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Riding the Rollercoaster: ES Swings, NVDA Surges, and Bitcoin Tumbles
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Our View
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Well, the ES rallied then sold off after President Trump said he was considering 25% tariffs on the European Union. The ES made an early-day high at 6023.75 before dropping 79.25 points down to 5945.50 after the Trump headlines. This, my fellow traders, is the world we live in.
Trump also supported Elon Musk’s push to require federal workers to respond to an email about what they accomplished last week or risk being fired. I call this CNW… crazy, nuts, and wild.
I figured the markets would rally ahead of NVDA earnings, and they did. Had Trump not blown things up before the NVDA earnings release, I’m pretty sure the ES and NQ would have finished at their highs. But it seems like he doesn’t care about how fragile the stock market has become, and clearly, his timing has shown that. If there’s anything to learn from this, it’s that the markets are going to remain in a state of flux for a very long time. Traders need to stay on guard 24/7. President Trump has given new meaning to my saying: these are not our father’s markets or charts.
The only other time I can remember this type of price action was during the 2008 Credit Crisis, which lasted for over two years. That period was packed with economic news and Fed headlines, much like today, though back then, we didn’t have tariff headlines. Still, wild, out-of-nowhere swings dominated the market until the Fed started its quantitative easing program.
It’s no surprise that Nvidia reported earnings and revenue that beat expectations, but I question how long it will last. I think there is stiff competition in the U.S., and there’s no doubt that China is catching up and there will probably be more DeepSeeks in the future. AI competition is everywhere—not only is it not going to stop, it’s going to accelerate.
Call it what you want, but I think there is a flight to quality going on. Treasury yields logged their sixth straight day of declines, and Bitcoin prices sank, putting the cryptocurrency on pace for its worst monthly performance since June 2022.
I’ve heard that CME clearing firms have been sending out Bitcoin margin calls for a full week and discouraging firms from allowing their customers to trade it as Bitcoin fell below $85,000. On Tuesday, Bitcoin suffered its biggest one-day percentage drop in nearly seven months.
Our Lean
I think we see higher prices, but I also expect some stumbles along the way. The 6025-6030 zone looks like strong resistance, while 5950-5960 should act as solid support.
If the NQ is bid and yields are down again, we could see a larger bounce. That doesn’t mean all is forgotten—but only the BOTs know for sure.
Today, we have four economic releases and five useless Fed speakers.
From the Stock Trader’s Almanac
Beware The Ides of March
Rather turbulent in recent years with wild fluctuations and large gains and losses, March has been taking some mean end-of-quarter hits. In post-election years since 1950, March has tended to open strongly, and strength has generally persisted until shortly after mid-month (dashed arrow below). At which point, the major indexes lost momentum and closed out March with some choppy trading. Whereas over the recent 21 years March has trended lower through mid-month then rallied in the second half.
March packs a rather busy docket. It is the end of the first quarter, which brings with it quarterly Quadruple Witching and an abundance of portfolio maneuvers from The Street. March Quad-Witching Weeks have been quite bullish in recent years. But the week after has been nearly the exact opposite, DJIA down 22 of the last 37 years—and often down sharply.
Not a subscriber? Sign up today to continue reading our latest market analysis and trading recommendations and get a full run down of seasonal tendencies that occur throughout each month of the year in an easy-to-read calendar graphic with important economic release dates highlighted, Daily Market Probability Index bullish and bearish days, market trends around options expiration and holidays. In addition, the Monthly Vital Statistics Table combines stats for the Dow, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 and puts them all in a single location available at the click of a mouse.
MiM and Daily Recap
The S&P 500 E-mini Futures (ES) opened the overnight session at 5982.00 and initially moved higher, reaching 6004.00 before pulling back to a low of 5977.50. The session remained choppy, with buyers and sellers testing key levels before settling at 5987.00, up 5.00 points (+0.08%) from the previous session’s close. Volume reached 205,080 contracts.
In the premarket session, the market hit its overnight high of 6004.00 at 8:30 a.m. before selling off into the open at 9:30 a.m. The regular session opened at 5987.25, with initial support found at 9:33 a.m. at 5978.25—a decline of 25.75 points from the pre-open high.
A strong rally followed, pushing prices to 6023.75 by 11:12 a.m., marking a gain of 45.50 points. Choppy price action ensued, with another attempt at a high of 6031.75 at 12:15 p.m. before sellers regained control. A prolonged selloff took the market down to 5945.50 by 2:06 p.m., representing a steep 76.25-point decline from the midday high. A late-day bounce lifted prices into the close, with the session finishing at 5972.00, down 15.25 points (-0.25%) from the gap open but up 1.50 points from the previous cash close. Regular session volume reached 1,542,082 contracts, with total volume across all sessions hitting 1.85 million contracts.
Market On Close (MOC) data revealed an initial sell imbalance of -763M, which expanded to 1B on the buy side by the end of the closing auction at 4:00 p.m. Despite this shift, there was no significant directional buying or selling pressure from a breadth perspective.
Despite early selling pressure, the market demonstrated resilience with strong intraday recoveries. Buyers defended key support levels throughout the day, particularly around 5945.50. The late-session recovery suggests a neutral-to-positive bias heading into the next session. Ultimately, after significant swings, the market ended the day with little net change—reflecting a session that required a great deal of effort for minimal overall movement.
Technical Edge
Fair Values for February 27, 2025
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S&P: 12.8
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NQ: 49.99
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Dow: 52.87
Daily Breadth Data 📊
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NYSE Breadth: 51% Upside Volume
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Nasdaq Breadth: 60% Upside Volume
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Total Breadth: 56% Upside Volume
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NYSE Advance/Decline: 50% Advance
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Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 57% Advance
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Total Advance/Decline: 53% Advance
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NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 45 / 76
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Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 69 / 208
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NYSE TRIN: 0.77
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Nasdaq TRIN: 0.86
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
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NYSE Breadth: 46% Upside Volume
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Nasdaq Breadth: 53% Upside Volume
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Total Breadth: 50% Upside Volume
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NYSE Advance/Decline: 34% Advance
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Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 31% Advance
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Total Advance/Decline: 33% Advance
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NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 183 / 129
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Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 396 / 312
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NYSE TRIN: 1.18
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Nasdaq TRIN: 0.89
Guest Posts:
Dan @ GTC Traders
Colgate (CL) and the U.S. Dollar Index
Two trades of the few trades that we have on at the moment in the GTC Sample Portfolio for random outcome? Long Colgate (CL) and a full short on the U.S. Dollar.
We began the Colgate (CL) position on January 27th , when it first began to show strength, entering a
We had to withstand just a bit of drawdown, but the introductory position was small anyways, so we were able to do this with ease. At the present time, we’re monitoring any bounces and strength on the smaller periodicities to see when it may be time to add to the position.
For the U.S. Dollar? Again, we went short on the rally on February 19th . Again, a very small introductory position. The next day? We added to the position, and increased to a standard full sized position.
Both are attempts at trend trades. And for those who do not know? Trend trading when done profitably (Think DUNN’s WMA Program) can be wildly, wildly profitable. While at the same time have a notoriously low accuracy rates. While DUNN has outperformed for many decades? The accuracy rate is probably in the 40% range.
So the U.S. Dollar short we will keep riding until it becomes obvious we were wrong? Or a trend lower begins. The point is? We don’t know.
Thus, the law of random outcome, and the need for traders to be able to grind it out. That quality probably more than any other is what determines why some traders achieve success? And others fail. The willingness (or being unwilling as the case may be) to grind.
Until next time? Stay safe … and trade well.
Trading Room News:
Polaris Trading Group Summary: Wednesday, February 20, 2025
Morning Session: Strong Bullish Momentum
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Overnight Strength: Both ES and NQ hit their initial upper target zones with precision. ES fulfilled the 5995–6005 range, and NQ reached 21320–21360 as outlined in the Daily Trade Strategy (DTS).
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Cycle Day 2: Market was in rally mode off deep Cycle Day 1 extremes. Expected MATD (Morning After Trend Day) rhythms played out early.
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Key Bullish Levels:
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ES sustaining above 5980 targeted 5995–6005, then aimed for 6020.50.
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NQ above 21195 targeted 21320–21360, then stretched towards 21385.
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Target Hits:
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ES tagged 6020.50, confirming the bullish thesis.
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NQ hit 21360, aligning with the planned bullish scenario.
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Midday: Bulls in Control, Absorption vs. Distribution
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Bulls maintained control, absorbing sellers, described as “PACMAN” by PTGDavid.
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Key Decision Levels:
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ES: 6025
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NQ: 21400
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Signs of Market Weakness:
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Bid-Ask Volume Ratio showed net selling into highs—raising the question of Absorption vs. Distribution.
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Dynamic LIS (Line in the Sand) Levels Identified:
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ES needed to break 6010 to confirm a move lower.
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NQ needed to break 21350 for a potential decline.
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PTGDavid took a lunch break as the market consolidated.
Afternoon Session: Distribution Takes Over
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Major Shift: PTGDavid confirmed distribution over absorption, signaling a market turn.
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Key Breakdown:
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ES lost the 5980 LIS, shifting bias to the sell side.
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Lower targets 5965–5960 HIT with ultra-precision per DTS.
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Bounce Play:
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Prior Value Low at 5950 acted as a support level, triggering a 15-point bounce.
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PTGDavid noted: “Grind ’em back up.”
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Closing Action & NVDA Earnings Anticipation
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Market on Close (MOC):
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$810M Sell Imbalance reported but turned out to be a non-event.
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NVDA Earnings at 4:20 PM:
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Traders squared positions into the close, except for the boldest traders willing to hold through earnings.
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Key Takeaways & Lessons Learned:
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Trade Plan Executed with Ultra-Precision: Both bullish and bearish targets hit as per DTS Briefing.
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Flexibility Was Key: Market started bullish but shifted to distribution in the afternoon—traders had to adapt.
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LIS Levels Provided Clear Guidance: 5980 (ES) and 21350 (NQ) were key pivots for directional bias.
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Understanding Market Context Matters: Absorption vs. Distribution debate helped traders avoid being caught on the wrong side.
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Bounce Opportunities Exist: Even after a breakdown, recognizing value areas like 5950 (ES) allowed for profitable counter-trend bounces.
Overall, an excellent day of execution with well-defined targets, key levels, and trade scenarios playing out as anticipated.
DTG Room Preview – Thursday, February 27, 2025
Markets Hold Steady Ahead of Nvidia Earnings
U.S. stock indexes closed near flat on Wednesday as traders awaited Nvidia’s (NVDA) earnings and conference call. Volatility increased ahead of the report, with the ES 5-day average daily range exceeding 84 points.
Oil Prices Hit Yearly Lows
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dipped below $69 a barrel, down 3% in the last two sessions. The decline comes amid growing U.S. trade tensions and Iraq’s agreement with Kurdistan to resume oil exports. Additionally, former President Trump stated he would revoke Chevron’s Venezuelan oil license, posing risks to the country’s economic recovery.
Nvidia Earnings Beat Expectations
Despite a 2% stock decline in 2025, Nvidia surpassed estimates on both top and bottom lines, generating $11 billion in Blackwell chip revenue over 24 months. CEO Jensen Huang highlighted the vast opportunities for AI-driven technology during the earnings call.
Key Earnings Reports
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Premarket: Moderna (MRNA), Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), NCLH, TD, VALE, and others.
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After the Bell: Dell Technologies (DELL), HP (HPQ), Duolingo (DUOL), Monster Beverage (MNST), and more.
Economic Data to Watch
A packed economic calendar includes GDP, GDP Price Index, Durable Goods Orders, and Unemployment Claims at 8:30 AM ET, followed by Pending Home Sales.
Market Trends
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Whale traders lean bullish into the U.S. session open, but overnight large trader volume remains light.
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Technical Levels: The ES intermediate-term uptrend channel bottom held Wednesday, keeping the index in a short-term downtrend within a broader uptrend.
ES -Week to Week
The intraday bull/bear line for today sits at 5976.25, acting as the critical pivot point that determines market sentiment. Holding above this level keeps the buyers in control, while a move below could invite more selling pressure. This line remains steady, emphasizing its importance for today’s session.
Currently, price is near 6007.25, trading just above the key pivot zone. Our next level up from there is the 6020 area, with the range high target for the day at 6038. If the bulls take control above 6038, the next target is 6076.
If price starts to weaken, watch for initial support at 5976, which acts as our bull/bear pivot. Below that, stronger support lies at 5963. A breach of this level could open the door to deeper downside levels, targeting 5935.5 and 5915, our lower range target for the day. The next key lower bound is 5857.
Longer-term bull/bear is at 5947.75. A break of that has us in the longer-term bear market.
NQ – Week to Week
The bull/bear line for NQ today is at 21,205, marking the key pivot for the session. Holding above this level keeps the potential for a bullish rebound alive, while sustained action below could invite further selling pressure.
Currently, price is trading near 21,321.75, slightly above the bull/bear line. If the bulls maintain control, the first upside target is 21,474.75, with a larger objective towards 21,513.8 our range high target on the day. Beyond that, the next key resistance is 21,803.
If weakness returns and price falls below 21,205, expect support to emerge around 21,146. A breach of this level could accelerate selling towards 21,055, with a lower target near 20,896 our range low target for the day. The deeper downside level to watch is 20,605.75.
Sellers remain dominant below 21,205, but regaining footing above this line shifts the focus back to a bullish recovery. Keep an eye on momentum around these critical levels for directional confirmation.
We have swapped to a bearish longer term mode and that won’t change until we see prices above 22,291.
Calendars
Economic Calendar Today
This Week’s High Importance
Earnings:
Released
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Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.
Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!
This post goes out as an email to our subscribers every day and is posted for free here around 2 PM ET. To get your real-time copy, sign up for the free or premium version here: Opening Print Subscribe.
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