Market Review
Polaris Trading Group: Taylor 3 Day Cycle Commentary Author: David D Dube (PTGDavid)
Tuesday’s Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price rallied fulfilling 3 Day Cycle Objectives and extended to Penetration Levels before reversing direction late in the day closing near session low.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Having closed low within the range, momentum may take price lower to probe for a “secure-low” before the next rally can begin. Previous two sessions have seen strong buying which may not dissipate so easily. Our Line-in-the-Sand has been 2850 recently, so we’ll keep it there for today’s session. IF price violates and converts to lower resistance, THEN lower target / buy zone is measured between 2830 – 2825. CD1 Average Decline measures 2766.25.
For more detailed information for both bullish and bearish projected targets, please visit: PTG 3 Day Cycle and/or reference the Cycle Spreadsheet below:
Link to access full Cycle Spreadsheet >> Cycle Day 1
Economic Calendar
Closing Prices
In the Tradechat Room
MiM
Some early indications will be starting today. Yeah! Yesterday the Fed Vice Chair threw some cold water on the markets reminding us that we are in a recession with deflationary pressures and that dropped the market going into the MOC which was a decent buy on the top line. Still we have no alignment on the symbol hence any top line rejuvenation sold off and we closed flat from the start of the 3:50 candle. Watch the #% number it is important.
Questions? Please email me: Marlin@mrtopstep.com
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Chart of the Day
Top Stories on MTS Overnight:
- Wednesday: ADP Employment
- NASDAQ Adds Another 1% as Stocks Finish Positive Again
- Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: Daily Roundup May 5, 2020
- ACCOUNTS PAYABLE AUTOMATION: T
Globex
| (ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session | (ESH20:CME) Day Session |
| High 2889.25 | Opening Print: 2863.25 |
| Low: 2823.25 | High 2890.00 @3:00 |
| Volume: 310,000 | Low: 2832.50 |
| ES Settlement: 2866.75 | |
| Total Volume: 1.43 M |
S&P 500 Futures: Fed’s Clarida; Unemployment Going To Surge To Levels Not Seen Since 1940
After selling off hard last Friday and following through on Sunday night and Monday the S&P came roaring back up yesterday. The ES traded 2863.25 on yesterday’s 8:30 CT futures’ open, traded down to 2859.00 just after the open and then rallied up to 2881.75 at 9:00 CT. After the low, the ES pulled back down to the 2870.25 level at 9:50 and by 11:15 traded up to a new high at 2889.75. After the high, the ES pulled back down to the 2877 area at 12:13, rallied back up to 2888.75 and then pulled back to the 2881.50 level.
At 2:00 the ES traded 2888.25, traded 2869.00 at 2:30 and traded 2884.00 as the 2:50 cash imbalance showed $1 billion to buy. On the 3:00 cash close, the #ES traded 2858.25 and settled at 2866.75, up 30.75 handles or +1.09% on the day. In terms of the ES’s tone, the ES was firm all day until the late headlines. In terms of the day’s overall trade, there were a total of 1.43 million ES traded with 310,000 coming from Globex making total day volume only 1.12 million contracts traded on the day session.
Our View
Coronavirus Mutation
As the US begins to open up its economy there are two questions: 1) have the cases in the US peaked and 2) will there be another wave of illness this summer or in the fall? Late yesterday there was a headline that said a new, harsher strain of the virus may hit the US this fall. My guess is that ‘slap happy’ people go running out when the lockdowns are lifted and completely blow off social distancing. A friend from Chicago told me he doesn’t wear a mask, not even when he goes to the grocery store. This is the type of stuff that will only make things worse.
Our view, it seems like we are in some type of trading range, like 2720 to 2960 and it may be like that for some time. Our lean, sell the early rallies and buy the midmorning pull back and look for a late dip and rip.
Danny Riley is a 39-year veteran of the CME trading floor. He has helped run one of the largest S&P desks on the floor of the CME Group since 1985.
Market Vitals Technical Analysis
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