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Our View

Globex:

Regular Session:

The ES and NQ rallied on Globex and extended that move after the gap higher, but eventually stalled out. Over the last week or so, there’s been what I call a “mini drop” that appears out of nowhere. Without any news, the ES falls 10–12 points, and that’s exactly what happened yesterday after a few lower highs.

I know I said I would be patient, but I bought after the open. The ES rallied, but I didn’t get out, and then came the 10-point mini drop. I exited and told the chat I didn’t want to get caught long at all-time highs and that I thought we could pull back.

That said, despite seeing the weakness, I stuck to my game plan and bought at 6321.50 (early low was 6315.50). The ES rallied to the 6346 area and I exited at 6342.50. After I got out, this headline hit:

That headline hit just as the already weak ES and NQ were selling off, and they dropped to new lows. The ES and NQ did bounce late as the MiM came out showing $1.2 billion to buy, bringing the total net buy imbalance to $7.3 billion over the last three sessions.

In the end, there was something off about the late-day price action after the early highs; it lost momentum. After the bell, AMD sold off 3.5%, SNAP dropped 14%, and Trump continued to threaten India with substantially higher tariffs over the next 24 hours due to its ties with Russia. Oil prices fell, the yield on the 10-year note ended the day at 4.196% after a soft auction of three-year notes, and the dollar index closed modestly higher.

In terms of tone, both the ES and NQ traded on the weak side. In terms of trade, ES volume was higher at 1.385 million contracts.

There are no economic reports or Fed speak today, but there is a 10-year note auction and 122 companies report earnings. Disney, McDonald’s, Uber, Hopify, and Novo Nordisk report before the bell and DoorDash, Airbnb, and Lyft after the bell.

Guest Posts — Polaris Trading Group

Prior Session was Cycle Day 1: Early spillover above the previous high failed to sustain a firm bid and as such a negative ISM Report served as the catalyst for today’s reversal lower.

Cycle Day 1 Average Decline 6320 was easily fulfilled as yesterday’s buyers (shorts) left little to no buying power to stem today’s decline.

Midday rally retraced 50% of the morning decline, but again failed to sustain an adequate bid, ultimately closing in the lower quartile of the day’s range.

Range was 62 handles on 1.354M contracts exchanged

For a more detailed recap of the trading session, click on this link: Trading Room RECAP 8.5.25

FREE TRIAL link to PTG/Taylor Three Day Cycle 

…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2

Transition into Cycle Day 2: Bulls clearly slipped on the soap during the CD1 session closing near the lows of the day.

Expectation would be for selling momentum to “spill-over” into today’s session, in order to retest the 6313.25 CD1 Low.

Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.

PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.

As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading. 

Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 6325+-, initially targets 6335 – 6340 zone. 

Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 6325+-, initially targets 6315 – 6310 zone.

Thanks for reading, PTGDavid

MiM and Daily Recap

The overnight Globex session opened at 6370.00 and initially pushed higher, tagging a high of 6371.75 at 18:00 before reversing lower to 6363.00 by 18:40. After a minor lower high at 6369.25, ES dipped to an early low of 6360.25 at 20:20. A strong rally then followed, reaching a high of 6376.00 at 20:45. Price action turned choppy into the late evening with a series of shallow pullbacks and lower highs. The ES made another run to 6377.50 at 03:05, marking the overnight high. That advance was rejected, and price slid to an overnight low of 6358.50 at 04:10. A minor bounce ensued into the early morning, printing lower highs at 6368.75 and 6374.50, before failing again at 6376.75 at 08:10. The session closed at 6363.50, down 6.50 points from the prior day (-0.10%).

The regular session opened at 6363.75 and made a brief run higher to 6371.75 at 09:45, was quickly sold, and the ES dropped hard into a morning low of 6315.50 at 10:50, shedding 56.25 points (-0.88%) from the earlier high. A midday recovery took shape, rallying to 6342.00 at 12:30 and extending to a higher high of 6348.75 at 13:45. That rally faded into a steady afternoon grind lower. The ES dipped to 6323.75 at 14:50, bounced mildly to 6336.75 by 15:20, then drifted lower into the close, printing 6325.75. The regular session finished down 38.50 points (-0.60%) from the open, and off 31.75 points (-0.50%) from the prior day’s close.

Total volume was 1.35M contracts, with the bulk (1.14M) trading during the regular session. Cleanup volume added another 53K contracts.

Market Tone & Notable Factors

Tuesday’s session leaned bearish as sellers took control early and maintained pressure through much of the day. Despite multiple rallies, each failed to break above prior resistance, and the session ultimately closed well below both the overnight midpoint and the prior close. The full session declined 45.50 points (-0.71%) with consistent lower highs into the close.

Market-on-Close (MOC) imbalance data showed $1.277B to buy. Symbol imbalance finished at -52.8%, signaling moderate sell pressure but falling short of the -66% threshold for an extreme signal. This likely contributed to the late afternoon drift lower without causing a sharp selloff.

In summary, Tuesday’s session showed persistent downside pressure with failed rallies and closing weakness, setting a cautious tone heading into Wednesday’s trade.

How to read the MIM

Technical Edge 

Fair Values for August 6, 2025:

Daily Market Recap 📊

For Tuesday, August 5, 2025

Weekly Market  📈

For the week ending Friday, August 1, 2025

Calendars

Economic

Today

Important Upcoming / Recent

Earnings

Upcoming

Recent

Full Calendar

Trading Room Summaries

Polaris Trading Group Summary – Tuesday, August 5, 2025

Market Overview and Trade Strategy

Key Market Action and Levels

Trade Execution and Lessons

Community and Participation

Summary

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Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.

Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!