Market Review
Our thoughts and prayers go out to anyone who may be affected/infected by the devastating virus that is spreading. Last check, 246,762 infected with at least 10,062 deaths. That’s up 5,078 from last Friday.
That may help explain why / what changed human behavior this week
PREVIOUS DAY — THURSDAY, March 19, 2020
On March 19 price opened at 2374 6/8, 105 4/8 handles down from settlement.
The best I can say about this day is that Globex did not have a lock limit. So I gave some levels. They were more like a knife to lemon buttered Salmon…
NYSE floor is closing this Monday. E-Mini floor closed last Monday. What does the mouse do when the cat’s away?
Yea, I’m thinking the ALGOS rule over these markets. We seem to be falling into some weird master plan. That is if you go down rabbit holes. David Icke has some theories he talks on London Real. I have not had a chance to go down that hole yet.
Yes, your stop has increased to 6, 8 to 10 handles to get into/out of a trade. Markets are just whippy. Triple witching today. It may become battle bot against battle bot. Now, regarding the lack of humans on the floor, they said the ALGOS needed to have a licensed broker at the mouse pad. So, who’s running the mouse without a license? Will they be working at/from home?
IMPRO: Wyckoff Trader :(10:19:13 AM) : Yea, Algo’s are in 1,000 of a mini-second now.
Ok, I gave levels yesterday. And we got some trades. There is an old saying, “Don’t marry the trade”. Well, in these cases you may not want to even go out on a date! Times will get better, but not before they get worse. Humans are capitulating and hunkering down. And the Algos are given the opportunity to show their metal.
Give it some time. Keep your powder dry!
For more detail please view the Market Recap Video. In this 18 minute video, I discuss Fair Value and how you can use it to get a read on when a move may be ending. Fair Value was at its extreme, 365, at 9:45 when the opening balance ended and price ripped right back up with a liquidity vacuum.
LOOKING FORWARD — FRIDAY, March 20, 2020
I’m seeing Composite Man in Accumulation not ready for the markup. Sure this could turn into potential Preliminary Support if a #3 Spring takes hold. A #3 Spring is a push downward (southward) that breaks support and finds a new low on greatly increased volume.
Until the marking up can start, price may test the lows to see reduced volume with a test #2 Spring. No test on little to no volume #1 Spring. Currently, we are stuck in a 200 point trading range.
As you can see this is issue number 632. I’ve written 632 issues and have given our faithful subscribers over 4,344 points to date with 628 trades since August 8, 2018. Just this week our subscribers have been very lucky with the levels given: no levels given due to curbs Monday, no levels given due to curbs Tuesday, no levels given due to curbs Wednesday, 13 points Thursday. Total for the week 13 points, that would be $650 on 1 lot and $1,950 on 3 lots.
I’ll be the first to say, it does NOT happen every week. When it does it’s a beautiful thing! I would love for you to join us.
Click the link below to learn more.
Economic Calendar
Closing Prices
In the Tradechat Room
MiM
It is the kind of MiM I like. Slow building and correct. The 3:45 pm decline was a tell on the authenticity and down we went about 50 points. These swings are incredible. Tomorrow is 3x witch, maybe 4x, not sure so expecting a wild day. The weekend will most likely contain deteriorating news, gloom and fear. Their stories will not be about the survivors, it will be about those that were lost unless we show some slowing in bad news, right now we are about doubling stats every 4 days and NYC is a mess.
That reminds me, the NYC floor is closed starting Monday. I hope to have newer information on what that means for the MIM. Our electronic feed will start as usual at 3:50 pm ET I expect. I think they are thinking about starting it sooner. Stay Tuned.
Get the skinny when we get it. Join the MiM.
HFTAlert
Thirty buy programs and 23 sells. No large programs all day, that is day number 2. With our 3B sell on the MIM, I expected to see a high-grade sell program. We did see a couple of moderate programs.
Chart of the Day
Uptick on the fear indicator from CNN Money
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Globex
| (ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session | (ESH20:CME) Day Session |
| High 2460.00 | Opening Print: 2351.50 |
| Low: 2275.00 | High 2306.25 |
| Volume: 620,000 | Low: 2282.75 |
| ES Settlement: 2386.75 | |
| Total Volume: 3.1M |
S&P 500 Futures: S&P, NASDAQ, CRUDE RIP
My charts are ‘imbalance charts’, they show each trade and what was bought and what was sold at each price. I generally can scroll back and get prices but the ‘irrational price action’ requires scrolling back to prices so far and because the ES moves so fast I can’t even get exact times of prices. I love the charts. The guys at InvestorRT say they are old school’ but sometimes old school is good but not in the current environment.
At 2:00 the ES traded 2728 as the early MiM showed $1.1 billion for sale, traded 2427 at 2:30 as the MiM went to $1.8 billion for sale. traded 2421 at 2:50 as the final cash imbalance showed $2.9 billion to sell. On the 3:00 cash close, the ES traded at 2399 and settled at 2386.75 on the 3:15 futures close, down 19 handles or 0.79% on the day. In terms of the ES’s overall tone, it did rally and was trading higher on the day but the late sell-off and lower close was not exactly a ringing endorsement for the bulls. In terms of the day’s overall trade, total volume was 3 million with 620,00 coming from Globex making total day volume 2.38 million contracts traded on the day session.
Our View
US #CoronaVirus Cases Reach 10,000; Going To Rise Sharply
The next crisis is here and has nothing to do with subprime, Bear Stearns or Lehman but that doesn’t mean the fed/government isn’t reacting in the same fashion, it’s printing money like never before. What worries me is that the US can’t pay everyone’s bills and take stakes in companies that may never open again. I am not an economist but I think we all know that’s not going to work.
Our view today is the March Quad Witch expiration. I would post the stats but I do not think they matter in these conditions. I really don’t know. That said, there could be an ‘extra high’ level of volatility this morning and late in the day and possibly all day. I know you’re probably saying volatility is at record highs but when thousands of options expire today it will be like throwing napalm on a fire. I know the ES tends to do big rips late on the last several Fridays but then the ES gets killed Sunday night and Monday. My guess is we see lower prices today and in the coming days we see 2200, and then 2000. I hope all of you are staying safe and not taking risk that will be harmful to the health of your families. We have a long road ahead.
Market Vitals Technical Analysis
Did you know that your premium membership gives you access to our Market Vitals? Click on the image below and get today’s key levels.
As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Decisions to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
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