Market Review
Polaris Trading Group: Taylor 3 Day Cycle Commentary Author: David D Dube (PTGDavid)
Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…We wrote in prior Daily Trade Strategy Briefing: “Typical CD2 “normal” would be for market to seek some stabilization and balance. Key to watch is for CD1 Low (2350) to continue to hold on any retest. Failure would open the door for further declines, while conversion above 2445 opens the door to a “Turn-Around Tuesday” Rally.”
Price did in fact successfully test the prior CD1 Low (2350), at which time the rally did unfold but stalled at 2545, at expected initial resistance, within the 3 Day Central Pivot Zone. All-in-all textbook Cycle Day 2.
This leads us into today’s Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…We are going to mark today as a “wild card” day, since price is building a 2-Day Balance Zone within VAH > 2520…VAL > 2430…POC > 2485. IF price violates and converts 2380, THEN further downside measures 2350 – 2330 zone. IF price can recover above 2445, THEN upside targets 2500 – 2520 zone. With VIX 75, we expect that “Everything Can Happen, So Nothing is Surprising” Honor Thy Stops!
Link to access full Cycle Spreadsheet >> Cycle Day 2
Economic Calendar
Closing Prices
Closing prices for Tuesday, March 17
In the Tradechat Room
MiM
It is time for the markets to fight back. We need to see some glimmer on the CV19 front. China is one data point, the problem with that is that it is made in China. South Korea really has flattened the curve and so has Singapore. Right now everyone has been ordered out of the pool as they do a cleaning. Once the life guards blow that whistle for the all clear we will see some giant closing MiMs. Yesterday’s reveal at 3:50pm ET was 1.2B to sell, that created a Doji on the 3:50 candle which resolved into the close as up a nice 40ish point move.
Get the skinny when we get it. Join the MiM.
HFTAlert
The programs came back yesterday but we only had low grade and moderate programs, no massive highs or cappers. We had a moderate 61 programs with 33 buys and 28 sells.
Chart of the Day
Top Stories on MTS Overnight:
- Elon Musk says maybe: An Effective Treatment for…
- Senate Democrats to unveil proposal to send each…
- Federal Reserve Board announces establishment of a…
- Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: FDA Issues Temporary…
- Market Roars Back on Trillion-Dollar Stimulus Plan
- Wednesday: Housing Starts
- Federal Reserve Board announces establishment of a…
- Futures Circuit Breakers / Limits for today
- 3 more Biden victories increase pressure on Sanders to quit
- Wednesday: Housing Starts
Globex
| (ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session | (ESH20:CME) Day Session |
| High 2498.00 | Opening Print: 2430.75 |
| Low: 2379.75 | High 2542.75 |
| Volume: 650,000 | Low: 2352.00 |
| ES Settlement: 2352.00 | |
| Total Volume: 3.7 M |
S&P 500 Futures: White House $1T Stimulus Rumor Plan; Fails To Inspire
I have to be honest. With all the crap going on around the house and world I just can’t do all the ups and downs. I moved my trading PC out of the office on Sunday and just could not muster up the will to take down the current pc and hook up the better system. I will try my best to get that done ASAP.
The ES traded down to 2379.75 and made a high of 2498.00 on Globex and traded 23430.75 on the 8:30 CT futures open. The ES made an early low of 2352 and made the daily high at 2542.25 around 11:15 PM CT. After the high, the ES sold back off down to the 2438 area at about an hour later. The ES then traded up to a higher low at the 2530.50 area and then pulled back down to the 2457 area.
At 2:00 the ES traded 2484.75 as the early MiM showed $1.47 billion for sale, traded 2470.25 at 2:30 as the MiM paired back to $1.5 billion for sale and traded 2507 at 2:50 as the final cash imbalance showed $2.6 billion for sale and flipped to $308 million to buy on the 3:00 cash close. The ES traded 2523.00, settled at 2483.50 on the 3:15 futures close, up 83.75 handles or +3.49% on the day.
In terms of overall tone, the ES was firm but not overly. In terms of the day’s overall trade, total volume was 3.7 million with 650,000 coming from Globex making total day volume 3.05 million contracts traded on the day session.
Our View
No News Is Good News
The ES was already selling off but sold off an additional 40 handles after New York Mayor Bill de Blasio said he may issue a ‘shelter in place’ order in the next 48 hours. According to the latest data available from John Hopkins University there are now 6,234 confirmed cases of the #coronavirus, 105 deaths and 17 recoved. Globally 196,980 cases, 80,840 recovered, 7,902 deaths and 108,238 still infected. It would be a good idea that the government acts quickly to draw up plans on construction of ventilators via reconfigured machinery out of 3D printing. Training soldiers as triage nurses and graduate nurses now. While we know of 3,000 doctors and nurses in China got infected by the virus and hundreds died this could be a small number in the US if they do come up with an active plan and execute it quickly. According to the Washington Post ‘dozens of health-care workers have fallen ill with covid-19, and more are quarantined after exposure to the virus, an expected but worrisome development as the U.S. health system girds for an anticipated surge in infections.’
Our view, I think the old saying that you can run but not hide applies. From Massachusetts to California, the virus is picking off doctors and nurses. As I have said many times I do not think we have seen the lows in the S&P and expect new lows and lower prices. That doesn’t mean the ES can’t bounce but it’s not real buying, it’s all based on the algos forcing the shorts out and running stops. I don’t like being Mr. Gloom & Doom but that is the world we live in. ES 2200, 2000, 1800 ON TAP.
Market Vitals Technical Analysis
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As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
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