Market Review
Globex
| (ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session | (ESH20:CME) Day Session |
| High 2845.50 | Opening Print: 2773.00 |
| Low: 2754.50 | High 2792.50 |
| Volume: 415,000 | Low: 2751.25 |
| ES Settlement: 2775.00 | |
| Total Volume: 1.78M |
S&P 500 Futures: Weak Banks Send The S&P Lower
The ES sold off down to 2754.50 on Globex and traded 2773.00 on Wednesday morning’s 8:30 CT futures open. After the open, the ES traded up to 2781.75 and then sold off down to 2751.75 at 9:35. After the low, the ES back and filled for the next two hours and then rallied up to 2784.50 at 12:15. The ES pulled back to the 2761 area at 1:00 then made a high at 2792.75 and then the futures started to sell off.
At 2:00 CT the ES traded 2790.00, traded 2777.25 at 2:30 and traded 2872.00 as the 2:50 cash imbalance MiM showed $900 million to sell. On the 3:00 cash close, the #ES traded 2775.00 and settled at 2774.25, down 70.25 handles or -2.74% on the day.
In terms of the day’s overall tone, the ES acted weakly. In terms of the day’s overall trade, total volume was better but still on the low side at 1.78 million contracts traded minus 415,000 from Globex making total day volume the 1.365 million contracts traded on the day session.
Economic Calendar
Closing Prices
In the Tradechat Room
MiM
One bill to sell and we moved down, traced back up, and then sold off into the 3:55 window. A subdued 14 point move. The high of the day was put in at 3 pm, we retraced and then rallied into the 3:50 pm number. That set up a nice short when the MiM displayed the sell. Those last minute moves into the 3:50 number are well worth watching.
Questions? Please email me: Marlin@mrtopstep.com
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Our View
Jobless Claims, 20 Million Out Of Work in A Month
This could be the third week in a row that jobless claims rise over 5 million. The leap in jobless claims is pushing the unemployment rate out to 15%. Twenty million people out of work in just one month. There are already 17 million people who have filed new jobless claims since a wave of state ordered lockdowns started in mid-March. The lockdowns forced most businesses to close or operate with skeleton staff. Calculations suggest the unemployment rate has jumped to a post-World War II record of almost 15%, based on the surge in jobless claims over the past month. Even then, the official figures probably understate how many people have stopped working and as Barclays said, ‘we see little likelihood of a big dropoff in new claims’.
I do my best not to look at every coronavirus update, it’s just too taxing. In the last few days, I have called it right but traded it like shit. Over the last two weeks, all the huge moves have dissipated. At least for me, it’s gotten harder to trade. A few weeks ago you could buy the ES when it fell sharply and you could sell the big rips and make 50 or 100 handles but I think the PPT filled most of the holes in the boat for now. Everyone is banking on weak first-quarter earnings and I am not really sure that even matters. I think it’s more about poor economic conditions worsening. Has the S&P gone far enough on the upside? Maybe. Do I think the ES trades down to new lows? I do but I can’t rule out a rally to 2900 or 2950 either.
Our view, we said we were looking for lower prices and selling the rallies yesterday and we also said we thought today would be down. Our lean, if the ES gaps sharply lower (30+ handles) I will buy the open or the first sell-off after the gap down and vice versa on the upside. If the ES gaps 30+ handles, I would be a seller. Generally, these trades are good for 10 or more handles but if you go with it put your limit-bid offer in right away. After that, I want to get a look at the price action and sell some rips, 2720, 2700, 2670 all support.
Danny Riley is a 39-year veteran of the CME trading floor. He has helped run one of the largest S&P desks on the floor of the CME Group since 1985.
Market Vitals Technical Analysis
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As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
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