Market Review
| (ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session | (ESH20:CME) Day Session |
| High 2499.00 | Opening Print: 2425.50 |
| Low: 2330.25 | High 2499.00 |
| Volume: 671,000 | Low: 2261.00 |
| ES Settlement: 2288.50 | |
| Total Volume: 2.92M |
S&P 500 Futures: Total US Quarantine And Domestic Flight Ban Coming?
I will not be doing all the rips and dips today. What I will say is that the S&P futures (ESM20:CME) has fallen 1,136 handles from its 3397 contract high set on February 19th in 22 sessions and is now down nearly 30% YTD. The number of confirmed novel coronavirus cases is growing rapidly, with the total known infected doubling in a week to top 316,000 as of Sunday at 11:50 AM CT. My own opinion is that millions will get infected and that the worst of the sell-off hasn’t started yet.
As for Friday’s S&P futures trade there were some bounces but as the day wore on so did the futures. At 2:00 CT the ES traded 2320.00 as the early MiM showed $1.2B for sale, traded 2331.50 at 2:30 as the MiM showed 1.3B to sell and traded 2295.50 at 2:50 as the final cash imbalance showed $3.1B to sell. On the 3:00 cash close the ES traded at 2284.25 and settled at 2288.50 on the 3:15 futures close, down 66.75 handles or -2.83% on the day and traded down to 2267.25 in the aftermarket trade.
In terms of overall tone, the #ES was extremely weak. In terms of the day’s overall trade, total volume was 2.92 million with 671,000 coming from Globex making total day volume 2.25 million contracts traded on the day session.
Economic Calendar
Closing Prices
In the Tradechat Room
MiM
Friday was OPEX. This morning is OPEX recovery as options were assigned over the weekend. Watching the opening MiM should be interesting. On Friday we showed a consistent sell over 1 Billion and at the reveal when it becomes real we grew another 2 billion to sell. After selling off what had been a decent morning we again formed another doji on the 3:50 pm bar and closed at the low of the day as investors remained cautious of weekend news.
Get the skinny when we get it. Join the MiM.
HFTAlert
A fairly busy day, but still mostly low key as the markets sold off in a fairly organized manner, no rushing for the doors. We clocked in 131 programs with 70 buys and 60 sells.
Chart of the Day
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Our View
#Coronavirus Outbreak Worse Than Anyone Expected
The total number of cases in the US is rising and going to ratchet up in the next ten days. It’s going to get very scary and the S&P will react in kind. My gut feeling is this is going to be a very difficult week for the S&P. Here is a link to today’s limits: https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/price-limits.html#equityIndex 5% is 2174.00, 7% is 2128.00, and 13% is 1989.50. I am both scared and bewildered that I am even writing these prices. Another scary thing is that at a time when both sides should be agreeing on a bailout the Democratic leaders are objecting.
Market Vitals Technical Analysis
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As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
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