Market Review
Last Monday’s high was as high as the ESZ20 could go for the week. Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s selloff locked in last Monday’s high as a high failure of the November all-time high. The high failure is short-term bearish. Tuesday’s low was a bounce off last week’s inside 3575-3590s structural support. On Wednesday, the ESZ20 probed the 3575-3590s support area but closed back up near the area which at that point was potential resistance. The 3575-3590s in fact did turn into resistance and held through Monday’s price action. Wednesday’s probe low to 3542s became intra-week structural support that held through Monday this week. The 3542s support is former resistance of October’s monthly high and thus another former support area that turned into resistance.
Little has changed with the market environment over the last week. We now have 3 coronavirus vaccines seeking FDA emergency approval. The pharmaceutical companies are gearing up for production and scrambling to line up distribution.
President Trump continues to claim he won the Nov 3 election. Conservative media has perpetuated Trump’s claims to the point that Forbes reports 88% of Trump supporters believe that Biden did not legitimately win the election. The popular vote count is not even that close. As New York finalizes their votes (which favor Biden), Biden has a 51% to 47% advantage. That is the second largest popular vote margin of the 6 presidential elections in the 21st century.
Trump’s legal team has not presented any evidence of widespread election fraud, rather Trump’s lawyers have carefully avoided saying there was widespread fraud in front of judges to avoid perjury. Most of Trump’s legal cases have been dismissed. The Electoral vote certification is December 8, so there is still 2 more weeks of Trump maneuvering to stay in power another term.
A coronavirus relief package remains a wildcard although not much progress was made last week as we head into the Thanksgiving holidays. Historically, the Wednesday before and Friday after Thanksgiving are bullish.
Structural support and resistance have not changed much this week:
Resistance Areas (above):
3645-3670s
3630-3637s
3582-3588s
Support Areas (below):
3542-3545s
3506-3518s
3428-3456s
3358-3382s
3300-3319s
3225-3243s
Volatility continues to shrink and expect more as US markets go into holiday mode. The 5-day ESZ20 average range has dropped from 58 to 47 points over the last week. It should become a quiet week with US stock markets closed on Thursday and half-day on Friday. Best chance for a directional move will be Monday, Nov 30 when most market players have returned to their desks.
Below is a snap of the ESZ20 daily chart with the above support and resistance numbers marked for reference. Thanks again for reading. For more information on how DTG can help your trading, visit us at DiscoveryTradingGroup.com
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MiM
Another down the middle of the road MiM which had very little effect on the 15:50 reveal. It was preceded by a very nice 15+ point rally. There will be no MIM on Thursday, the US markets are closed. Friday is an early closing and the MIM will run from 11 am ET until the 1pm-close;
Questions? Please email me: Marlin@mrtopstep.com
Get the skinny when we get it: Join the MiM.
Covid Corner:
Not time to take the foot off for sure, but there is some easing in new cases showing up and our good-boy list above is showing more green than we have since in the last 30 days. Our 3rd wave in daily-deaths has passed the 1500 mark but it will struggle to get to 2000. Our holiday calendar is about to be put things to the test. If we don’t have a spike a week or so after the Thanksgiving weekend the authorities are going to have a hard time putting a lid on Christmas.
Wear your masks!
Stay home!
Take your Vitamin D!
Chart of the Day
GMTT – Chart of the Day – Gold – Nov 24, 2020
Gold (DEC)
This trade did not go as anticipated.
We expected Gold to hold above 1842 but it got crushed and made this morning a low of 1819.
The question we get is would you go long again or do you expect Gold to move lower.
We show two Gold charts, one long term and the other short term.
As you can see the Gold price broke the 1842 support level to move into a short-term bearish zone.
To get a new entry level to buy Gold we need an intraday close above 1835.
The suggested sell stop is 1814.
If Gold closes below 1814 that would give the indication that Gold has not yet bottomed.
We will then need to wait to get a better entry level.
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GLOBEX
| (ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session | (ESH20:CME) Day Session |
| High 3582.50 | Opening Print: 3575.50 |
| Low: 3544.00 | High 3577.50 |
| Volume: 180K | Low: 3542.25 |
| ES Settlement 3543.50 | |
| Total Volume 1.3M |
S&P 500 Futures Recap
S&P 500 Futures: Mondays In November Up 4 In a Row
After trading in a 34.50 handle overnight range, the S&P 500 futures opened Monday’s cash session at 3573.00, up 18.75 handles, and traded to the daily high in the first thirty minutes at 3588.00. From there, the ES would reverse, and sell off for nearly two hours, eventually printing the daily low of 3548.75 just after 10:30 CT. For the rest of the morning, the S&Ps would lift higher into the noon hour printing a midday high of 3570.50.
The afternoon would see a higher low of 3562.50 just ahead of 1:30 and then a rallying into the final hour making a late day high of 3584.50 before settling at 3576.00, up 21.75 handles or +0.61% on total volume of a low 1.16 million. In terms of price action, it was all about selling the high just before 9:00 and buying the low just after 10:30.
Our View
Low Volume Grind
The S&P did pretty much like I thought it would, it rallied on Globex, opened higher on the 8:30 CT futures open, dropped a few handles then rallied up to 3588 at 9:45 ET and then sold off 39.75 handles down to 3548.75 and then rallied back up to 3584.25 after 3:00 than sold off down to 3572.00. It was a day of stop runs all day long. I am not going to do a big view today. I laid it out in yesterday’s OP that I was looking for an up Tuesday and Wednesday.
Our view is for ‘thin to win’ and turnaround Tuesday, you can sell the early rally after the open especially if the ES is higher and buy the 10:30 or 11:00 midmorning low and look for a rip keeping in mind all the two-way price action.
As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Decisions to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
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