Market Review
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PREVIOUS DAY — THURSDAY JANUARY 30, 2020
On January 30 price opened at 3250, 21 2/8 handles down from settle.
Thursday was an S2H day that was later flipped to S2L due to the overwhelming bullish buying pressure that was executed upon the market at 10:50 a.m., 12:50 p.m., and then later at 2:50 p.m. as the World Health Organization made their official statement.
Notice the timing of the buying waves? Those in the know were able to take back all the losses from the previous day. And then some…
For more detail please review the Market Recap Video: https://my.demio.com/recording/yfKgTDPv
LOOKING FORWARD — FRIDAY JANUARY 31, 2020
Great moves are usually followed by good moves. Expect more of the same. Trump’s impeachment is losing traction. The market is gaining traction. So, so great for the opposing party. Unless…they find another shoe to drop! (Jan-7)
Overnight peons have gotten it up to 3290 and then some…
Currently, I’m looking at a 3283 handle. History has demonstrated that when the WHO (World Health Organization) has made an official statement – the bottom is usually in the market?
Trump is close to resolving his dilemma. That is if things flow his way. Nancy may have one more shoe left in her closet. Time will tell. Due to Thursday’s price action, there is a strong tendency for price to resolve up to bullish buying pressure.
WB would say, “They may want a little gravy with their biscuit”, meaning it may gap and then go!
As you can see this is issue number 599. I’ve written 599 issues and have given our faithful subscribers over 3,933 points to date with 553 trades since August 8, 2018. Just this week our subscribers have been very lucky with the levels given: 24 points Monday, 30 points Tuesday, 32 points Wednesday, and 22 points Thursday. Total for the week 108 points, that would be $5,400 on 1 lot and $16,200 on 3 lots.
I’ll be the first to say, it does NOT happen every week. When it does it’s a beautiful thing!
I would love for you to join us. Click the link below to learn more.
Closing Prices
In the Tradechat Rooms
The MiM
Thursday had a different feel as the afternoon became incredibly bullish. Look at that capper on the HFT Alert below at 2:48 pm ET. That coincided with the WHO announcement and off the market went.
No big selling MiM numbers showed up to slow the enthusiasm and the reveal, which under normal circumstances was decent (-762M), it couldn’t hold back what became unsteady to the upside.
HFT Alert
Piggybacking onto the MIM data above we have to say, what a day. Over 130 program trades detected with 69 buys and 68 sells. That capper at 2:48 pm was the catalyst to move the market higher. When did you think the WHO determining that we are now in a global fight against CV would be taken positive? It happens when too many bets are made on it being negative and the shorts get smoked. There was some glimmer of good news in the message, there was a recommendation of no travel bands. The airline industry let out a united sigh and the markets never looked back.
Economic Calendar
Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays for December. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.3% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%.
• At 9:45 AM, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for January. The consensus is for a reading of 48.5, up from 48.2 in December.
• At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan’s Consumer sentiment index (Final for January). The consensus is for a reading of 99.1.
Chart of the Day
Top Stories on MTS Overnight:
- San Francisco Poop Patrol Boss Arrested On Felony…
- Stocks Go Nowhere After Two Days of Big Moves
- The ECM Turning Point: Marty Armstrong
- Mexico sends rare cargoes of medium sour crude…
- Tesla Shares Jump Nearly 12% In After-Hours Session…
- Brain injuries in Iraq put attention on invisible war wounds
- Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: House Price Gains…
Globex
| GLOBEX Session | Day Session |
| High: 3277.50 | Opening Print: 3249.25 |
| Low: 3239.75 | High: 3292.00 (Late) |
| Volume: 551,000 | Low: 3241.00 (Mid-morning) |
| ES Settlement: 3290.50, up 19.75 handles or +0.60% | |
| Total Volume: 12.37M |
S&P 500 Futures RIP: (WHO) DECLARES THAT CORONAVIRUS CONSTITUTES A PUBLIC HEALTH EMERGENCY OF INTERNATIONAL CONCERN
I am sorry but I just could not keep up with writing a full recap. Between my personal trading and all the big dips and rip and all the headlines, it was just too much to keep up with. What I can say is the ES traded 3249.25 on the 8:30 CT futures open, made an early low at 3241, had several failed rallies but made several higher lows which I think set up the big late-day rally. At 1:30 CT, after the ‘negative’ WHO headlines, the ES ripped higher and then got hit by a big sell program after a headline hit that said the multiple rocket alerts were triggered in the Gaza/Israel border region. That low resulted in a 35+ handle rally going into the final 45 minutes of the session.
At 2:00 CT the ES traded 3264.50 as the MiM showed $667 million to sell, traded 3257.00 at 2:30 as the MiM increased to $872 million to sell and traded 3276.50 as the final 2:50 cash imbalance showed $762 million to sell. On the 3:00 cash close, the ES printed 3289.00 and settled at 3289.75 on the 3:15 futures close, up 17.5 handles or +0.53% on the day.
In terms of the ES’s overall tone, all I can say is despite the negative headlines the shorts were caught with their pants down. Once the ES started to rally after 2:15 it was like the programs just took over and started to run every upside buy stop it could grab. It was one buy program after another. In terms of the day’s overall trade, volume was brisk with 2.7 million futures traded with 550,00 coming from Globex making a total volume of 2.15 million contracts traded during the day session.
I know I am not the best trader but please look at some of my posts from the MrTopStep forum yesterday. Some of the early ones were not recorded because I accidentally hit a tab that blocked some of my posts. Above 3310 it could be a clear shot to 3335. We shall see.
- IMPRO: Dboy :(12:51:25 PM) : paid 46.75 on 2
- IMPRO: Dboy :(12:51:44 PM) : I think we pop now
- IMPRO: Dboy :(11:06:28 AM) : I was bidding 39.00
- IMPRO: Dboy :(11:06:46 AM) : bids out
- IMPRO: Dboy :(11:07:10 AM) : got the feeling everyone a little too bearish
- IMPRO: Dboy :(12:35:24 PM) : buys showing up again
- IMPRO: Dboy :(12:35:50 PM) : when I read the buy imbalance I always look at the NQ first
- IMPRO: Dboy :(12:36:39 PM) : if I see 2 or 3 it usually means a bounce is coming
- IMPRO: Dboy :(12:51:25 PM) : paid 46.75 on 2
- IMPRO: Dboy :(12:51:44 PM) : I think we pop now
- IMPRO: Dboy :(12:52:08 PM) : 5 buy imbalance 1.8k es bough
- IMPRO: Dboy :(1:33:59 PM) : well I had it right about a long down there but fed up and got out to fast
- IMPRO: Dboy :(1:34:14 PM) : I saw the buy imbalances
- IMPRO: Dboy :(1:45:43 PM) : tick showing buy programs
- IMPRO: Dboy :(1:46:14 PM) : es back and fill
- IMPRO: Dboy :(1:59:15 PM) : nazzy won’t break
- IMPRO: Dboy :(2:12:54 PM) : sell programs to buy programs
- IMPRO: Dboy :(2:17:34 PM) : everyone trying to short and putting in buy stops
- IMPRO: Dboy :(2:59:37 PM) : gonna rip that shorts faces off
- IMPRO: Dboy :(3:26:16 PM) : I said they were going to wipe out the shorts
- IMPRO: Dboy :(3:38:35 PM) : it look like they keep buying the at 68-69
- IMPRO: Dboy :(3:42:57 PM) : probably going to 80.00
- IMPRO: Dboy :(3:54:01 PM) : they killed the shorts
- IMPRO: Dboy :(3:54:12 PM) : total murder job
- IMPRO: Dboy :(3:54:32 PM) : 40 handle rip from the low
- IMPRO: Dboy :(4:02:33 PM) : i saw this train coming
I know not all of this fits everyone’s trading style but beyond your charts and technical analysis, I thoroughly believe that it’s important to follow your instincts/gut feel. I came in short from 3289 and I covered at 3249.00 on Globex. When I saw all the Globex volume and the big gap down I knew that the people were short and the high-frequency trading programs know when all the selling is used up. Lastly, the ‘’premium’ Opening Print is where I lay out my gut feel for the markets. The cost is only $19.00 and I am going to lay out why the stock market rallied so much late in the day yesterday. No one else has written about this.
Our View
Why Did The ES Rally So Much In the Final Hour? I’ll Tell You Why
Sometimes we think there is no reason for the S&P to go up sharply in the final hour of the day but I had a theory several years ago that there are two parts to the day. The first part is what happens after the 8:30 futures open and the second part is what happens after 2:00 CT when the ETF buys adjust the MOC orders. Yesterday had nothing to do with the ETFs but let me give you the four reasons why the futures rallied so much on the close.
- Everyone short waiting on the WHO headlines
- The end of the month
- AMZN earning
- Trump’s Acquittal Today
If you didn’t know already, everything is a front run and yesterday was one of the largest ones I have ever seen. Provided Trump gets acquitted today and that the ‘month-end’ ETF buyers are around, the ES goes higher. As I said; before the ES trades 3150 and has to close under 3250 and close under 3230 to bet down to 3200.00 to 3180. Our lean is buying the dips. The algos do not give a rat’s ass about the China virus and as long as the Fed is printing money the ES is going up.
Earnings
Friday, Jan. 31
$CAT Caterpillar | BMO
$CVX Chevron | BMO
$XOM Exxon Mobil | BMO
$PSX Phillips 66 | BMO
Market Vitals Technical Analysis
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As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Decisions to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
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