Market Review
ES Zones
Volatility continues to be high this week. We don’t see that dying down anytime soon so our view is very simple, adapt to this and take trades, take profits and stops quickly. The upside to all of this is you have a lot of entries and opportunities all day to trade.
For Today:
- Buy Zone 3052, stop 3047, targets 3076-85+
- Buy Zone 3035, stop 3030, targets 3068 -85+
- Buy Zone 3012, stop 3004, targets 3068-85+
- Buy zone 2978, stop 3072, targets 3011-85+
- Sell Zone 3076, stop 3070, targets 3060-3011+
- Sell Zone 3112, stop 3015, targets 3060-3011+
- Sell zone 3127, stop 3145, targets 3076+
Although it may not seem like it, there is some research we are looking at which suggests that, over the bigger picture, the lows may be in. Don’t count on it but don’t count it out! China has now recovered all the losses from the virus that started the sell-off in the Shanghai Comp.
We currently have this fractal map. If you recall during Ebola, we recovered and made new highs after all was said and done.
For Live zones and chart share, you can join us today on zoom.
ID – 819-562-3358
Best of Luck!
Gagan Daphu
ES Zones
Economic Calendar
Closing Prices
In the Tradechat Room
MiM
4.7B buy on the reveal and up we go into the close. Crazy upside move from 3088 to 3128, another 40 point swing. The Fed? Joe Biden? Nothing is going to save this market in my opinion. As countries begin measures to control the virus, the ramifications of this are unknown at this point and the markets hate unknowns. The best escape will be the return of warm weather in the north and a dampening of the seasonal flu. Until then we will see canceled events, empty halls, and political posturing. China has shown how to stem the contagion and the methods are pretty disruptive. In board rooms all across the world, meetings are happening to gauge the impact on their company. You can expect companies to take advantage of the situation for layoffs and the opportunity to fix books that have progressively become unworkable. Inventory write-offs, restructuring charges, it’s not going to be pretty earnings this quarter. Yesterday’s rise is already forgotten this morning.
Get the skinny when we get it. Join the MiM.
HFTAlerts
Not as active as Tuesday, but still a decent amount of programs with 236, 123 BUYS and 113 SELLS.
Chart of the Day
Cases Outside of China. We need that to flatten more. This is a Log graph.
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Globex
| (ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session | (ESH20:CME) Day Session |
| High 3074.00 | Opening Print: 3058.50 |
| Low: 2976.50 | High 3129.50 |
| Volume: 650k | Low: 3037.50 |
| ES Settlement: 3114.75 | |
| Total Volume: 2.5M |
S&P 500 Futures: #ES +100 Handle Moves; Daily Occurrence
On Globex, the ES traded in a 97.50 handle trading range from a low of 2976.50 to a high of 3074.00 with 650,000 #ES futures traded. On Wednesday morning’s 8:30 CT futures open the ES traded 3058.50, traded up to 3070.25 and then sold off down to 3037.50, rallied up to the 3051 area then sold back off down to 3030.75 and then traded up to 3069 at 9:23 CT, or in 43 minutes. The ES then sold off down to 3066, rallied a little then dumped back down to the 3040 level then bounced up to the 3061 area as Europe closed at 10:30. The next move was back down to 3052 then down to 3041 and then the ES rallied back up to the 3085.00 area at 1:06 CT. Over the next 45 minutes the ES traded all the way up to 3098.25. After the high, the ES got hit by a small sell program that pushed it back down to the 3084 level then it went up and tested the high and pulled back down to the 3090.00 level at 2:08.
At 2:00 the ES traded 3090 as the early MiM showed $200M for sale. On the 2:50 cash imbalance, the ES traded 3111 as the final MiM showed $5bln to buy and the ES then shot up to 3129.00 at 2:58.On the 3:00 cash close, the ES traded 3119 and settled at 3114.75 on the 3:15 futures close, up 117.75 handles or +3.93% on the day.
In terms of overall tone, it was extremely bullish and a complete ‘flip-flop’ from yesterday’s big sell-off. It really looks like you’re supposed to fade the big up and big down days. In terms of the day’s overall trade, total volume was low at 2.5 million with 650,000 coming from Globex making total day volume 1.85 million contracts traded on the day session.
Our View
Down 2.46% Tuesday / Up 4% Wednesday; Is This Ever Going To Stop
I’m not sure what to say. While I called for selling the rallies I actually got long and stayed long at 3058.00. Below was the live post in the MrTopStep forum :
IMPRO: Dboy :(12:16:06 PM) : lost of buy stops above 68.50 up to 3110 -3120
IMPRO: Dboy :(12:21:39 PM) : sold 1 at 3056.00
IMPRO: Dboy :(12:24:01 PM) : I flipped long at 58.00
IMPRO: Dboy :(12:29:46 PM) : Im taking a walk
IMPRO: Dboy :(12:29:53 PM) : Ill blow this if I don’t
IMPRO: Dboy :(12:31:08 PM) : low volume
IMPRO: Dboy :(12:31:48 PM) : 48.75 stop
Unlike many days recently the day started with very low Globex volume. That was the first tip-off. The other part was the ES ladder was extremely thin, at times it was only 10 up. And the third part and key to this was that the ES was trading right at the opening print and I knew there was a lot of stop building up above the 3068 level. The final part was that the stock market was discounting all the negative US coronavirus headlines – United Airlines cut domestic flights, Italy shut all of its schools, California announced its first fatality from a cruise ship from Mexico, the US is short on medical supplies and medical staff could get stretched, it goes on and on. Let’s get this straight, all the talk about a Biden rally is all BS. What yesterday’s rally was about is everyone being offsides, talk that the fed is going to cut rates again this month and global central bank intervention. The bots took that and squeezed the short to death.
Despite the big run-up yesterday it was actually an inside day. Yesterday’s high was 3129.50 and Tuesday morning’s high was 3137.00. Yes, yesterday’s rally was impressive and the recent price action has been drop hard, then rally hard. And yes, the PPT is trying to do a big save job but I don’t think this is even close to over. More than 3,000 doctors have been infected in China and according to official data, at least 22 have died and some medical professionals believe the numbers are even higher which is adding to the uncertainty of other doctors confronting the virus around the world.
Market Vitals Technical Analysis
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As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
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