Today’s Recap:
The ES opened high on Globex and opened Monday’s regular session at 6666.75. It rallied up to 6681.25, then sold off down to 6672.50 at 11:21. It rallied up to a lower high and double top at 6679.25, sold off down to 6665.25 at 1:18, rallied up to another higher low at 6677.00 at 2:00, sold off down to 6663.25, and then traded up to 6674.75 at 3:48. It traded 6674.50 as the 3:50 imbalance showed $631 million for sale, then traded up to 6679.75 and settled at 6679.25 on the 5:00 futures close.

In the end, it played out exactly like I said it would in the Lean—a two-way street.

In terms of the ES’s overall tone, there was this crazy on-again, off-again ES vs. NQ rotation. The NQ was the leader but would rally while the ES wouldn’t move, and then there were times when the ES was bid but the NQ didn’t move.

In terms of the ES’s overall trade, outright trading volume was low due to the rollover. When you take out Globex and the ESZ/ESU spreads, total outright day session volume was higher—1.7 million contracts traded, with 1 million of that coming from the spreads. If you take out the Globex volume, total day session volume drops to the low 600s—that’s not very much, all things considered.

On Tap

Our View

There has been a lot of talk that the U.S./China tariff talks were not going to go well, but it seems like things are moving in a positive direction.

Traders have been gearing up for the last few weeks for tomorrow’s Fed rate decision, which is now 100% expected to be a 1/4 bps rate cut. The PitBull is saying there’s a good chance they cut 0.50 bps, but that’s where things went wrong last year—so I feel strongly that’s not going to happen.

I know I called for a quieter day yesterday, but we should be quieter today.

Our Lean

The ES traded up to 6696.75 on Globex and is trading 6689 last I checked.

Our lean: I still think you can sell the early rallies and buy the pullbacks. There is a risk of some type of pre-Fed selling, but as of right now, they still look higher.

ES – Z Levels

The bull/bear line for the ES is at 6672.25. This is the key pivot level that determines sentiment. Trading above this level favors the bulls, while sustained action below it points to bearish pressure.

Currently, ES is trading at 6691.00, showing strength above the bull/bear line. If buyers can maintain control, the upside targets are the upper range target at 6702.25 followed by 6730.25. A breakout through this area could extend toward 6739.75, the recent swing high.

On the downside, first support comes in at 6681.25 and then at 6679.25. A break below these would open the door to testing the bull/bear line at 6672.25. If that level fails, expect a slide toward 6645.00 and the lower range target at 6642.25. Below that, stronger support sits at 6614.00.

Overall, holding above 6672.25 keeps the bullish structure intact, with upside targets in play. A sustained move below shifts control back to the sellers.

NQ – Z – Levels

The bull/bear line for the NQ is at 24,505.25. This is the pivot level to determine sentiment for the session. Holding above this level favors buyers, while sustained trade below it shifts the tone bearish.

Currently, NQ is trading at 24,623.25, above the bull/bear line, showing short-term strength. If buyers can maintain this area, the next resistance is at the upper range target of 24,656.25, with further upside potential toward 24,798.50.

On the downside, initial support sits at 24,550.75, then the bull/bear line at 24,505.25. A break below opens the door for further declines toward the lower range target of 24,354.25, with deeper support at 24,317.75. If pressure persists, sellers could push toward 24,212.25, which marks a key lower support.

Overall, bias leans bullish while price holds above 24,505.25, with buyers aiming to extend toward 24,798.50. A rejection and failure back under the bull/bear line would shift momentum to sellers and put the lower range levels into play.

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Polaris Trading Group Summary – Monday, September 15, 2025

Overview:
The trading session began with positive momentum from the overnight session, particularly in the ES and NQ, which both achieved their initial target zones early. The day presented a few solid trade opportunities—primarily in the morning—before devolving into what PTGDavid aptly described as a “meat grinder” heading into the lunch session. Afternoon trading remained choppy, consistent with expectations during OPEX, rollover, and FOMC week.

Positive Trades Highlighted

Lessons & Insights

Market Context Reminder

Final Notes:

Key Takeaway:
Stick to the playbook, take the AM setups, manage risk in chop, and always listen to the market context. Let the setups come to you—and when they do, execute with confidence and detachment.