Market Review
GLOBEX
| (ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session | (ESH20:CME) Day Session |
| High 3909.75 | Opening Print: 3493.75 |
| Low: 3482.50 | High 3506.75 |
| Volume: 280,000 | Low: 3480.75 |
| ES Settlement 3503.75 | |
| Total Volume 1.2 Milliion |
S&P 500 RECAP – Trade Date 08/28/ 2020
#ES Money Maker Chart
#ES; Late Friday ‘Rip’
After trading up to 3509.50 in the overnight session, the S&P 500 futures opened Friday’s regular session hours at 3493.75, up 8.50 handles, but 15.75 off the Globex high. From there, the futures sold off down to 3480.75, finding a bottom just before 10:00 a.m., and then rallied 16.00 handles to 3496.75 for the morning high.
The early afternoon saw a pullback to 3486.50 where the 10 handle rule came into effect, and the S&Ps placed a higher low and resumed the buy pressure with the ES climbing throughout the afternoon, through the final hour and printing a high of day of 3506.75 just before the cash close. The ESU20 settled the day at 3503.75, up 18.50 handles or +0.53%.
In terms of volume, it was a light day with 1.2 million contracts traded. Meanwhile, the price action gave way to sellers on the open but the 11:00 buy programs won the day with a 16.00 handle rally, including a late Friday RIP.
Economic Calendar
Closing Prices
In the Tradechat Room
MiM
A very small MIM for the end of the week. Today we should get a decent EOM MOC.
Questions? Please email me: Marlin@mrtopstep.com
Get the skinny when we get it: Join the MiM.
Covid-19
We continue to track Covid-19 across all 50 states, DC, and Puerto Rico to gain a better understanding of what is happening. While detected cases continue to expand, we are not seeing the equivalent expansion in hospitalizations and deaths. Our table uses 7-day averages and takes a 5-day linear regression slope in order to detect changes as quickly as possible. We score each state by a normalized slope and ranking in each category (infected, admitted, and deaths).
Continued downside moves for all 3 as CA and TX are both about 50% off the peak. Florida continues to lead, albeit at a slower pace then before.
We continue to focus on our top 3, Florida (20M pop), Texas (30M), and California (40M) looking at daily deaths, but more importantly, changes in the count.
Florida has stalled which is interesting, we would expect to be hitting that 50% down by now and be below 90, that is something to watch for this week. We wanted to see CA roll harder by the end of last week, that is starting to happen and Texas is slowly deflating, also.
Over / Under
These are the over/under numbers for today. In order to push the 7-day average lower, today’s reported numbers need to be lower than the target number. A new case or death number that is higher will increase the 7-day average.
Yesterday’s over/under numbers and actual are also in the table.
| Yesterday | Yesterday | Today | Today | |
| State | Cases | Deaths | Cases | Deaths |
| Florida | 2,974 / 2,583 | 51 / 14 | 2,258 | 72 |
| Texas | 4,398 / 3,824 | 104 / 90 | 2,847 | 25 |
| California | 6,777 / 6,070 | 146 / 71 | 4,946 | 18 |
| New York | 572 / 698 | 6 / 8 | 408 | 7 |
Use today’s numbers to watch the releases to determine the trend.
To use our table, go to https://t2r4.com/cv19/views. Each column is sortable and if you click on a cell you will get a time-based chart of the state.
Wear your masks!
Stay Home!
Chart of the Day
Switch Day; Salesforce, Amgen, Honeywell to Join Dow Jones Industrial Average
Exxon, Pfizer, Raytheon Exit Index /AAPL & TSLA Spit
It’s just after 7:00 PM Sunday night and the ES just traded up to 3522.00!!! It truly is the gift that keeps on giving. I had a feeling the ES could see 3550 but I have to be honest, I didn’t think it would happen so fast. I really believe we have never seen anything like it. That said, there is one thing for sure, do you know what it is? You should! The trend is your friend, especially when the feds printing presses are running fulltime. It was exactly 6 Months ago that the COVID19 lock downs began and look at the Nasdaq Composite chart below:
At Friday’s close the Nasdaq Comp was up 30% YTD. The S&P is lagging and is up 8.58% on the year. Today the Apple and Tesla Inc stock splits take affect today.
And the real laggard is the Dow Jones Industrial Average which is only up 0.40%. The Dow has struggled to keep up with the broader S&P 500 market which has more tech stocks but will be getting a big makeover today. S&P Dow Jones Indices, which manages the 30-stock benchmark, said it would add Salesforce.com Inc., Amgen Inc., and Honeywell International Inc. to the blue-chip index at the start of trading on Monday. Those three stocks will replace Exxon XOM 2.39% Mobil Corp., Pfizer Inc., and Raytheon Technologies Corp., respectively. In most cases when big name stocks are replaced it causes selling late in the day.
Our view, in addition to the stock ‘switches’ and ‘splits’ today, Zoom, Crowdstrike, MongoDB, DocuSign, and Broadcom all report earnings this week. While writing the view, the ES has rallied up to 2524.25. At the end of June the ES was trading around 3000.00. That’s over 500 handles in two months.Sometimes the markets don’t like stock splits and stock switches. That said, AAPL and TSLA are not your average companies. Our lean is to sell the gap up open and look for an early drop to cover and look for the mid-morning low. Like I said above, I am more concerned about the stock switches then the splits. There were many times that my S&P desk got busy late in the day when the switches take place and the late day selling shows up.
Market Vitals Technical Analysis
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As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
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