Market Review
Our thoughts and prayers go out to anyone who may be affected/infected by the devastating virus that is spreading. Last check, 28,018 infected with at least 563 deaths. That’s up 350 than last Friday.
PREVIOUS DAY — THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 6, 2020
On February 6 price opened at 3344.75 6/8, 45 2/8 handles up from settle.
They say the market is a discounting mechanism. That should be the understatement of the year!
At 563 deaths the overnight Globex and Ansion market just keep rocking in the free world…Is there another shoe to drop? Did some insiders in the know start taking profits?
Overnight price took out the second previous week’s high and went on to find higher highs at 3357. It was an S1H day (as you can see above in the first black column) and we look to see how price trades in the last hour compared to the first hour.
For a strong bullish move, the price would need to take out the highs in the first hour of trade. Well, it could not even take out its opening print… We held in the previous range of Globex overnight from Thursday.
Some traders are on the sidelines and some traders are front and center. We don’t take sides, we just take levels. And just two levels were hit to net out 6 handles (see the center in the graphic above).
For more detail please review the Market Recap Video
LOOKING FORWARD — FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 7, 2020
Great moves are usually followed by good moves. Expect more of the same. Trump’s impeachment is losing traction. The market is gaining traction. So, so great for the opposing party. Unless…they find another shoe to drop! (Jan-7)
As you can see this is issue number 604. I’ve written 604 issues and have given our faithful subscribers over 3,933 points to date with 553 trades since August 8, 2018. Just this week our subscribers have been very lucky with the levels given: 17 points Monday, 7 points Tuesday, 25 points Wednesday, and 6 points Thursday. Total for the week 55 points, that would be $2,750 on 1 lot and $8,250 on 3 lots.
I’ll be the first to say, it does NOT happen every week. When it does it’s a beautiful thing!
I would love for you to join us. Click the link below to learn more.
Economic Calendar
Closing Prices
In the Tradechat Rooms
The MiM
The trend of a selling closing MiM in February continues. Yesterday we had 641M, but the market moved sideways into the close in a choppy 5 point range. The 3:50 PM bar showed little reaction to a small MiM.
HFT Alert
The subdued market showed on the HFTAlert app also, triggering only 8 program detections – 3 buys and 5 sells.
Chart of the Day
Top Stories on MTS Overnight:
- The CEO of Credit Suisse resigned after a…
- And Now the Dow Makes History as Rally Hits Four Days
- Trump’s acquittal confronts Dems with election year choices
- Friday: Employment Report
- February 6 Grains Commentary: Scott Shellady
- Friday: Employment Report
- Why January is still the most important month
Globex
| (ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session | (ESH20:CME) Day Session |
| High 3357.75 | Opening Print: 3344.00 |
| Low: 3332.50 | High 3357.75 |
| Volume: 265K | Low: 3332.75 |
| ES Settlement: 3345.25 | |
| Total Volume: 1.45 M |
S&P 500 Futures: ES 3258
After rallying in the overnight session to 3357.75, up 22.25 handles or .68%, the S&P 500 futures opened the 8:30 CT regular session at 3344.00 and made an early high of 3345.50 on the open before selling down to 3332.75 to reach the low of the day in the first half-hour of the session.
From there the ES sold back down to a low at 3334.00 half an hour later and then chopped higher for much of the morning making it to just 3346.25 in the afternoon.
At 2;30 the ES traded 3340.50, traded 3341.00 on the 2:50 cash imbalance as the final cash imbalance flipped to $631 million to sell. On the 3:00 cash close the ES traded 3344.00 and then traded 3345.25 on the 3:15 futures close, up 10.25 handles or +.31% on the day, 12.5 handles off the high of the day.
In terms of the day’s overall tone, the best way to describe it was firm but choppy. In terms of the day’s trade, a total of 1.45 million futures traded which is a bit lower than what we have been seeing.
Our view:
January Jobs Report
Today the US labor department will release the January jobs report. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg anticipate an increase of 163,000 in nonfarm payrolls for the start of 2020. That would be up slightly from December’s 145,000 gain but a little below the average monthly increase of 174,000 during the past year. In all honesty, I still think the ES is going up over the next few months but in the near term, my gut is saying there is a short term pullback coming.
Our lean, I think one of the hardest things about trading the ES is picking tops. That said, today jobs numbers could be pivotal. If the ES gaps higher on the open our lean would be to sell a gap up open or the first rally above. If that plays out and the ES continues lower we could be looking at the beginning of the pullback I mentioned above. The most recent pattern is to sell the gap ups and buy the pullback. Let’s see how this plays out.
Market Vitals Technical Analysis
Did you know that your premium membership gives you access to our Market Vitals? Click on the image below and get today’s key levels.
As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Decisions to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
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