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Copper forecasts electrify the market as small producers pursue growth

• There were plenty of copper talking points at the recent Cesco Week 2026 in Santiago
• Despite some risks, analysts from Canadian bank BMO see further price upside
• It’s a good time for Aussie juniors to be expanding production

Despite a slightly bearish tone and some obvious challenges ahead, Cesco Week 2026 left analysts feeling like the copper price could touch new highs within weeks.

Cesco Week in Santiago is the largest annual gathering of the copper sector and was attended by analysts from Canadian investment bank BMO Capital Markets.

Helen Amos and George Heppel said the key talking points at the event were the impact of the Iran War, sulphuric acid shortages, a return of the US arbitrage and the challenges facing Western copper miners.

“Despite collective agreement that the Iran conflict has strengthened the structural case for copper demand, most participants held cautious views on copper prices over the remainder of this year, based on concerns over copper stockpiles and economic damage from the Iran conflict,” they said.

“That said, almost every industry gathering over the course of this multi-year upcycle in copper prices and margins has had a similar bearish tone.”

Despite conflict headwinds, BMO has a more constructive view on prices, though it acknowledged we were still in “somewhat unknown territory”.

“We’re encouraged by the price point at which Chinese buying returned to buy the dip (circa US$12,000) after the initial conflict sell-off, and the speed at which domestic onshore inventories are now drawing,” Amos and Heppel said.

“With the US copper arb back in play, speculative positioning cleaner now, and a modest amount of supply at risk from sulphur shortages, our base case for now, absent another leap higher in oil prices, is that copper prices could challenge the highs we saw back in January in a matter of weeks.”

BMO’s long-term “through cycle” price assumption is US$10,850 per tonne (real, 2026) or US$12,200/t (nominal, 2030).

“However, given we seem to have another few years on the steep upwards slope of the power and AI capex curve, plus regional stockpiling, prices seem likely to trade significantly above this for some time,” the note said.

BMO’s base case copper price forecast is an average US$13,100/t for the December quarter of 2026 and US$13,425/t for 2027.

While it’s challenging bringing on new copper supply, these four juniors are doing it against the backdrop of a strong price.

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Source: Stockhead