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Our View

The ES gapped higher, rallied up to 6440.00, then made a late-day low at 6396.25 and traded 6406.00 on the 4:00 cash close, down 0.48%. It settled at 6403.50, down 19.5 points or -0.30% on the day.

In the end, the lack of a U.S.-China trade deal weighed on the indexes. Talks ended without a resolution, and the ES was coming off its 6th-highest close and 16th new all-time high in 2025, which weighed on the indexes. I think Monday’s wishy-washy price action of failed rallies bled into Tuesday’s trade. The U.S. and China now have two weeks to extend a deadline or resume historically high tariffs on each other’s imports.

I had a feeling this wasn’t over. Call me crazy, but Trump’s Putin threats are exactly what the Russians want—dragging the U.S. further into the conflict.

In terms of the ES’s overall tone, the gap up and small rally early on used up all the buying. After that, every rally failed.

The Mix

The dollar extended its recent rally, strengthening against the euro, the British pound, and the Canadian dollar. Bonds were up, with yields on the 10-year notes falling to 4.329% again. WTI crude closed up 1.21%, Brent crude closed up 1.07%, and natural gas jumped 3.15% after Trump reiterated that the U.S. may impose additional levies on Russia unless it reaches a truce with Ukraine.

On Tap

Today’s key events:

$META and $MSFT both report after the close. Bank of America anticipates Meta could exceed consensus, potentially reaching $45.5 billion in revenue, which is at the higher end of Meta’s guidance. Citigroup reiterated a buy rating and increased Microsoft’s price target to $613.00, calling it their “top pick” in software.

Guest Posts — Polaris Trading Group

Prior Session was Cycle Day 2: Early push above prior RTH high failed to sustain a bid, resulting in “Peek-a-Boo” PKB (a.k.a. Look Above/Below and Fail Reversal).

Break below the Open Range and the 6425 Line in the Sand (LIS) opened the door to a bearish Cycle Day 2. Long liquidation gained downside momentum progressively throughout the day, closing below the 6408.75 Cycle Day 1 Low. 

Range was 46 handles on 1075M contracts exchanged.

…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3

Transition into Cycle Day 3: For Cycle Day 3 (CD3) price is below the CD1 Low (6408.75) which has a 91.11% historical Positive 3-Day Cycle performance record.

Main Event for today is the FOMC Statement and the “Powell-Presser” previewed below.

Here’s what’s expected for the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement and press conference on Wednesday, July 30, 2025.

📌 FOMC Statement & Vice‑Chair Jerome Powell Presser

What markets anticipate:

✅ Key Takeaways:

Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.

PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.

As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading. 

Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 6405+-, initially targets 6425 – 6430 zone. 

Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 6405+-, initially targets 6385 – 6380 zone.

PVA High Edge = 6421    PVA Low Edge = 6398         Prior POC = 6410

Thanks for reading, PTGDavid

MiM and Daily Recap

The overnight Globex session opened at 6424.25 and initially pushed higher, tagging an early swing high of 6434.75 at 2:00 AM. A shallow pullback to 6428.75 at 2:45 AM was quickly followed by a rally that carried ES to its Globex high of 6442.50 by 7:00 AM. However, that strength proved short-lived. A downturn began before the cash open, with a dip to 6432.50 at 8:45 AM and a final premarket pop to 6440.00 at 9:30 AM, setting the stage for sellers to take control. The session settled at 6437.00, up 12.75 handles from the open, a gain of 0.20%.

The cash session opened at 6436.75 and initially attempted to hold gains, but a persistent wave of selling pressure took over. From the 9:30 AM high of 6440.00, the ES fell sharply to a low of 6400.00 at 11:40 AM, shedding 40 points or -0.62% in the morning drop. Buyers stepped in midday, pushing prices up to 6419.25 at 1:00 PM for a 19.25-point rebound. That bounce was short-lived as another slide followed into 6402.25 at 1:50 PM. A 10-point bounce from that level into 2:40 PM was followed by selling into the low of the day (for the session and full day) of 6396.25 or 15.5 points from the previous lower high.

A modest afternoon lift to 6408.00 at 3:55 PM failed to gather momentum as the ES drifted to close the regular session at 6406.00, down 30.75 points from the open, a decline of 0.48%. Total day session range was 43.75 points. The combined full session closed at 6403.50, a net loss of 17.00 handles or -0.26% from the prior day’s cash close.

Volume was solid with 937,402 contracts changing hands during the cash session, and a total of 1,075,639 across all sessions. Cleanup trading between 4:00 PM and 5:00 PM saw ES drift modestly lower to 6403.50, trimming another 2.75 points.

Market Tone & Notable Factors

Tuesday’s action revealed a clear shift in tone, with the early Globex strength met by firm resistance just before the regular session began. Despite an overnight gain, the cash session’s early optimism faded quickly under broad-based selling. The failed rallies into both 1:00 PM and late afternoon illustrated sellers’ continued control.

Breadth was weak into the close, and the Market-on-Close imbalance reflected heavy sell pressure. At 3:55 PM, the MiM showed a -$881M net imbalance to sell, with 3,099 sell orders versus 2,219 buys. Though the symbol imbalance did not breach the ±66% threshold (ending at -55.2%), the monetary weight helped drive the final low of day print at 6396.25.

In summary, despite the early Globex pop, the session closed with a broad-based retreat that saw the ES lose -0.48% during regular trading and -0.26% on the full day. The inability to hold the 6400s, even with late-day buying attempts, suggests a cautious tone heading into Wednesday’s session.

How to read the MIM

Technical Edge 

Fair Values for July 30, 2025:

Daily Market Recap 📊

For Tuesday, July 29, 2025

Weekly Market  📈

For the week ending Friday, July 25, 2025

Calendars

Economic

Today

Important Upcoming / Recent

Earnings

Upcoming

Recent

Full Calendar

Trading Room Summaries

Polaris Trading Group Summary – Tuesday, July 29, 2025

Overview:
Tuesday’s session followed a disciplined game plan, with key levels and scenarios playing out precisely, especially in the NQ, CL, and ES markets. PTGDavid emphasized preparation, patience, and clear scenario-based execution, setting the tone for tomorrow’s anticipated FED Day.

Key Highlights and Positive Trades

Lessons and Insights

Afternoon Market Context

Summary Takeaway

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Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.

Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!