PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 21 January: ASX 200 futures are pointing down 56 points or 0.6 per cent to 8732 | S&P 500 lower in broad selling, gold rallies | Copper explorers in the Americas are sitting pretty thanks to soaring prices |

Copper explorers in the Americas are sitting pretty thanks to soaring prices

• Copper price hits +US$13,000/t this month
• Sector sees M&A activity from majors like Glencore and BHP
• Price moves bode well for explorers in the Americas like Buxton Resources

Turns out Citi’s US$13,000/t copper forecast for the second quarter of 2026 hit a little early.

Prices soared to a new record of $13,387.50/t earlier this month before settling down to $12,803/t on Monday according to the London Metal Exchange.

The red metal already gained momentum late last year, hitting US$12,000/t after its largest annual dollar increase in at least a decade, according to BMI.

Hopes for stronger US economic growth and a sustained 5% GDP growth rate in China, now accounting for close to 60% of refined copper consumption, supported stronger demand for the commodity.

The run was also heavily influenced by production downgrades from companies like Teck Resources, Codelco, Anglo American and Ivanhoe Mines, and the mudslide incident that sent Freeport’s massive Grasberg mine in Indonesia into mothballs.

Not to mention, a strike at Capstone Copper’s (ASX:CSC) Mantoverde copper-gold mine in northern Chile has renewed fears of disruptions.

US rhetoric around potential copper tariffs has added to price pressure.

Last month, ANZ’s Daniel Hynes said in a note that easing monetary policy was boosting sentiment after a third straight US rate cut this week. Only one more cut has been plotted by officials next year, but money markets are pricing in two, he noted.

“The Fed delivered a widely expected cut and upgraded its growth forecast for the US economy. It now expects growth to hit 2.3% next year, up from its previous target of 1.8%,” Hynes said.

“The combination of lower interest rates and stronger economic growth should boost copper demand.

“This comes as the new demand centres emerge. Traders remain concerned that supply may be impacted by the ongoing pull of metal into the US, driven by concerns about a US tariff on refined metal following a review of the sector.”

M&A puts spotlight on Americas

Against this backdrop, M&A among majors to boost copper production and growth opportunities has been supercharged.

And the real action has focused on the Americas, where the world’s largest copper operations are based.

In December, Glencore outlined plans to grow output to 1.6Mt by 2035, much of that in Chile after a planned lift from 810-870,000t in 2026 to 1Mt in 2028.

Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO) plans to hit 1Mtpa by 2030, up from 860-875,000t in 2025.

The majors recently confirmed speculation they are in live discussions on a $300bn scrip tie-up.

That would see them gazump BHP (ASX:BHP) as the world’s biggest miner by market cap and close in on its position as the world’s top copper producer.

BHP itself is ramping up output, lifting guidance to 1.9-2Mt in FY26 at its quarterly results on Tuesday and counts as the world’s largest producer.

The firm’s biggest M&A moves recently have seen it acquire OZ Minerals and pay US$2bn for a half stake in the Filo Del Sol and Josemaria projects in Argentina’s Vicuña district alongside Lundin Mining. But BHP has also taken multiple stabs at Anglo American, which owns large, tier-1 copper mines in Chile and Peru.

In other major copper moves, SolGold announced a $1.2bn takeover by top investor Jiangxi Copper last month, in a deal which gives Jiangxi control of the Cascabel project in Ecuador’s Imbabura province.

China’s CMOC paid C$581m last year to acquire Lumina Gold, owner of the Cangrejos gold-copper project in Ecuador, while Fortescue (ASX:FMG) announced a C$139m offer to mop up the rest of Alta Copper it doesn’t own, as it looks to diversify from iron ore with the Cañariaco project in Peru.

Source: Stockhead