Market Review
Polaris Trading Group: Taylor 3 Day Cycle Commentary Author: David D Dube (PTGDavid)
***Written 7 pm Tuesday evening for Wednesday’s trading
Tuesday’s Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Price fulfilled upside Cycle Targets (3115) early GLOBEX and continued to rally during RTH fulfilling 3138 Money Box Level.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Having fulfilled Positive 3 Day Cycle Statistic Objectives, we then have Two Scenarios to consider.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 3112, targeting 3125 – 3135 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 3112 targeting 3095 – 3090 zone.
For more detailed information for both bullish and bearish projected targets, please visit: PTG 3 Day Cycle and/or reference the Cycle Spreadsheet below:
Link to access full Cycle Spreadsheet >> Cycle Day 3
Thanks for reading,
PTGDavid
Polaris Trading Group
Economic Calendar
Closing Prices
In the Tradechat Room
MiM
Nice selling candle on the 15:50 reveal yesterday that continued the selling momentum into the close. The MiM was suggesting a sell MOC but underestimated the size, hence the surprise sell.
Reminder: June is Russell 2000 reconstitution month. Here is the schedule for that:
- Friday, May 8 – “rank day” – Russell US Index membership eligibility for 2020 reconstitution determined from constituent market capitalization at market close.
- Friday, May 22 – “query period” begins – preliminary shares & free-float information for Russell 3000 Index constituents are published daily & queries welcomes (query period runs through June 12)
- June 5 – preliminary US index add & delete lists posted to the FTSE Russell website after 6 PM US eastern time.
- June 12 & 19 – US index add & delete lists (reflecting any updates) posted to the FTSE Russell website after 6 PM US eastern time.
- June 15 – “lockdown” period begins – US index adds & delete lists are considered final
- June 26 – Russell Reconstitution is final after the close of the US equity markets.
- June 29 – equity markets open with the newly reconstituted Russell US Indexes.
Questions? Please email me: Marlin@mrtopstep.com
Get the skinny when we get it: Join the MiM.
Chart of the Day
Top Stories on MTS Overnight:
- Apple (AAPL) Ditches Intel Chips, Updates WatchOS, iPadOS
- Oil market right to be nervous of second wave: Fuel…
- ‘It’s not healthy to have people buying…
- BeyondSpring (BYSI) Catches Eye: Stock Jumps 10.9%
- Wednesday: Mortgage Purchase Applications,…
- Editorial: Public input during special session yet…
- Save Fintech? Ban Short Selling. It’s Not That Simple
- Election year pattern points to a September-October pullback
- They Huff And They Puff, But They Can’t Keep…
- Cropcast Headlines: Rain in the Delta Gives Corn a Boost
- New Strong Sell Stocks for June 23rd
- Ethos Gains 100% Due to Bithumb Abnormality, Records…
- June 23 COVID-19 Test Results, Highest Percent…
Globex
| (ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session | (ESH20:CME) Day Session |
| High 3145.75 | Opening Print: 3134.25 |
| Low: 3060.00 | High 3145.00 |
| Volume: 480K | Low: 3115.50 Late |
| ES Settlement 3117.50, up 6.75 handles | |
| Total Volume 1.5 Million |
Tuesdays S&P 500 (ESU20:CME) Trade
The S&P futures opened at 3124.25 on Tuesday’s 8:30 CT futures open, traded down to a 3128.25 ‘double bottom’ at 8:35 and then rallied 10.25 handles up to 3138.00 at 8:43. After the rally, the ES pulled back down to 3122.25 after the COVID19 headlines at 9:07. After the low, the ES rallied all the way up to 3141.25 at 10:30 and then sold off down to 3130.75 at 10:53. The ES back and filled for the next two hours then rallied up to 3145.00 at 12:51. After the high, the ES pulled back down to 3138.75, made a lower high at 3144.25 and then sold off down to 3134.50 at 1:15. After the drop, the ES traded 3123.00 at 2:36, traded 3125 as the 2:50 cash imbalance showed $3 billion to sell. On the 3:00 cash close, the ES traded 3122.00 and settled at 3117.50 on the 3:15 CT futures close, up 6.75 handles or +0.25 % on the day.
In terms of the ES’s overall tone, there was a small early scare when the headlines hit showing large jumps in COVID cases and then traded up to new highs, I would call that bullish. In terms of the day’s overall trade, volume was higher but still low at 1 million.
DATA/HEADLINES: 9:00ET IMF World Economic Outlook, FHFA home price index; 12:30ET Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks; 3:00ET St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks
The IMF will release new 2020 growth projections this morning. The IMF’s last forecasts in April predicted world GDP would fall 3% in 2020. US Senate Judiciary Committee said to consider holding China accountable for losses related to COVID-19. The U.S. is weighing new tariffs on $3.1 billion of exports from France, Germany, Spain and the UK. The U.S. Trade Representative wants to impose new tariffs on European exports like olives, beer, gin and trucks, while increasing duties on products including aircrafts, cheese and yogurt, according to a notice published late Tuesday.
TODAY’S HIGHLIGHTS: Increasing trade tensions and the persistence of the coronavirus outbreak in the U.S. are weighing on investor optimism this morning. U.S. stock index futures dropped as investors shunned risky bets with many U.S. states scrambling to fight a spike in coronavirus infections. Relations between the U.S. and Europe may become more strained over the summer as the Trump administration weighs new tariffs on the EU. Coronavirus cases are surging in Texas, Florida, Arizona and in California with city and state officials in hot spots starting to consider slowing or reversing reopening plans. The United States had a 25% increase in new cases of COVID-19 in the week ended June 21 compared with the previous week.
Our View
AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, N New All-Time New Highs
The party in the tech space has been going 24-7 since the March COVID19 lows. While most of the big tech stock gains have come from FAANG, Microsoft clearly should be added to the list along with NVIDIA, AMD, TSLA and others that are either on or near new all-time highs. How does any of this make sense? Well in some ways it’s a flight to quality, while many broader market names continue to fall behind, the buy tech sector trend is going to continue into the future and beyond.
Our view, the ES acted tired yesterday and the surge in COVID19 cases is clearly weighing down on the markets this morning with the ES down 18. I personally can not sell a lower open but maybe today. At 9:32 CT (10:32 ET) Florida will release its number of new COVID19 cases (https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429) Palm Beach County is now requiring people to wear masks. Some governors are threatening to pull liquor licenses and have already pulled some in Florida. I think there is reason to be concerned, the DAX is down over 2%. Our lean is to be cautious. If the ES breaks 3070 on the downside it could be a quick trip down to 3020. There is a lot of ‘dumb money’ floating around in overvalued stocks and a washout could be at hand. My guess is we pop after the open then I am going to look for a good stop to get short and try and hold into the Florida COVID numbers. After that, it will depend on the price action.
Danny Riley is a 39-year veteran of the CME trading floor. He has helped run one of the largest S&P desks on the floor of the CME Group since 1985.
Market Vitals Technical Analysis
Did you know that your premium membership gives you access to our Market Vitals? Click on the image below and get today’s key levels.
As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Decisions to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
No responses yet