Market Review
Our thoughts and prayers go out to anyone who may be affected/infected by the devastating virus that is spreading. Last check, 83,726 infected with at least 2,859 deaths. That’s up a lot since last Friday.
PREVIOUS DAY — THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 27, 2020
On February 27 price opened at 3053 2/8, 56 2/8 handles down from settlement.
Since I’m in Colorado and close to the Rocky Mountains I’m going with a winter theme.
If today was compared to skiing, the best way to describe today’s trade is for “Black Lanes Only!”
It’s only dangerous if you are not an experienced skier on the black lanes. I’ve been on a BLACK LANE once, and I SHOULD HAVE NOT BEEN ON IT AT ALL…
Yes, I know what it feels like to go airborne without a notion of how to land…
That’s why we use stops. On yesterday’s black lane, your stop may have been at 4 handles due to the Whippy/Algo movement. There were only a few times when the lane turned white that your order may have been normal. Around 1:15 p.m. comes to mind on that third test.
IMPRO: Wyckoff Trader :(8:45:24 AM) : good morning today is S2H IFFY and the SPILL is down.
IMPRO: Wyckoff Trader :(9:57:10 AM) : hows that for a wild ride!
IMPRO: Wyckoff Trader :(10:46:51 AM) : If you are S2H that capper SELL put the seal on the AM HIGH at 10:07 marker; window still open
Perhaps the best way to look at the market is not to be so myopic but a bigger picture perspective. Say, a daily. And what do you see? (one wild ride) Look at that range!
As traders, we all are just reaching for the bottom. Looking to catch that falling knife. When we should be waiting for the top of that latest rally to stop and rollover…
IMPRO: Dboy :(10:42:31 AM) : thing is we keep talking lower prices and we’re not selling it !!!
Globex has touched 2879 handle. Is it oversold? Did it touch the Last Point of Support from Oct-19?
I’d say yes. We use the word potential. The market / Algos do not understand Wyckoff and the market can remain irrational more than a trader can maintain their logic…
Something about catching those falling knives appears to the “Here I am to save the day” (Andy Koffuman) in all of us intraday traders. The best advice I can give you comes from Dboy from above.
I wanted to give a personal thank to all the folks who have subscribed from Friday’s Opening Print. The latest subscriber is an airplane pilot looking to trade full time in the near future. Most traders are trading from six to eight to twelve years.
Today the clock showed us the way with an S2H (AM HIGH as potential high of day) but it may have NOT been the best day to trade if you do not like quick moves with carnage at every turn.
LOOKING FORWARD — FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 28, 2020
The old-school boys in the 1930s did not have the same problem we have today. They always held a position and closed it only at higher support on the secondary test by doubling the position. And of course, they did not have overnight Globex.
Once again Globex has taken price down further to 2879 handle. We are trading on Global news and how it may affect corporate profits. By my eye yes I see some buying. But that buying has deep pockets that can carry a trade longer than most in the seat folks.
Could we go lower? Perhaps. It’s the volume we have to look at. We had a great week and were able to catch some good moves at the levels. It won’t happen every day, week, month, or year. It did happen this week.
My notion is that there is buying on the dips and selling on the rallies. With constant selling pressure. Jesse Livermore would say after a strong week of selling pressure expect the pressure to lift on Friday?
As you can see this is issue number 617. I’ve written 617 issues and have given our faithful subscribers over 4,344 points to date with 628 trades since August 8, 2018. Just this week our subscribers have been very lucky with the levels given: 60 points Monday, 7 points Tuesday, 84 points Wednesday, and 2 points Thursday. Total for the week 153 points, that would be $7,650 on 1 lot and $22,950 on 3 lots.
I’ll be the first to say, it does NOT happen every week. When it does it’s a beautiful thing!
I would love for you to join us. Click the link below to learn more.
Economic Calendar
Closing Prices
In the Tradechat Room
MiM
Down to new lows. The closes have all been red this week and yesterday was no exception. Rumor had it that our MIM was under-reporting and a large sell would materialize at the 3:50 pm number. We saw that with 4.4B to sell and accelerating selling into the close.
Get the skinny when we get it. Join the MiM.
HFTAlerts
Our HFT alert triggered a whopping 575 times! Programs as still very active. Next week a new HFAlert app will be released that will have some interesting stats built-in. Stay tuned.
Chart of the Day
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Globex
| (ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session | (ESH20:CME) Day Session |
| High 3117.00 | Opening Print: 3053.50 |
| Low: 3053.75 | High 3096.25 |
| Volume: 1.05M | Low: 2935.25 |
| ES Settlement: 2956.00 Down 144 handles | |
| Total Volume: 4.64M |
S&P 500 Futures: Stock Market Crash FLASH CRASH; *CALIFORNIA MONITORING 8400 PEOPLE FOR COVID-19 VIRUS: GOVERNOR
The ES made a high at 3117 and a low at 3053.75 on Globex with nearly 1.1 million contracts traded. On Thursday morning’s 8:30 CT futures open the ES traded 3053.50. After the open, the ES down ticked shot up to 3069.25 and then dropped 36 handles down to 3032.25 all in the first 15 minutes of the session. The ES shot back up to the 3062 area at 8:56 am and as more bad news about the coronavirus hit the tape it sold off down to 3048.50 at 9:14 and 21 min. later made the low at 3006. After the low, the ES traded back up to 3025 in two minutes, down ticked and then traded up to 3045.00 at 9:51 and then popped up to 3063.25 at 10:01 then up to 3065.00, traded 3069 and then sold off 34 handles back down to 3035 at 10:46. From there the ES traded up to 3085.75 at 11:19, then down to 3062.50 at 11:24 then straight up to 3096.25, a 90 handle rally in just over 2 hours. The ES then traded back down to 3074.25, rallied back up to 3092.75 at 12:13 and then traded down to the 3066 area at 12:30. And then a headline hit saying California has thousands on in-home quarantine, recession risk to the U.S.; nearly 7,000 travelers in CA asked to monitor and isolate themselves and the ES sold off down to 3039 in 5 minutes. The ES popped back up to 3060, dropped back down to the 3049 level then down to the 3030 level, 66 handles off the high. After the low prints, the ES traded back up to 3051.50 and chopped around in a 10 handle range for 10 minutes then in came the 2:00 sell program.
At 2:00 the ES traded 3026 as the early MiM showed $432 million to sell and ripped up to 3043 six minutes later. At 2:30 the ES traded 3022.00 as the MiM showed $398 million to sell. On the 2:50 cash imbalance, the ES traded 3006.00 as the final MiM showed sell $4 billion. On the 3:00 cash close, the ES traded 2977.00 and settled at 3056.00 on the 3:15 futures close, down 144 handles or -4.65% on the day.
In terms of the ES’s overall tone, it was extremely weak. In terms of the day’s overall trade, total volume was oversized. Total ES volume was 4.6 million with 1 million coming from Globex making total day volume 3.6 million contracts traded on the day session.
Our View
600 Buy And Sell Programs By 2:00 CT / VIX Up 45%
According to @HFTAlert :(2:06:16 PM CT) : 900,000 $SPY trades on the session now… 511 programs of size, 222 buys, 287 sells and that was with one hour till the cash closes. This is what you are up against, non-stop algorithms and HFT programs battling it out while you’re trying your best to make some money trading. I have two questions 1) how did it come to this and 2) how can we compete? And at @HFTAlert :(2:40:58 PM CT) :975,000 $SPY trades… 27.6 million quote changes. And this @HFTAlert :(3:49:34 PM) : 1 million $SPY trades… most I have ever seen in a day. The closed up VIX 45%.
I am not going to do a big view. I have said for the last 2 + weeks that I thought ES 2900 was in play and the speed of the decline tells me there is more to come. Say what you like but that late day sell program combined with the MiM’s $4billion to sell was all EFT liquidation. There were NO bids!!!!
Our view, I don’t think I need to say this again but I will. I do not doubt the ES can bounce but I don’t think we are at or near the low of this move down. The bulls are still talking shit and saying, buy, buy, buy and that brings me back to my old saying; bye-bye house, bye-bye car, bye-bye wife.
Market Vitals Technical Analysis
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As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Decisions to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
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