Market Review
The market opened on what appeared to be strong bullish news. Overnight Globex had already found a high and the question was if / when CASH would decide to respond in kind and start lifting offers.
It did not take long for CASH to decide the direction. A quick move down in the opening balance and an early high of the day was found.
3030 handle found a bid and price responded with a move back up in search of a high of day thirty handles higher. By 2:00 the high of the day had been found.
The high could not hold and soon price was back in search of a low. As the 15:55 marker appeared price found a low of the day.
Each day we break out the day. Yesterday was no exception. Here’s the early read from yesterday
https://my.demio.com/ref/VBon5hPMzk4wAK5Z
LOOKING FORWARD — FRIDAY, MAY 29, 2020
This day ends the month of trading. Monday is the first of June. Overnight Globex has been lifting price on low volume and hearsay news and CASH have been discounting back down to value. Yesterday’s fall from grace has not recovered in the normal fashion as Globex traders have been reluctant to enter back into the fray.
Currently, the low of 3011 has been found and a high of 3065 has been seen. Bulls will need to defend the 2965 handle providing the desire is to keep the bullish party going.
We’ve had a good week, click the link below to learn more.
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MiM
Nice sell into the close during the last 30 minutes. Top to bottom was 40 points. Big momentum change. Our MiM was not so bearish, but the 15:50 MOC reveal of 3B to sell stuck the low of the day. A retrace trade from that into the close was worth a nice 12.
We had some happy last call traders in the room yesterday. Today will be basically the last day of the month, expect some more activity today.
Questions? Please email me: Marlin@mrtopstep.com
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Globex
| (ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session | (ESH20:CME) Day Session |
| High 3053.75 | Opening Print: 3041.25 |
| Low: 2929.00 | High 3065.50 |
| Volume: 485,000 | Low: 3019.50 |
| ES Settlement: 3038.00 | |
| Total Volume: 1.8M |
S&P 500 Futures: #ES 3065.50 T+1 Meets The End Of The Quarter Rebalance
The ES traded down to 2929 on Globex and opened Thursday’s 8:30 CT regular session at 3041.25 and at 8:39 traded down to 3030.00. After the low, the ES made a sequence of 11 higher lows and traded up to 3065.50 at 1:00 CT. After the high, the ES sold off down to 2051.50, rallied back up to a lower high at 2:15 CT and then the NQ started rolling over. On the 2:50 cash imbalance, the ES traded 3019.50 as the MIM flipped from $208 million to buy to sell $433 million. On the 3:15 futures close the ES settled at 3038.00, up 1 handle or +0.03% on the day.
In terms of the overall tone, the ES acted great until the 2:30 sell program but the buyers came flying back in after 3:00. In terms of the day’s overall trade, volume was HIGH, 1.8 million ES futures traded with 485,000 coming from Globex making total day volume 1.7 million futures traded on the day session.
Our View
#Trump #China #COVID19 #TradeDeal #HongKong
Weird things can happen at month-end. Will there be a rebalance, sell ES buy bonds? Or will the guys with the better seats mark stocks up early and then walk away late? I don’t know but I do know one thing! When President Trump holds his new conference on China… that’s when. Based on how things are going between Trump and China I think he could be escalating tensions. Trump already announced that after China changed the law that it was no longer autonomous from China which could potentially change how America deals with Hong Kong in terms of trade and travel. Trump has also discussed withdrawing from the January trade deal.
Our view, I didn’t get to my 3075 but we did see 3065. Rest assured of one thing; while I think the ES is going to 3100 and beyond the rally is going to continue to face roadblocks and today’s roadblock is going to come in the form of President Trump’s comments. If he starts picking a fight with China… all bets are OFF! Our lean, if the ES gaps up 15 to 20 handles on the open I’m selling them. After that, I’ll be looking for the midmorning low with my ear to the TV.
Have a great weekend everyone.
Danny Riley is a 39-year veteran of the CME trading floor. He has helped run one of the largest S&P desks on the floor of the CME Group since 1985.
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