Market Review
GLOBEX
| (ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session | (ESH20:CME) Day Session |
| High 3484.25 | Opening Print: 3460.25 |
| Low: 3426.50 | High 3477.25 |
| Volume: 350,000 | Low: 3344.75 |
| ES Settlement 3418.25 | |
| Total Volume 2.9 M |
S&P 500 RECAP – Trade Date 09/05/ 2020
September And October; Historically Volatile Two Months
After trading in a 57.75 handle range in the overnight session that mostly leaned higher, the S&P 500 futures opened the regular trading hours at 3460.25, up three ticks on the day, and then ran up to 3477.25 in the opening minutes, printing what would amount to the high of the day. From there, the index futures reversed lower as waves of selling knocked down the S&Ps to 3347.75 around 9:45, a 129.50 handle sell-off in just one hour. However, the ES would hold that print as the low of the day. After a 39.25 rally to 3387.00, the lows would be retested at 10:30 with the market making a higher low and from there, buyers would enter the indexes pushing the ES up to a late morning high of 3415.00, up 67.25 off of the low.
The midday would see a 31.75 handle pullback to 3383.25 where buyers would once again step up to the plate initiating an afternoon rally that would push the ESU up to 3454.25, nearly going back to even on the day, before final-hour sellers would control the close as the S&Ps went on to settle at 3418.25, down 41.25 handles or -1.21%.
In terms of price action, the big winners were the sellers early in the session and then the buyers of a mid-morning low. Total volume was another impressive 2.9 million contracts traded.
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Covid Corner:
Spotlight on Arkansas as they continue to see a rise in daily deaths as they have never had an exponential type curve but a slow steady climb without any real reprieve. Amazing how these curves all look so different.
To use our table, go to https://t2r4.com/cv19/views. Each column is sortable and if you click on a cell you will get a time-based chart of the state.
Wear your masks!
Stay Home!
Chart of the Day
Our View
Stocks And Oil Drop; Vix Pops
After the S&P had its best August in over 30 years the markets have now entered a historically volatile period; September and October. Last Thursday and Friday the ES logged two of its largest declines since the summer began with the VIX reaching a 10-week high. Adding to the stock markets ‘uncertainty’, the US presidential election. Statistically, the S&P has fallen an average of 0.5% in September since 1944 which is the largest decline of any month and has fallen each election year over that period of time. October is known for the steepest historical declines of any month in the S&P. If Thursday and Friday were an indication of things to come, I suspect there will be some very volatile trading sessions in the next few months.
Our view, after making 43 record closes this year traders are starting to question the stability of the tech sector and whether the sector can continue to produce gains. As the economy continues to improve and with interest rates at zero, investors definitely have a mindset that there is no other place to invest than stock. Our lean, ideally we would look to sell a higher open and sell the early rallies. If the ES gaps sharply lower we may look at buying the open but that will depend on how the ND acts. My gut says we see lower prices at least in the first part of the day and then some type of bounce.
Market Vitals Technical Analysis
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As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
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