Follow @MrTopStep on Twitter and please share if you find our work valuable!

Our View

In the trading dictionary I depend on, one word stands out the most: oversold. According to Goldman Sachs, total positioning has shifted meaningfully. Over the last two weeks, we’ve seen one of the largest short build-ups in recent years.

One of the things I’ve always followed is what I call “too long” or “too short” price action. I knew after the SPU (big S&P contract) sold off for 3 to 4 days, they were usually a buy. I also knew anything down 8 to 10 sessions was a screaming buy. But the rule I truly mastered came during my time doing UBS’s S&P futures index program trading business.

The key to being a successful bank program trader wasn’t how good the trader thought he was, because it all came down to me. If I was slow and the cash moved down fast, it was my fault. When the programs made $150k in 20 minutes, he “did it”—but in reality, it wasn’t him at all. It was me picking up the program trader, while I had a $20 billion hedge fund in one ear telling me to sell 600 or 800 contracts, and me repeating the order back to the hedge fund trader, and the UBS trader hearing all of it

Most of the time when the sell programs hit, the futures would drop quickly and trade at a discount of 1.00 to 1.50 points under fair value. But levels would move up and down, and he could hear me say, “I sold 250, working 500 to sell.” Like many patterns I followed, this one had a very high accuracy rate. And no one ever pointed it out or talked about it but me.

The first and second sell programs would go smoothly. But as the cash fell, all the other desks started jumping on the phones. It was simple, there were more bids around the pit now for sell programs. After the third sell program, and with me still hitting my own program bid, the cash would fall apart.

If I still had part of the sell order, I might get the fourth program off. But the fifth sell program was almost impossible to execute. By that time, every desk in the S&Ps doing program trading was putting in bids in the pit. The locals were nice and short. If there were 1.2k SPUs bid for, I’d tell the PitBull to buy them now—and up they would go. I’m not kidding: it worked 85% of the time. Within 15 minutes, the futures were back to where I did the first sell program.

Now… what’s that got to do with this? ES or SPY cash—it doesn’t matter. This type of price action still exists every day. When the ES sell programs become exhausted, the futures rally. And when selling eclipses—as Goldman said—and the news shifts, so do the programs.

Market Recap

The ES made a low on Globex at 6772.00, then rallied up to 6823.50 and opened Monday’s regular session at 6817.75, up +0.92%. After the open, the ES traded 6813.50 at 9:36, rallied up to 6835.50 at 9:45, pulled back to 6823.75, and rallied again to 6835.25, marking the RTH high. It then sold off to a new low at 6782.75 before rallying back up to 6821.75 at 12:05.

From there, it traded down to 6808.25 at 12:15, then rallied sharply to 6849.00 at 1:50. After a small pullback, a big buy program hit, pushing the ES through its previous high of 6853.75 and up to 6864.75 at 3:17.

After the high, the ES sold off to 6854.00 at 3:32, rallied to 6865.00, and traded 6864.25 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed a small imbalance building to $1.4 billion to buy around 3:55. It then traded up to 6866.00, sold off a few points, and traded 6857.00 on the 4:00 cash close, settling at 6857.25, up 103.75 points or +1.54% over yesterday’s close.

The NQ settled at 25,720.75, up 548.75 points or +2.21%. Bitcoin settled at 106,560, up 1.91%, silver settled at $50.40, up 4.7%, and the yield on the 10-yr note settled at 4.127%.

In the end, it’s a big game of hocus pocus—one day it looks horrible, and the next day it looks great. In terms of the ESs’ and NQs’ overall tone, the index markets reacted positively to government reopening news. In terms of the ESs’ overall trade, volume was high at 1.5 million contracts but lower than Friday’s 2.04 million.

MiM

Market-on-Close Recap – Monday, November 10, 2025

The market-on-close (MOC) imbalance opened with mixed signals across sectors but transitioned into a firm rotation rather than a broad directional move. Early readings showed total sell pressure of roughly $2.39 billion against $2.27 billion in buys, a net imbalance of about $115 million to sell, which quickly narrowed and flipped positive before tapering into the close. The 15:55 peak saw $3.52B in buys versus $1.71B sells — a strong intraday buy surge that eased into $479M by 16:01.

Sector data showed a clear bifurcation: Consumer Defensive (+87%), Healthcare (+58%), Energy (+62%), and Financials (+61%) attracted notable buy imbalances, while Technology (-68%), Real Estate (-76%), and Industrials (-51%) led the sell side. This combination pointed to a defensive and value-tilted MOC flow rather than a risk-on chase.

On the symbol level, NVDA (+$265M), AAPL (+$68.9M), and PLTR (+$113.7M) dominated Technology flows despite the sector’s aggregate sell lean, showing internal rotation between software and semiconductors. AMZN (+$35M) and HD (+$46M) represented consumer participation, while JPM (+$46M) and V (+$43M) stood out in Financials. The heaviest negative lean came from Technology (-68%), indicating wholesale distribution, while sectors near ±50% such as Communication Services (+51.6%) and Industrials (-51.6%), reflected more balanced rotation.

At 15:51, the S&P 500’s subset showed a modest +$68.7M net buy, with NYSE running +$103M to buy, offset by NASDAQ’s -$334M sell. The weighted leans — NYSE +51.7% versus NASDAQ -59.7% — encapsulated a clear large-cap tech unwind offset by traditional sector accumulation.

Overall, the MOC session reflected a rotation out of growth and into defensives, with heavy profit-taking in Technology offset by consumer and healthcare demand — a rotational rather than directional close.

Technical Edge 

Fair Values for November 11, 2025:

Daily Market Recap 📊

For Monday, November 10, 2025

Weekly Breadth Data  📈

For Week Ending Friday, November 7, 2025

Calendars

Economic Calendar

Today

Important Upcoming

Earnings

Full Calendar

Trading Room Summaries

Discovery Trading Group Room Preview – Tuesday, November 11, 2025

Macro & Headlines:

Affiliate Disclosure: This newsletter may contain affiliate links, which means we may earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase. This comes at no additional cost to you and helps us continue providing valuable content. We only recommend products or services we genuinely believe in. Thank you for your support!

Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.

Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!