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Our View

The ES traded down to 5210.50 on Globex after Trump’s tariffs, and the world struck back with China leading the way by implementing a 34% tariff on U.S. imports. I know I said I wanted to buy the open and posted the Jobs report counter-trend buy opportunity, but IMPRO : Dboy (Fri: 9:30:49 AM) said, had the ES not rallied 100 points off its Globex low, this would have been a perfect buy on the open. It’s important to remember I am a day trader and I go with the flow, up or down.

The ES made a February 19 high at 6,166.50 and as of Friday’s low at 5,074.00, the futures have fallen 1,092.50 points or -17.71% high to low

The NQ made its high at 22,425.75 and as of Friday’s low at 17,387.50, it’s fallen 5,038.25 points, down 22.46% high to low for the year.

The YM, which fell 2,200 points on Friday, made its high at 45,227 on January 31st at and made its low on Friday at 38,303.00. That is a loss of 6,924 points or down 15.31% high to low for the year.

The RTY made its high for the year at 2,337.00 on January 22 and traded down to 1,792.20, a loss of 544.80 points or -23.31% high to low for the year.

This is astonishing, but not when you consider how much it has gone up from the credit crisis low, 821%, how much it has gone up from the 2000 tech bubble, 532%, how much it has gone up from the COVID-16 lows,178%, how much it has rallied over the last 5 years, 119%, and how much the ES rallied from the 2023 low to the 2024 high, 53.9%.

I have been pretty specific about the over-investment in the Magnificent 7 stocks and the numbers are scary. The turning point was in January when China released the DeepSeek chatbot. NVDA has lost 48.31 points or -33.87% and has lost $1.188 trillion in market capitalization. The 7 stocks that make up the Magnificent 7 have lost a total of approximately $4.06 trillion from their peak. Total stock market capital loss since January 20 is $10.95 trillion, and the 2½ tariff round was $6.6 trillion. Absolutely astonishing.

The volume always jumps during sell-offs and crashes, but it tends to be what I consider bad volume. The level of auto trading, auto hedging, headline-news algos, HFT, and program trading are the ones doing all the volume. Sure, there are millions of retail traders, but just because a brokerage firm may have a high number of accounts doesn’t mean a large percentage of them are actually trading every day.

The price action in the ES, NQ, YM, and RTY is more volatile than the outbreak of COVID-19. There are no ticks in the ES and NQ, and you can forget trying to find points to buy or sell—it’s impossible, and stops get jammed every time. Unless you have a resting bid or offer in, you end up chasing the prices. The way the futures move is 5 and 10 points at a time, and the NQ is even more ridiculous. If you are trying to sell the NQ and hesitate a millisecond, you’re out—it could be 30 to 50 points higher in 20 seconds. As I’ve always said, I didn’t go to college, but I don’t think you need an MBA to figure out that things are shifting in a negative direction. Can’t rule out a bounce to 5100. Use stops.

Net changes after Sunday night’s Globex session opening drop:

ESM25 Point Loss
Point Loss = High – Low = 6,235.00 – 4,832.00 = 1,403.00 points
The ESM25 lost 1,403 points.

Percentage Loss = (High – Low) / High × 100 = (6,235.00 – 4,832.00) / 6,235.00 × 100 ≈ 22.50%
The total percentage loss is approximately 22.50%.

NQM25 Point Loss
Point Loss = High – Low = 22,672.00 – 16,460.00 = 6,212.00 points
The NQM25 lost 6,212 points.

Percentage Loss = (High – Low) / High × 100 = (22,672.00 – 16,460.00) / 22,672.00 × 100 ≈ 27.41%
The total percentage loss is approximately 27.41%.

European stocks fell 4%, the yield on the 10-year note is below 4%, crude oil fell to $62.00 a barrel, and the dollar remains near its weakest level of the year. Gold fell $65.60 down to $3,056.10, and Bitcoin settled at 82,876. Everything is moving.

The week ahead has 8 economic reports including CPI and PPI, 9 Fed speakers, the March Fed minutes, and the big banks reporting earnings on Friday ($JPM, $WFC, $MS, $BK, and $BLK).

Our lean: the ES has fallen 1.4K points—so far, every support level has failed. Let’s face it, the public is spooked. For now: 4832–4850, 4820, 4796, 4773, 4752, 4720–4716. I put out 5200–5300 then 4700, just never thought it would happen so fast. The high last Wednesday after Trump started talking was 5773, and last night’s early Globex low was 4832.00—that’s a 941-point drop in basically less than 2½ days.

I’m not saying the low is in, but what I am saying is the ES and NQ have gone down too much, too fast, and are oversold. I think there’s a good chance we rally today. If the ES sells off early, I’ll be looking to buy weakness—but if we gap sharply higher, I think you can sell the rallies and buy the drops. This isn’t a bull call, it’s more about a bounce.

MiM and Daily Recap

The S&P 500 futures (ES) endured a turbulent decline on Friday, with strong selling pressure emerging early and persisting throughout the session. The market opened the regular session at 5292.00, following a soft overnight Globex close at 5292.25, already down 2.41% from the previous day’s settlement of 5423.00. The opening hour saw volatility spike, with ES printing a morning high of 5322.00 at 9:03 AM—up 111 points from the 7:30 AM low of 5210.50. However, that initial strength quickly unraveled.

A deep breakdown followed the open at 5292, driving the index to an intraday low of 5153.50 at 10:48 AM, marking a 168.50-point slide (-3.17%) from the morning’s high. A midday rebound lifted prices to 5280.75 at 11:18 AM (+127.25), but this recovery stalled, and ES drifted lower again to 5136.00 by 1:18 PM. 

Another rally attempt emerged into the early afternoon, reaching 5212.25 at 2:00 PM, though it failed to recapture the earlier highs. The index then dipped to 5107.50 by 2:42 PM before a final push to 5192.75 at 3:33 PM. But this bounce was short-lived, and a final leg lower ensued. ES reached a late low of 5074.00 at 4:24 PM, just before the cleanup session. A modest lift brought it to 5108.75 at 4:45 PM, and the regular session closed at 5108.50—down 183.50 points or 3.47% from the open and 327.50 points (6.02%) from the prior day’s cash close.

The cleanup session offered little relief, with ES settling at 5096.75 by 5:00 PM, rounding out a full-session drop of 326.25 points (-6.02%).

Friday’s session was decisively bearish, characterized by sustained lower highs and lower lows throughout both the Globex and regular trading hours. Despite a few recovery attempts, sellers maintained control, particularly following failed rallies near midday and late afternoon.

Volume during the regular session was elevated at over 2.4 million contracts, with the full session nearing 3.45 million—suggesting strong conviction behind the move. The $C–C change of -327.50 points (-6.02%) underscores the extent of the damage.

Market-on-Close data did not offer much support into the final bell. The imbalance peaked at $608M to buy, with the buy/sell dollar ratio at 64.8%—just under the 66% threshold for a strong signal. The symbol imbalance also registered at 57.3% to the buy side, indicating mild buying interest but not enough to arrest the decline. Even as buy interest built into 3:58 PM, with a peak imbalance of $1.33B vs. $721M in sell flow, price failed to sustain a recovery.

How to read the MIM

Technical Edge

Fair Values for April 7, 2025:

Daily Breadth Data 📊

Weekly Breadth Data 📈

Room Summaries:

Polaris Trading Group Summary Friday, April 4, 2025

Friday was a high-volatility, high-drama kind of Friday in the PTG trading room, with major directional moves and some valuable trading wisdom shared along the way.

Market Environment

Key Trade Insights & Highlights

Powell’s Speech & Macro Themes

Emotional Discipline & Trading Psychology

End-of-Day Action

Final Thoughts

Despite the chaos, PTG traders navigated the storm well, with smart bearish setups and disciplined non-trades. There were multiple positive trade calls, especially on the short side, and valuable lessons about emotional control and rule-following shared throughout the day.

As David put it best:

DTG Room Preview – Monday, April 7, 2025

Calendars

Economic

Important events for the rest of the week:

S&P 500 Earnings

Recent

Full MTS Calendars

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Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.

Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!