Market Review
Globex
| (ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session | (ESH20:CME) Day Session |
| High 3152.00 | Opening Print: 3145.00 |
| Low: 3125.50 | High 3162.25 |
| Volume: 300K | Low: 3126.00 |
| ES Settlement 3163.50 | |
| Total Volume 1.5 Million |
I am not going to BS any of you, I was just too damn tired to do a full OP today. The bottom line in 3 lines or less is that the ES gapped higher, sold off a few handles after the open and then started taking off to the upside. Around 9:30 when the COVID-19 numbers were released the ES sold off 20 handles, rallied again and sold off again late and then totally ripped the faces off the shorts and rallied over 25 handles in the final 45 minutes of the day. In terms of the ES’s overall tone, it was totally manhandled by the NQ that was on a mission to the upside for most of the day. In terms of the day’s overall trade a total of 1.49 million ES futures traded.
Economic Calendar
Closing Prices
In the Tradechat Room
MiM
A buy going into the close despite a sell warning from the MiM. The MOC reveal at 15:50 was about 600M to sell where the buy-side pairing was much quicker than the sell-side and the market got a 6-point rise after an initial sell-side reaction.
Questions? Please email me: Marlin@mrtopstep.com
Get the skinny when we get it: Join the MiM.
Covid-19
We continue to track Covid-19 across all 50 states, DC, and Puerto Rico to gain a better understanding of what is happening. While detected cases continue to expand, we are not seeing the equivalent expansion in hospitalizations and deaths. Our table uses 7-day averages and takes a 5-day linear regression slope in order to detect changes as quick as possible. We score each state by a normalized slope and ranking in each category (infected, admitted, and deaths).
Everything is not OK in OK as they move into first place on the leaderboard. With exponential growth in new cases and new admissions following about 10 days behind. This is a reminder that it is not just swing-states that are seeing a resurgence.
Florida is on the front-line approaching 10K cases a day on the 7-day average and admissions and death lagging about 10 to 15 days. Admissions have hit a new high for the sunshine state but deaths will most likely need another 10 days.
While the overall death rate is down as the disease has moved to the young the increase in cases will surely find vulnerable young and pockets of older populations. The end is not near.
To use our table go to https://t2r4.com/cv19/views. Each column is sortable and if you click on a cell you will get a time-based chart of the stat.
Wear your mask!
Chart of the Day
Top Stories on MTS Overnight:
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims
- Talking Grammer, Ep. 31: La Cueva/UCLA graduate Bryce Alford
- Why Should You Invest in the CoreLogic (CLGX) Stock Now?
- Chloroquine (a malaria drug) maybe: An Effective…
- Barchart Chart of the Day: Marvell Technolgy($MRVL)
- July 8 COVID-19 Test Results, Record Positive,…
- Yield curve spreads – a little-known way to trade profitably
- Should Value Investors Buy Strattec Security (STRT) Stock?
- The Surprising Reality of Option Trading in Morgan…
- MTS Video – Weekly Grains Update with Gary Sandlund
- When robots take over trading
- Visa Makes Payment Easy in Asia Pacific With Click to Pay
- EUR Tumbles Post-ECB; Does New QE Program Live Up to Hype?
Our View
Rally, Dip, Rip
You know what? This whole thing is a shit show. Central banks printing money at a record pace, countries racking up debt, economies unable to open back up, record unemployment, COVID-19 spreading all over the US and the world and earnings coming out next week. How can any of this be good? Well, it all comes down to two very unforgetful words, LIQUIDITY and the TREND. As I have said many times the markets are evolving and we live in an ever-changing world with an extremely high level of uncertainty.
Our view, well today is the PitBull’s ‘Thursday / Friday low the week before the July expiration, let’s see how that pans out. As for ‘my view’ I think the odds favor a shot at 3200 to 3210 by Friday, if not higher. Our lean is we can’t rule out selling a big gap up, buying the midmorning pullback and getting long for a trade but… ideally, I think buying the pullbacks / not fighting the fed is the easier trade and try to pull back from the screens around 11:00 and come back in around 3:00 for the late day MIM play.
Danny Riley is a 39-year veteran of the CME trading floor. He has helped run one of the largest S&P desks on the floor of the CME Group since 1985.
Market Vitals Technical Analysis
Did you know that your premium membership gives you access to our Market Vitals? Click on the image below and get today’s key levels.
As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Decisions to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
No responses yet