Market Review
GLOBEX
| (ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session | (ESH20:CME) Day Session |
| High 3556.25 | Opening Print: 3546.25 |
| Low: 3526.25 | High 3587.00 |
| Volume: 278,000 | Low: 3533.75 |
| ES Settlement 3576.50 | |
| Total Volume 1.78 M |
S&P 500 RECAP – Trade Date 09/02/ 2020
#ES Money Maker Chart
S&P And Nasdaq New All Time Highs, Dow 29,000
After trading in a 30-handle Globex range that leaned higher, the S&P 500 opened Wednesday’s cash session at 3546.25, up 18.50 handles, and then sold on the open down to the low of the day at 3533.75 just after 9:00. From there, buyers came in pushing the ES up to 3552.75, a 19.00 handle rally, for the midmorning high. After a higher low retest at 3336.00 just after 10:30, buyers once again came in and began the same pattern, pushing the index futures to new highs in the afternoon.
The S&Ps rallied through the late morning up to 3557.50 and then continued the rally midday, printing 3567.00 just after 12:30. After a 9.50 handle pullback to 3557.50 at 1:15, the index futures continued the strong upward momentum that accelerated in the final hour as the ESU20 hit 3587.00 late in the day, a 53.25 handle rally off the low of the day, and up 59.25 handles on the day. However, in the final minutes, the buying pressure ran out of steam as profit-taking led the index lower to settle at 3576.50, up 49.75 handles or +1.39%.
Total volume was the highest since July 31st at 1.78 million contracts. In terms of price action, it was all about buying the low just after 9:00 and riding higher. And if you missed that low, the retest at 10:45 proved to be the second gift of the day as longs would own the late morning and all afternoon.
Economic Calendar
Closing Prices
In the Tradechat Room
MiM
Yestareday’s sell meant something as we rallied into a weak selling MiM into the close. Decent volume and a 1.5B sell imbalance at 15:50 triggered selling which shaved off about 10 points into the 16:00 close returning to the 15:30 price.
Questions? Please email me: Marlin@mrtopstep.com
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Covid Corner:
New York is on the early warning for a 2nd rise coming into September.
To use our table, go to https://t2r4.com/cv19/views. Each column is sortable and if you click on a cell you will get a time-based chart of the state.
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Chart of the Day
Our View
Is The S&P Pricing In A Trump Win?
It’s been an epic battle and the buyers have not only won, they have killed the enemy. I can not rule out a correction/pullback but trying to pick the exact time and price for the decline has proven to be an elusive task. One of the rules I have initiated recently goes like this; ‘don’t short the S&P because you’re not long’. You look at your screen and say ‘ I can’t buy the ES, it’s up too much’. So what do you do? You sell it and it goes your way for a bit then the ES rallies 25 handles. I also think there is a ‘the ES is up too much to buy and too firm to sell’ mentality floating around, clearly, the higher the futures go the thinner it has gotten. The PitBull insists that the low volume is a bad omen.
The first trading day of September did three things; pushed the S&P and Nasdaq to new all-time highs and the Dow above 29,000. As of yesterday, the S&P has closed higher 9 out of the last 10 sessions. I continue to think zero rates and all the liquidity the Fed is the main driver of the rally but I also think part of it could be that the markets are starting to price in a Trump election win. I am not saying I back him but it seems like there is a sizable shift going on in the polls. In fact, political scientist Helmut Norpoth, a professor at Stony Brook University’s Department of Political Science who boasts an 83% success rate over the last 25 years in predicting presidential elections says Trump will win by a landslide in November. Norpoth’s model predicts President Trump has a 90% chance of defeating former Vice President Joe Biden. I don’t know how the election will end up but I do know the loser will contest the vote. That’s when things will get really messy …
Our view, the ugliest rally in history is sitting pretty. It continues to forge high in spite of historically low job growth and a growing list of problems. Our lean is to sell the early rallies and buy the pullbacks but with the idea that a drop over the next few days is possible. The jobs number is Friday and Monday is Labor Day and the exchanges are closed but the day after the holiday has been up 16 of the last 25 occasions.
Market Vitals Technical Analysis
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As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
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