Market Review
Disclaimer: For educational use only. I’m not dispensing financial advice. We are having an intellectual conversation (you and I) on the topic of trading the Emin futures using the Lens of Wyckoff Principles and the Eyes of WB’s clock. The clock that controls all turns intraday, every day!
It’s been 7 days and for the most part, I’ve been in a cocoon where I have not seen the light of day. I wake up today and I hear FB is changing its name to MVRS on December 1. FANG = MANG, not sure how that’s going to work? I hear the POTUS try to sell me on a plan and I think “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it!”
The speech is full of Aerolestealian logic and I think how did dim-witted people get in control of our future? The market does not care about any of that! Still going up on 700, 800, 900 volume with no end sight.
Still carrying a small long.
Perhaps, next week, I’ll have more for you. For now, that’s all I got! I’m going back to bed and hopefully will be better in a few days.
It’s not the best 45 (I’ve reduced it to 32) minutes you’ll have in your life. However, if you are wanting to see how the spill is sealed or turn is sealed, invest 32minutes to discover how using trend lines timed to WB’s clock will give you better timing in your trade location. And it also explains why Thursday was nothing but a SU day (STRAIGHT UP).
HERE’S THE URL https://my.demio.com/ref/ImoumtZGEIKkn583
View it during the lunch SLOG or the evening when you have more time to focus.
Looking Forward to Friday, October 29, 2021
There is talk we may have some stock buybacks MS to name a few. Traders are optimistic and looking for that 4500 up to 4550 handles. Not a fan of moving averages but the daily has taken over the 50 on the top side.
Offing Events: The debt ceiling was kicked till December. Trillions are waiting to be voted on. Delta virus has made a dent. The country is coming undone at the seams. September / October may just be the catalyst for the truth to be revealed.
When the trend is in WB’s clock is your friend. If you have not subscribed take the jab today. It’s less than a cup of coffee each trading day. What more proof do you need? Click the red button below to SUBSCRIBE to the AM TURN NEWSLETTER.
Economic Calendar
Closing Prices
In the TradeChat Room
Market On Close: Last Day of the Month today. Yesterday was a decent buy with a decent lean.
>> Check out all the Market Closing action in our daily post <<
MOCs for the month.
Questions? Please email me: Marlin@mrtopstep.com
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SpyGate: Bots were about selling in the AM but buying on the close.
Check out our Daily SpyGate Post
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Baxter
Baxter is our new AI trading helper. This data is early, new, and not very well tested but we want to share some of our findings. We are concentrating on the SP500 which should benefit ES futures and SPY traders.
Last Trading Day:
High: 15:59 (close)
10:00 – 12:00 88% wrong (secondary high @ 11:45, but squeeze on close poked a higher high)
Low: 09:30 (open)
09:30 – 10:00 76% correct
10:00 – 12:00 24%
Today:
High:
09:30 – 10:00 >90%
Low:
09:30 – 10:00 42%
Chart of the Day
S&P 500 shakes off past by rising along with oil prices
The S&P 500 has repeatedly set records in 2021 even as oil has risen to seven-year highs in New York trading. This performance is no anomaly, as shown in a Twitter post Tuesday by Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab Corp.’s chief investment strategist. She showed the two-year correlation between the S&P 500 and a Bloomberg oil-price indicator, compiled monthly. The correlation turned positive in September 2009 and has remained there almost every month since then. In the previous 25 years, the indicator was more often negative than positive, showing stocks and oil tended to move in opposite directions.
Our View
When Was The Last Time Apple And Amazon Earnings Missed?
Wednesday’s weak close again led to an overnight push up to 4562.50, up almost 20 handles from its 4545 Globex low, and opened Thursday’s regular session at 4559.50. From there, the ES went straight up to 4568.75 at 9:35 and then up to 4574.75 at 10:03. After the high, the ES sold off down to 4565.25 and then RIPPED up to 4584.75 at 10:48.
The ES pulled back to the 4579 area, retested the 4584.75 high, and then fell 11 points down to 4573.50. Eventually, it traded back up to 4582, then dropped over 12 points down to the VWAP at 4569.75 at 1:00.
Like clockwork, a 3:00 sell program pushed the ES back down to 4575.75 as the MIM started showing $755 million to sell and went to over $1 billion to sell. At 3:36, the ES traded back up to a lower high at 4582.25. As the MIM moved out to $1.2 billion to sell, the ES traded back down to the 4576.25 area. The ES traded 4579.75 as the 3:50 cash imbalance ‘flipped’ to buy $1.45 billion and the ES ran the buy stops up to a new high at 4587.50 at 3:58 and traded 4587 on the 4:00 cash close.
Then we had earnings.
After Amazon missed its earnings forecast, the stock fell over $100 and the ES traded back down to 4580.75 at 4:06. Then the ES sold off even lower, down to 4571.50 after Apple’s sales missed expectations. The ES settled at 4578.50 on the 5:00 futures close, up 30.75 points or +0.68% on the day.
In the end, it was all Apple and Amazon’s weak earnings. Keep in mind, they account for almost 20% of the Nasdaq 100 and over $4.25 trillion in combined market caps.
In terms of the ES’s overall tone, it was firm all day until the reports. In terms of the day’s overall trade, volume was ‘steady’ at 1.14 million contracts traded.
Our View
I was wrong about selling the rallies yesterday and I knew it right away. On the one hand, I said the Russell would be up sharply — which it was, that was spot on — and on the other hand, I said sell the ES rallies.
That said, I was quick to point out in the MrTopStep chat that the gap up and quick pop would set up a ‘trend day up.’ Being flexible and adaptable is a key trait that’s needed to be successful in this business. It’s one thing to be wrong. It’s another thing to stay wrong.
Below are some of the posts and the times I posted. I know there are a lot of people that read the Opening Print but don’t necessarily trade futures. That’s okay!
For example, our traders’ read on the ES has a very similar correlation with the SPY and the SPX. For the NQ, it has a very similar impact on the QQQ. Obviously many individual stocks tend to trade with the direction of the overall market too. So it can be very helpful even for non-futures traders, of which there are plenty.
IMPRO: Dboy :(9:29:42 AM) : RTY was down 40 yesterday [Remember, looking for the opposite today]
IMPRO: Dboy :(9:29:54 AM) : today they will buy it all day
IMPRO: Dboy :(9:31:50 AM) : I’m thinking this ends up a trend day up
IMPRO: Dboy :(9:34:21 AM) : been going sideways to down for the last 3 days
IMPRO: Dboy :(9:34:32 AM) : best way to screw everyone is up
IMPRO: Dboy :(10:05:38 AM) : nq going to be up 150
IMPRO: Dboy :(10:19:58 AM) : I think the nq is holding every well
IMPRO: Dboy :(10:20:56 AM) : the entire trade was long on yesterday’s close
IMPRO: Dboy :(10:22:17 AM) : bottom line the trend is up
IMPRO: Dboy :(10:22:35 AM) : just too much money to go into stocks
IMPRO: Dboy :(10:23:38 AM) : long or wrong as they say
Our Lean: I think there could be a ‘hangover’ from yesterday’s earnings misses from AAPL and AMZN. When you whack two big names out of FAANG there could be more selling overnight. Obviously, there are supply chain problems mounting. Between the two companies, they lost $150 billion in market cap. Our lean is to take a cautious approach. When was the last time AAPL and AMZN both missed? If the ES falls I may try and get long with tight stops, but ideally, I want to get a look at the price action.
Last Day Oct
DJIA: Up 10/21, Total Pts -140.47, Avg -0.05%
S&P: Up 11/21, Total Pts 0.44, Avg 0.02%
NASDAQ: Up 11/21, Total Pts 104.69, Avg 0.35%
R2K: Up 11/21, Total Pts 24.56, Avg 0.29%
1st Day Nov
DJIA: Up 13/21, Total Pts 946.33, Avg 0.21%
S&P: Up 13/21, Total Pts 87.89, Avg 0.17%
NASDAQ: Up 13/21, Total Pts 265.99, Avg 0.28%
R2K: Up 10/21, Total Pts 37.2, Avg 0.1%
Danny Riley is a 39-year veteran of the CME trading floor. He ran one of the largest S&P desks on the floor of the CME Group since 1985.
As we all know, there’s no crystal ball when it comes to trading stocks, options, or futures. But the Market Imbalance Meter may be as close as it comes. Knowing how the “Big Money” is placing its bets can give our trading room a big wave to ride — or a warning sign to stay out of the water. Come check it out now, risk-free for 30 days.
As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Decisions to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
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