I hate to repeat myself but Globex traded in another narrow trading range, 3194.40 (after the Trump impeachment news) to 3210.75 with the total pre-market volume of 192,000 contracts traded. The ES traded 3198.00 on the 8:30 CT futures open, traded up to 3201.50 a few minutes later and then pulled back down near the opening price to 3198.25 at 9:20. After the low, the ES did ‘exactly’ what I was looking for, a big stop run-up to new all-time highs at 3208.25. After the high print, the ES pulled back down to 3205.00, pulled back and then shot up to another new all-time contract high of 32010.50 at 1:33 CT. I posted this just as the ES was making its high; IMPRO: Dboy :(2:37:25 PM): kinda think we downtick a little here and the ES sold off to 3206.50.
At 2:30 the ES traded 3107.00 as the MiM was showing $1.14 billion to sell. On the 2:45 cash imbalance, the ES traded 3207.50 as the final cash imbalance showed $1.12 billion to sell and went out to $3.2 billion to sell, traded 3210.50 on the 3:00 cash close and settled at 3211.75 on the 3:15 futures close, up 12.50 handles or +0.39% on the day.
In terms of the overall tone, the ES acted very firm. In terms of the day’s overall trade, total volume was 1. million with 192,000 coming from Globex and 220,000 ESZ/ESH spreads traded.
Economic Calendar
Closing Prices
Our View
Highest Bull Sentiment Of The Year
This has been a very tough year for the bears. As of the close, the S&P 500 is up a whopping 28%. Bull Bears Index is the most optimistic since 2018. Fear and Greed are extreme GREED 90 out of 100, last year at this time it was 8 and last week it was 74. It seems almost too hard to believe. That said, the big investment firms, mutual funds, and ETFs are marking up stock like crazy. While yesterday’s rally was broad a lot of it was in the tech stocks like NFLX ( up $7.00 every day this week) CMG, INVA, AMG, MU… to name a few. It has been a buying extravaganza !!!
Our view: I think it’s entirely possible the ES rallies right into the end year. Tomorrow I will post the Stock Trader’s Almanac year-end stats. Our lean is for further stock markups and higher prices. That doesn’t mean you can’t sell a rally or two but I am sticking with buying the pullbacks, still long from 3196.00.
In the Tradechat Rooms
The MiM
Decent sell on the MiM. An analysis follows below the HFT. Take a gander.
HFT Alert
Not a busy day for big program action, it was mostly confined to the close and there is an explanation in the section below worth reading.
Anatomy of the Close
The last hour of trading. I get to talk to a lot of traders and I have heard over and over again about how at 2 pm ET or 3 pm they shut off their screens and walk away from their monitors because trading those last few hours is hazardous. And it is. There is a lot going on and a lot of it is market mechanics and order flow, which do not always obey those classical technical tools. The market is coming into a close and it is the last chance for the day to unwind or wind up large trades, the imbalances are coming in, margin calls are forcing trades. It is the wild west. Our MiM tool helps to decode some of the action and put reason to it and with the addition of the HFT Alert tool, it is helping to shed light on some of the twists and turns of that final road.
The image below is the last hour or so of yesterday. WIth our MIM displaying a big 1B to sell imbalance starting around 2:30 pm, the upward drift turned around and a decay set up. At the reveal at 3:50 pm, the MiM that had been upside surprising us at this time had a change of heart and added 2B to what we were showing just minutes before. A 3B sell imbalance. That’s a pretty good size, and what happened? Our HFT Alert fired, making more noise than a sub under attack. A capper. The biggest of the programs read the imbalance and fired off a sell program. Those cappers are good reversals, and yesterday’s was no exception.
Our drift on the increasing MiM from 3211 area down to 3206 was a 5 handle move and that was all recovered after the reveal and the capper fired. If you were wondering what was happening behind the scenes, I just gave you a little bit more explanation. Mystery solved.
If you have questions, email me marlin@mrtopstep.com
Video of the Day
Webinar on HFT Alerts
Market Vitals Technical Analysis
As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Decisions to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
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