Market Review
S&P 500 Futures Recap – Trade Date May 17, 2021
Economic Calendar
Closing Prices
In the TradeChat Room
Market On Close – MiM – Small
Check out all the Market Closing action in our daily post
Questions? Please email me: Marlin@mrtopstep.com
Get the skinny when we get it: Join the MiM.
.
SpyGate: Much Ado About Nothing
Check out our Daily SpyGate Post
SpyGate is now available free to members of IMPRO and MIM trading room. Join the MiM.
The annual inflation rate in the US soared to 4.2% in April of 2021 from 2.6% in March and well above market forecasts of 3.6%. It is the highest reading since September of 2008, amid a surge in demand as the economy reopens, soaring commodity prices, supply constraints. There is also a base effect weighing as the coronavirus pandemic dented economic activity bringing the inflation rate to 0.3% in April 2020. The biggest increases were recorded for gasoline (49.6% vs 22.5% in March), fuel oil (37.3% vs 20.2%) and used cars and trucks (21% vs 9.4%). Inflation also accelerated for shelter (2.1% vs 1.7%) and new vehicles (2% vs 1.5%) and rebounded for apparel (1.9% vs -2.5%), but slowed for medical care services (2.2% vs 2.7%) and food (2.4% vs 3.5%). Meanwhile, compared to March, prices rose 0.8%, the most since 2009 while monthly core consumer inflation increased 0.9%, the most since 1996. source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Chart of the Day
Ark’s Flagship ETF Produces Dot-Com Era Echoes for BofA
The rise and fall of Ark Investment Management’s flagship exchange-traded fund echoes the dot-com stock crash of the early 2000s, according to Michael Hartnett, Bank of America Corp.’s chief global investment strategist. Hartnett raised the issue in a May 7 report that highlighted a ratio between the ARK Innovation ETF and Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. — the “new economy” versus the “old economy,” as he put it. For historical perspective, he tracked the ratio between Invesco Ltd. and Berkshire in the late 1990s and beyond. Invesco was then one of the largest U.S. stock-fund managers.
Our View
S&P and Nasdaq Close Lower in Choppy Trade
After trading higher on Globex Sunday night, the S&P (ESM21:CME) and Nasdaq (NQM21:CME) futures opened lower on Monday morning’s 9:30 ET futures open. It was an extremely choppy day with the ES moving up and down 10 handles at a time. Late in the session, the futures firmed up as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed over $150 million to buy.
At 9:39 the ES trade the high of the day at 4167.00, made its low of 4136.50 at 1:40, traded 4152.00 on the 4:00 cash close, and settled at 4159.75, down 13.5 points or -0.32% on the day. The NQ closed down 90 points or -0.68%. In terms of the ES’s and NQ’s overall tone, they traded weak all day but had a nice late-day bounce. In terms of the day’s over all trade, it may have been choppy but volume was steady at 1.48 million contracts traded.
Our view: I was right about selling the early rallies but what I should have called out was the MrTopStep trading rule that says ‘After a big rally the ES tends to go sideways to down’ because that was the price action. Our lean, I think we could ‘possibly’ see another few days of weakness/back and fill before going back up Thursday. Ideally, I want to buy the pullbacks but I am not ruling out selling an early rally either. 4270 is coming, it’s just a matter of time.
As we all know, there’s no crystal ball when it comes to trading stocks, options or futures. But the Market Imbalance Meter may be as close as it comes. Knowing how the “Big Money” is placing its bets can give our trading room a big wave to ride — or a warning sign to stay out of the water. Come check it out now, risk free for 30 days.
Danny Riley is a 39-year veteran of the CME trading floor. He ran one of the largest S&P desks on the floor of the CME Group since 1985.
As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Decisions to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
No responses yet