Mondays are notoriously slow for the CME Group’s equity futures, but yesterday was an extreme example. After the open the S&P futures (ESH15:CME) the Nasdaq futures (NQH15:CME) and the Dow futures (YMH15:CBT) sold off a little and rallied a little. MrTopStep has many trading rules to describe the market action, and the one that best fit yesterday’s trade was “too high to buy and too firm to sell.” That dilemma set up the lowest-volume day of the year.

The CME Group index futures ended the day slightly lower, pulling back from record highs made last Friday on the close. Both the Dow and the S&P fell, while the Nasdaq rose 0.1%.The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell to its lowest level of the year on Friday but closed up 1.8% at 14.56. Most traders said the lack of any news kept the markets in narrow ranges. Crude oil futures had a big day, trading all the way down to $48.75, closing down 2.7% at $49.45 a barrel.

For the month, the Dow is up 5.5% and the S&P has advanced 5.7% and the Nasdaq has jumped 7% to its highest level in nearly 15 years. I remember these prices in the Nasdaq in 1999 – 2000 and how tech stocks rose every day. The Nasdaq is now close to its all-time highs set in March of 2000. Many traders we talk to think there could be a big selling opportunity in the futures at 48.50 to 49.50, but who’s to say the Nasdaq doesn’t just keep going? Picking tops in the futures is a tough way to trade. The markets may be overextended on the upside, but that doesn’t mean they can’t go further.

I am keeping things simple today. Every one of the MrTopStep crew is working overtime to make sure the PitBull Unplugged webinar will be a smashing success. There are a few others doing webinars on Saturday and all I have to say is good luck. Our webinar will include one of the best independent traders of our time, a look at MarketDelta, LiveSquawk and Marlin Cobb from MrTopStep will be showing the MiM and some other cool stuff we are working on. I hope to see all of you there.

Thank you,
Danny Riley, AKA MrTopStep

MrTopStep Unplugged Feb 28th webinar featuring the PitBull Marty Schwartz.

Sign Up Here!!!

$AAPL just passed CME Apr15 Crude futures to become symbol with most trades today – 318,000

Our view: Jeez where did all the volume and trade go? It’s like someone turned off a switch. The volumes were so low the algos couldn’t eat. The total range in the ESH15 during the day session was only 8.50 points (handles) and you know what? I think it may stay like this for a few more days. Our view remains unchanged, sell the early rallies and buy weakness. It feels like there are more upside stops to run.

“S&P Futures Lowest Volume of the Year”

As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.

• In Asia 9 out of 10 markets quoted closed higher: Shanghai Comp CLOSED, Hang Seng -0.35%, Nikkei +0.74%
• Europe is mixed, 6 of 12 markets are trading modestly higher: DAX +0.01%, FTSE +0.12%, MICEX -1.26%, Athens GD.AT +7.09%
• Fair value: S&P -2.46 , Nasdaq -1.19 , Dow -25.66
• Total volume: LOW 848k ESH and 4.6k SPH traded
• Economic schedule: Redbook, S&P Case-Shiller HPI, PMI Services Flash, consumer confidence, Janet Yellen giving her semiannual monetary policy testimony to Senate Banking Committee in Washington, Richmond Manufacturing Index, 2-year note auction.

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