Market Review
On Wednesday, the ES tried to buck its pattern of selling off in the morning and bottoming later in the day. It did run some stops, all on the downside, but overall it held up better than it has over the last few weeks.
The ES dipped below the Globex low at 4430.75 and bottomed at 4427.50 in the opening minutes of the regular-hours trading session. We chopped around for the rest of the morning as the ES put in a series of higher lows.
At noon the ES took off and kept working its way higher until the close, ending at 4474.25 at 4:00 and 4476.50 at the 5:00 futures close. Overall, the ES climbed over 37 points or 0.84%.
Economic Calendar
Closing Prices
In the TradeChat Room
Market On Close: $504M to buy, but the market knew better.
Check out all the Market Closing action in our daily post
Questions? Please email me: Marlin@mrtopstep.com
Get the skinny when we get it: Join the MiM.
.
SpyGate: Bots played a little in the AM, some in the afternoon and a lot at the close.
Check out our Daily SpyGate Post
SpyGate is now available free to members of IMPRO and MIM trading room. Join the MiM.
Baxter
Baxter is our new AI trading helper. This data is early, new, and not very well tested but we want to share some of our findings. We are concentrating on the SP500 which should benefit ES futures and SPY traders.
Yesterday:
68% 09:30 — > 10:00 (wrong)
30% 15:30 –> 16:00 (right) ~15:45
Low:
33% 12:00 –> 15:30 (weak prediction) (wrong ~09:41)
Today:
High:
60% 09:30 — > 10:00
17% 15:30 –> 16:00
Low:
75% 10:00 –> 12:00
Chart of the Day
How S&P 500 turned $10,000 into $78,000 — or $3 million
“It hasn’t paid to be bullish” on U.S. stocks at this time of year, according to Barry B. Bannister, Stifel Nicolaus & Co.’s head of institutional equity strategy. He cited a comparison between the value of $10,000 investments in the S&P 500 Index from 1950 in a report Monday. Anyone who owned the S&P 500 only in May through October would have ended up with about $78,000 based on total return, according to data compiled by Stifel. For November through April, the comparable total was about $3 million. To be sure, Bannister wrote that investing year-round would have turned $10,000 into $24.9 million.
Our View
The ES bounced exactly where we were watching yesterday — the 50-day moving average. It was highlighted on the chart very clearly, but so was the 4480 to 4485 area.
After Wednesday’s rally, we have an “inside day,” where yesterday’s range is completely within the prior day’s range (it’s on the chart below, too). That’s even as it gave us a nice rally.
On the upside, we need to see the ES clear Wednesday’s high of 4477.75, along with the 10-day and 21-day moving averages. On the downside, the 50-day remains the focus, as we come into the last two days of the week and ahead of Quad Witching expiration on Friday.
Our Lean: Remember the dips into Thursday, as they can sometimes set up for a bullish squeeze higher in the afternoon or on Friday. The ES is down 10 handles as of 8:00 a.m., so perhaps we’ll get an early low to trade against.
These sessions can be choppy and if you’re getting chopped up, remember, cash is a position too! Don’t force it.
As we all know, there’s no crystal ball when it comes to trading stocks, options, or futures. But the Market Imbalance Meter may be as close as it comes. Knowing how the “Big Money” is placing its bets can give our trading room a big wave to ride — or a warning sign to stay out of the water. Come check it out now, risk-free for 30 days.
Danny Riley is a 39-year veteran of the CME trading floor. He ran one of the largest S&P desks on the floor of the CME Group since 1985.
As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Decisions to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
No responses yet