Our View

Recap

As expected, the jobs number and the September Week 1 options expiration provided an uptick in volatility.

The ES initially rallied up to 6540.75 after the nonfarm payroll came out at 22k vs 75k forecast. It opened at 6533.50, down 22.5 points, rallied up to 6542.00 at 9:48, and then sold off 90 points down to 6452.00 at 11:06. It made a few higher lows, rallied up to 6489 at 11:42, traded back down to a higher low of 6464.75 at 1:42, then traded up to 6492.75 at 3:24.

It traded 6486 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $1.4 billion to buy, traded 6491.00 on the 4:00 cash close, and settled at 6489.75, down 21 points or -0.32% on the day.

In the end, you had to know there was going to be some rock & roll—and there was. New highs, then dump. Great stuff. In terms of the ES’s overall tone, it closed down, but the NQ managed to close higher. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was high all day with 1.643 million contracts traded.

I don’t know enough about how this all works, but Friday’s jobs number consensus was 75k, and nonfarm payroll comes out at 22k? That’s an average of only 29k/month over the last three months. That’s good news for rate cut expectations, but what happens? The ES tanked because people are waking up to the idea of slower growth and a recession. That’s the part I understand.

The week ahead includes eight economic reports, including PPI on Wednesday, CPI on Thursday, and Consumer Sentiment on Friday. There’s no scheduled Fed speak, and we have earnings from Oracle (ORCL), Adobe (ADBE), Kroger (KR), and a few treasury auctions:

Treasury Auction Details for September 2025

Our View

If you think the jitters are going to go away, then you better get flat. Yes, I still think the trend is up, but that doesn’t mean we won’t see some drops along the way.

Obviously, it’s all about the inflation data this week, but don’t forget about next week’s September 16–17 two-day Fed meeting and the dreaded $5.1 trillion September triple witching. I want to remind everyone that the CME rollover doesn’t start on the Thursday before; it starts the week of expiration. Meaning, you can still trade the September contracts until Monday or all the way into Friday morning before the regular session opens (which I do not advise).

There may be some quiet time this week, but with PPI on Wednesday, CPI on Thursday, and Consumer Sentiment plus the September quarterly expiration on Friday, we’re almost guaranteed to see some movement.

Our Lean

The ES has been down 9 of the last 16 sessions and closed at the same level it did on 8/28, with three of those closing above 6500.00. If you look at a monthly chart, it looks like a series of new highs followed by 100 to 250-point pullbacks. I don’t think the grind gets any easier, especially as we head into the latter part of September and the end-of-quarter rebalance

Our lean: Buy the early pullbacks. Barring some headlines, I think volume could drop a bit over the next two days. That said, there have been a lot of failed rallies above 6500.00.

Here are some support levels I’ll be watching:
6492, 6487.50, 6484.00, 6479.00, 6474.00, 6465, 6459.00, 6440.00, 6420.00

Our Lean — Danny’s Trade (Premium Only)

Today’s BTS Levels:

ES

The bull/bear line for the ES is at 6492.50. This level will dictate directional bias for today. Holding above it favors buyers, while staying below it suggests continued weakness.

Currently, ES is trading around 6505.75, slightly above the bull/bear line. If price holds this area, the next upside test is 6515.75, with further resistance at our upper range target of 6545.25 and then 6595. 

On the downside, initial support sits at 6489.75, followed by 6452. A break below 6452 puts focus on the lower range target at 6439.75, with deeper support down near 6390.25.

Overall, bias leans bullish while ES holds above 6492.50. Sustained trade under that level, however, would shift control back to the sellers.

NQ

The bull/bear line for the NQ is at 23,691.75. This is the key pivot level to track for directional bias. Holding above this level keeps the near-term tone constructive, while sustained trade below it signals weakness.

Currently, NQ is trading at 23,785.50, which is above the bull/bear line. This suggests buyers have short-term control and can look for continuation towards the upside targets. The first resistance is at 23,902, and then the upper range target comes in at 23,938.25. A breakout and hold above this zone would further strengthen bullish momentum.

On the downside, if NQ fails to hold above 23,691.75, the pressure increases back towards 23,445.25, the lower range target for today. A break below this level would open the door for further downside into 23,213.25.

Additional resistance is noted near 23,902, just under the 23,938.25 level. Support levels to monitor are 23,505 and then 23,445.25.

Overall, the bias remains bullish while holding above 23,691.75, with upside objectives toward 23,938.25 and 24,170.25. Failure to hold that pivot would shift momentum back to the downside with risk of testing 23,445.25 and lower.