Market Review
Ok, I must admit. In my heart, I felt yesterday was going to be more of an S1L day but the logical mind convinced me it was an S1H day. Now, WB would have flipped the cycle from a Bull to a Bearish due to the Odds of the spill and last hour.
Ok, Wyckoff, what are you talking about you may be thinking?
As you probably know I have kept the clock since WB’s passing. I’m feeling he may have passed this month around the 12th. I’ll have to check my records. I remember the day…as if it was yesterday…
I talked about it in my latest YouTube video
I started uploading videos to YouTube in a private and public format. I do two PRIVATE videos a day, the first is an Early Read around 9:00 A.M. Eastern, to outline what was in the newsletter and potential updates in the market for the open of the trading day. Then at the end of the day, a Market Recap, to follow through on the current changes in the market from the close of the trading day.
In the subscriber PRIVATE video, I drill down deep in WB’s Hidden clock and the Principles of Wyckoff. It’s available only by URL link and does not show up on YouTube.
In the public videos I’ll strip WB out and leave the Wyckoff in. I already have one comment, please feel free to leave another one
So what happened yesterday? Well the logical mind said they run up the market on every Thursday with the dismal unemployment numbers. Yea, 3.8 million, that’s 3,800,000 people not working. What are we at total, like 30 million? That’s 30,000,000 in six weeks, 20% unemployment in the United States.
I may have talked about that a few weeks ago on a Friday…
But what happened yesterday was not the usual….
Looking at the clock the spill was down and the AM HIGH was at center time, but the bulls dropped the soap on the MID AM LOW and let the bears take it down below the spill late and strong to the 12 o’clock hour!
But what did they do? Sold the market off. Imagine that? I’ve been saying the Composite Man has been selling on every rally. Especially the day they dropped the DOW 300 points and S&P Emini futures 43 points in the middle of the Lunch slog on heavy volume…
Did you get a look at that volume the last hour on Wednesday after the Fed day? And what did overnight Globex do around the stroke of mid midnight? Took it up higher. WB would have said the PEONS got over their skis…
As the 8:30 marker came into view price was already working off the supply line from the 2965 high. And what did the PUNDITS say?
Profit Taking Contributes To Pullback On Wall Street
By my eye they (Composite Man) have been taking profit all this week. Only they needed the Fed to set things right and good news on the Gilead virus treatment to take advantage of a good story to sell into…
I’ve got the YELL at 2935 and the price dropped through like a knife to basil lemon butter salmon.
That’s a great line from Reminiscences of a Stock Market Operator by Jesse Levimore (Wyckoff helped him write), I took advantage of a great opportunity to unload some stock and by 12:00 they never knew what hit them!
On second thought yea, it was an S1H day but I’m going iffy with the S2L day due to the bulls soap drop.
LOOKING FORWARD — FRIDAY, May 1, 2020
Yesterday certainly gave a change in behavior in the way price responded. The upthrust and failure were unable to penetrate the overbought trend line set from March 26 earlier this year. The major shelf of supply from the first drop from grace on February 28 and recovery up to March 3 seems to be more effectual for the selling pressure as latent buying pressure failed to absorb the resting supply.
And in the range from overnight Globex plummeting taking out the past three days’ lows and knocking on heaven’s door on the fourth day low with a Friday. Who wants to go home with a trade on?
I’m good with a pullback. It’s what we need to keep this party started on the bull side!
As you can see this is issue number 661. I’ve written 661issues and have given our faithful subscribers over 4,344 points to date with 628 trades since August 8, 2018. Just this week our subscribers have been very lucky with the levels given: 35 points Monday, 55 Tuesday, 21 points Wednesday, 12 points Thursday. Total for the week 123 points, that would be $6,150 on 1 lot and $18,450 on 3 lots. That is if your brokerage firm allowed you to take every trade.
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MiM
No news is good news and for the last MiM in shutdown April it was a real nothing burger. Right down the middle flipping around positive and negative. The percent numbers for symbols and dollars hovering around 50%. Overall it was slightly negative with 57% of symbols to the sell side, That prevailed in the final three minutes but the 3:50 reveal’s neutral value was taken as positive and the MOC candle rose 7 points.
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Chart of the Day
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Globex
| (ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session | (ESH20:CME) Day Session |
| High 2965.00 | Opening Print: 2914.75 |
| Low: 2901.00 | High 2920.00 |
| Volume: 440,000 | Low: 2883.25 |
| ES Settlement: 2902.50 Down -1.35% | |
| Total Volume: 1.9 M |
S&P 500 Futures: Tech Earnings, Jobless Claims and Trump Weigh on the S&P
There is no doubt the S&P has rebounded and had the best April since 1974. It’s all good, the government and the federal reserve have come to the rescue, bailing out everything from hot dog stands to some of the largest US corporations. After rallying all the way up to 2965 on Globex the ES sold off all the way down to 2902.50 and traded 2914.75 on Thursday’s 8;30 CT futures open. The ES upticked and traded up to 2915.75 and sold off down to 2893.50 at 8:38, rallied up to new highs at 2920 at 9:30 and then the futures got hit by several tech sell programs that pushed the futures down to a lower low at 2883.00 at 11:33. After a push back up to 2902, the ES traded 2883, rallied and then double-bottomed at 2886 and steadily rallied back up to the 2900 level.
At 2:00 CT the ES traded 2890, traded 2903.00 at 2:30 and traded 2943.25 as the 2:50 cash imbalance showed $368 million to buy. On the 3:00 cash close, the #ES traded 2909.50 and settled at 2902.50, down 60.75 handles or -2.05% on the day.
In terms of the ES’s tone, after the largest up month in over 46 years, the big tech companies took profits on the last trading day of April. In terms of the day’s overall trade, a total of 1.9 million ES traded with 440,000 from Globex making total volume 1.46 million on the day session. That’s slightly higher but nowhere near the 4.5 to 5.5 million traded a month ago.
Our View
S&P Falls 2%, Is The Bear Back?
Some would argue the bull was never gone but don’t try and sell that to the holders of all those ETF in peoples’ 401ks. We all know that when the markets sell off hard the buyers disappear in the ETFs and as they do so does the money in your account. Hey, you know what? After a 480% rally from the March 2009 credit crisis low to this year’s high you had to know the party was going to end at some point.
I think the second leg of the sell-off is not far off. I do not have the insight that the PitBull does when it comes to things like FAANG, MSFT, GOOG, AAPL, FB and so on. He has charted hundreds of stocks a day for the last 50 years and those charts talk to him. He sees the levels, he can do all the math in his head, prices and trends lines, prior high and lows, you name it he has charted it and traded it. That all said, over the years when the tide is turning the PitBull uses ‘keywords’ that led me to believe things have gotten to a turning point.
I want to lay out the NQM trading range from Wednesday’s 5:00 CT Globex session to after yesterday’s Globex open. The NQ made a high at 9144.75 at 11:00 PM Wednesday night, made a 3:00 low on yesterday’s cash close at 8856.50 and traded 8847 on Thursday night’s 5:00 Globex open and dropped down to a low at 8805. That’s a 339.75 point drop.
Our view, one of the hardest trades is calling the S&P lower after a pullback. Making things even more difficult, it’s Friday and it’s the first trading day of May. If the ES gaps 30+ higher I want to sell the open and buy an early drop. So is the bear back? I think the sell-off is coming. I just don’t know what day and time.
Market Vitals Technical Analysis
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