 51,195 and crude, wti, and natty gas are all trading higher. The stock market is choppy and with all the rotation seems to be lacking leadership. Our lean is to buy the early weakness. Friday is the February options expiration and my guess is we see some type of pop. Again, we can’t rule out selling some rallies but if the ES can get above the 3936 level and hold I think there is a good possibility we see new contract highs by the end of the week.
Danny Riley is a 39-year veteran of the CME trading floor. He ran one of the largest S&P desks on the floor of the CME Group since 1985.
As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Decisions to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
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