Index Futures Net Changes and Settlements:
| Contract | Settlement | Net Change | +/-% |
| S&P 500 (ESH19:CME) | 2550.50 | +19.25 | +0.76 % |
| DowJones (YMH19:CBT) | 23,512 | +117 | +0.50 % |
| Nasdaq 100 (NQH19:CME) | 6496.50 | +62.50 | +0.97 % |
| Russell 2000 (RTYH19:CME) | 1405.90 | +24.30 | +1.75 % |
Foreign Markets, Fair Value and Volume:
- In Asia 6 out of 11 markets closed lower: Shanghai Comp -0.26%, Hang Seng +0.15%, Nikkei +0.82%
- In Europe 12 out of 13 markets are trading higher: CAC +1.37%, DAX +0.85%, FTSE +0.91%
- Fair Value: S&P +0.40, NASDAQ +13.31, Dow -22.91
- Total Volume: 1.62mil ESH & 488 SPH traded in the pit
Today’s Economic Calendar:
Today’s economic calendar includes NFIB Small Business Optimism Index 6:00 AM ET, International Trade 8:30 AM ET, Redbook 8:55 AM ET, JOLTS 10:00 AM ET, and Consumer Credit 3:00 PM ET.
S&P 500 Futures: #ES Rallies As U.S. / China Trade Talks Begin
After trading mostly higher in the overnight, but giving back gains into the U.S. open, the S&P 500 opened yesterday’s cash session at 2534.50. The benchmark futures chopped around for the first hour of the day, trading in a range from 2524.50 to 2540.00, but then broke out on 9:30 buy programs, which helped propel the ES up to a morning high of 2564.75 just before noon, with only two 6-7 handle pullbacks in the process.
The afternoon saw a new high of day early at 2567.50, and then the ES began to turn over, trading down to 2547.25, a 20.25 handle pullback going into the final hour. Heading into the close the ES rose up to 2559.50, and then rolled over after the final MOC came out showing $1 Billion to buy. The futures printed 2550.50 at 3:00, and settled the day at 2550.25, up +19.00 handles, or +0.85%.
In the end it was a quieter day in both terms of the ranges and volume. In terms of the days overall tone, it seems like the markets are interpreting positive things out of the U.S and China resuming trade talks. I said in the view yesterday that I was expecting the ES to go higher early this week.
I think I am like a lot of people, I would like to see the ES go higher after taking such a beating, but I am also wary of some wayward headline hitting the tape, and a 50 or 70 handle drop in 45 minutes following it. Would I like to see the markets stabilize? Yes, I would, but it’s the same old, same old…
Will the rallies fail? I guess if you follow the PitBulls rule that ‘the ES tends to rally early in the day and early in the week in a bear market,’ then we should remain on guard for a selloff at some point.
Daily HotSpots
HotSpots are times during the market trading session that for the past XX days have consistently moved in one direction or the other. These HotSpots are published each morning pre-market. The next day, a results post is also published and weekly a summary post.
CAUTION: This data is under development and provided only for research and teaching purposes
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Lookbacks:
The lookback period (number of days) is set at 21,13,11,8 and 5 days. A heat-map is generated for each of these lookback periods, the best trade from day is scored.
The period of time that has consistently produced the best results becomes the hotspot for that look back. There are also different look-back types like Taylor and Taylor Plus.
Taylor cycles are usually 3-day cycles. A Taylor-5 look-back would use the last 5 trading days skipping back by 3 trading days. Taylor Plus uses calendar days so weekends and none
trading days are counted as part of the skip count. If a lookback period falls on a none trading day, it is not used so a TaylorPlus will continue skipping back until 5 trading days are found for the heatmap calculation.
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