Market Review
As you can see above are the levels I gave out yesterday to my subscribers to the AM TURN.
Don’t believe me?
Here’s the link to the [Private] YouTube video I put on my channel every day before the bell rings in New York city.
S&P 500 Emini Futures Early Read [Private]: Thursday, #April23, 2020 #Wyckoff AMTrader #2https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QF4mF-pVvBQ
As I stated, it was a strong bullish day. The Weekly unemployment numbers were 4 million and the total is now over 25 million.
Of course it was natural for the market to rally. The news was already factored in!
Yes, I had the 2832 level as the most contentious level for the selling pressure to overcome…
If you did not read it please review last Friday’s Opening Print:
That just about sums up everything that needs to be said as it relates to changes in our reality.
My concern is the 338 point plunge in two minutes in the Dow and 41 point drop in the Emini at the 12:45 marker. Was that the bigger boys trying to get out of some size? And did they sell some more on the closing print?
There are no humans trading in the pits and a strong potential that they may never be. Will markets be more efficient?
The last two days price has tried to take out the highs and failed in greatly increased volume. I’m still saying we need a pullback. Possibly a dip down to the 2600 level. If the Composite Man continues to hold a bid while selling at the tops. We could be looking at further downside down the road.
Remember, there is no cure: And Since January 21 I’ve been keeping track.
Our thoughts and prayers go out to anyone who may be affected/infected by the devastating virus that is spreading. Last check, 2,726,852 infected with at least 191,090 deaths. That’s up 1,121,536 infections and 95,338 deaths from two Fridays ago
And we started with four on January 21, 2020 (click that link above). How the powers that be let this slide under the wire for the first two months of this year is simply beyond me… and now most folks are scared to go out for fear for their lives wearing surgical masks and latex gloves. I’m waiting for the Burberry mask. I hear they are going to have booties to match?
LOOKING FORWARD — FRIDAY, April 24, 2020
We finished on the low at 16:15 at 2779 even. And as I write this Globex put in a low of 2755 and is currently rallying from that low. The question might be who ever potentially sold around lunch and on the close yesterday…do they have more inventory to sell?
That was the largest volume spike during the lunch slog. That does not happen every day. As traders were are only concerned with the tape. The tape tells us all we need to know. Often we find ourself in the midst of a mob crowd. People are often irrational and wrong in mobs. The wealthy often rarely are wrong…
If buying pressure is unable to take out the highs of the past two days, say 2833 to 2836, then we might have the potential of liquidation of a huge amount of money and give the market time to recover as late to the party young bulls challenge the highs again, so that old daddy bull can then liquidate again.
The pernicious drop this week was driven by oil. I’m sure you know the story. By my eye, I’m seeing selling by the Composite Man, The “Those in the Know” rich folks who seem to know exactly how everything is going to play out and end in the end….
As you can see this is issue number 656. I’ve written 656 issues and have given our faithful subscribers over 4,344 points to date with 628 trades since August 8, 2018. Just this week our subscribers have been very lucky with the levels given: 4 points Monday, 115 Tuesday, 18 points Wednesday, 37 points Thursday. Total for the week 174 points, that would be $8,700 on 1 lot and $26,100 on 3 lots. That is if your brokerage firm allowed you to take every trade.
I’ll be the first to say, it does NOT happen every week. When it does it’s a beautiful thing! I would love for you to join us.
Click the link below to learn more.
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MiM
Notice: MiM data early indications are coming back sometime soon in a modified form. I will keep the community updated.
Our MiM yesterday was right down the middle. The 3:50 pm ET reaction was to a top-line number of 371M to buy, but, but, but… you need to see the whole picture and the top line does not tell you the depth or makeup of that imbalance. With 1.7B on the buy-side and 1.3B on the sell-side, that difference that gives us the top-line net imbalance is really noise. This is where the % numbers come into play. Only 56% of the dollar value and 51% of the symbols were aligned with the buy-side. That is not a coordinated sentiment but rather non-committal to the market and represents a reshuffling of stocks. A realignment MOC is a good time to look deeper into the MiM data and track what is being bought and what is being sold. Below is our live sector table showing finance as a sell and consumer discretionary as a buy. We also have top symbol buys and sells.
Questions? Please email me: Marlin@mrtopstep.com
Get the skinny when we get it. Join the MiM.
Chart of the Day
Top Stories on MTS Overnight:
- Singapore’s richest man is getting $1 billion…
- Dow Stays Positive After Drug Disappointment
- Friday: Durable Goods, Consumer Sentiment
- A bottomless pit for corn prices
- April 23 Grains Commentary: Scott Shellady
- Investar (ISTR) Lags Q1 Earnings and Revenue Estimates
- House Passes $484B Coronavirus Relief Package For…
- Friday: Durable Goods, Consumer Sentiment
- Somber Congress delivers nearly $500B more in virus aid
- Six Coronavirus Vaccines Under Clinical Trials, WHO Says
Globex
| (ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session | (ESH20:CME) Day Session |
| High 2807.50 | Opening Print: 2802.00 |
| Low: 2772.75 | High 2836.75 |
| Volume: 305,000 | Low: 2779.00 |
| ES Settlement: 2781.50 | |
| Total Volume: 1.63M |
S&P 500 Futures: Gilead Covid19 Drug Faces Setback
The S&P had already shaken off the early selling and was on the upswing when a headline hit saying that California-based Gilead Science’s coronavirus antiviral drug did not improve patients’ conditions or reduce the pathogen’s presence in the bloodstream. The S&P and Nasdaq got ‘angry’ after that.
The ES traded 2802.00 on yesterday’s 8:30 CT futures open. The ES rallied up to 2821.00 at 8:41, sold off down to 2807.00 at 9:03 and then rallied all the way up to 2819 at 11:30. At 11:40 the Gilead headline hit and pushed the ES down to 2785.00 by 1:10. After the sell-off, the ES rallied back up to 2813.00 at 1:56.
At 2:00 CT the ES traded 2809.50, traded 2793.00 at 2:30 and traded 2798.75 as the 2:50 cash imbalance went from 350 million to sell to $400million to buy. On the 3:00 cash close the #ES traded 2787.75 and settled at 2781.50, down 7.75 handles or -0.3% on the day.
In terms of the ES’s overall tone, I think the best way to describe it was the S&P has rallied a long way and got weak after the headlines. In terms of the day’s overall trade, total volume was 1.63 million contracts traded minus 305Kfrom Globex making total day volume just under 1.325 million contracts traded.
Our View
The CoronaVirus “Dead Cat’ Bounce, How Long And How Far
The stock market has surged since the coronavirus pandemic effectively brought the country to its knees. The Dow and S&P 500 have rallied sharply since late March but are still down more than 13% for the year. The Nasdaq Composite is down 5.3% in 2020 as big technology stocks have led the markets higher. Let’s face it, while some states are opening up places like Illinois are reposting their highest daily case count, 2,000 people infected, and the lockdown is extended to the end of May. I understand that we need to get the economy opened up but not at the expense of healthy people that have followed the rules. People that don’t know they have it are out spreading the virus. How long will it take for the second wave to hit? It may be only 2 or 3 weeks before the hospitals start reporting new cases and that’s when the stock market is going to go sailing down. That will be when reality meets myth.
Our view, in the meantime the S&P is still seeing some big ranges but over the last 4 days, the ES has been trading in a 20 to 30 handle range until it busts out late in the day. Our lean, I think today will be down. I know the price action is not bad but if the NQ is weak I think we sell lower prices early, rally then sell-off in the afternoon. If the ES closes weak and is down Sunday night I expect Monday and Tuesday will be down. We shall see…
Danny Riley is a 39-year veteran of the CME trading floor. He has helped run one of the largest S&P desks on the floor of the CME Group since 1985.
Market Vitals Technical Analysis
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As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
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