Our View

There has been a lot of talk about Tech / AI losing some of its glimmer. I’m not sure about that, but what I am sure about is that there have been a lot of big rotations — especially last week. The Dow and S&P made new all-contract highs, while the Nasdaq is 1.4% off its 52-week high, and the Russell 2000 closed up 0.8% and up 4.6% on the week.

I saw a lot of rotations at my S&P desk for above futures repositioning for pension hedge funds, but it was much more defined for the portfolio managers, AIG, and Bank of America business. But it’s a whole different story today, as there is some type of rotation literally going on every day. It’s also something I believe can — and should — be tracked.

Our View

After offering a softer tone at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Trump returned to the U.S. and issued several new threats on social media. These included 100% tariffs on Canada if it pursues any deal with China, along with public statements containing personal insults directed at Prime Minister Mark Carney. He also revoked Canada’s invitation to participate in his proposed “Board of Peace” initiative, part of broader diplomatic maneuvers.

Trump continued his demands for U.S. control over Greenland, including strategic military bases and infrastructure such as a “golden dome”—though he ruled out the use of force after announcing a vague “framework deal.” He warned that any opposition would be “remembered,” and also threatened to sue JPMorgan Chase. Additionally, he floated the idea of invoking NATO’s Article 5 to address the U.S. southern border.

As I’ve always said, I know some will say it’s just his “art of the deal,” but I believe a more diplomatic approach—rather than bullying countries—may be more effective. It’s becoming very clear that the U.S. is losing allies quickly.

Our View

In the last five days, the DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) has fallen 1.88% and is down 1.91% year-to-date. Highlighting this week’s weakness was a warning from Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who suggested potential action on abnormal currency moves as speculation grows over possible intervention after the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reportedly contacted financial institutions to ask about the yen’s exchange rate. On Sunday, during a televised debate among party leaders, Takaichi said:

Japanese government officials have also issued warnings related to both bond yields and the yen, after yields on the country’s longest-duration bonds surged to record levels earlier last week before pulling back. Several major currencies have also rallied or shown relative strength against the U.S. dollar:

I had a floor operation in the CME currency quadrant for many years, with the main account being Dubai Holding—the global investment conglomerate owned by Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, the Ruler of Dubai. It was one of the largest currency futures and options operations on the floor.

I also took an over $1 million hit from an account transferred over from Credit Agricole when they shut down their London brokerage unit. It was a small account that was short Swiss franc options.

I know most traders in the U.S. don’t think about currency moves that much, but when they happen, they can create extreme volatility across interest rates and stocks.

Below are 3-month and 5-year charts of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY).

I think this should be a major concern for the U.S. dollar…

I didn’t even mention Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer saying, “Senate Democrats will not provide the votes” to fund immigration enforcement—part of a six-bill package set for action next week. This just adds to the already full boat of news hitting the tape.

I’m still a bull, but I have to admit—I think the markets are on shaky ground.

Trump’s armada is steaming into the Persian Gulf, and while there was a report that he’s not planning an attack but rather a blockade, a recent headline claimed the U.S. has informed Iraq, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE of a pending attack on Iran.

It’s Sunday night and the ES opened down at 6904.00, made a low at 6870.00, and just traded up to 6933.00. It’s now at 6929.25, down 5.75 points.

I still think this is the year of the VIX, and we have not seen anything yet.

Trump did a lot of backtracking last week, but he’s once again backing himself into a corner in the Middle East. I’ve told the PitBull many times that he’s been going too far, and only tonight did he finally admit it. He mentioned the U.S. $38.5 trillion debt and how Trump seems to just overlook it. When I brought up the DXY weakness, he noted the index traded down to 89.00 in January 2021.

That said, I’m going to stick with it. I know the ES can rally, I just don’t think it’ll hold.

Our lean: Sell the dead cat bounces. There’s a pile of shit coming our way this week.

I’ve been working hard on new AI levels, and in the next few days, I’ll be rolling them out. I’m not an “AI guy,” but I think all the big newsletters are using it, and I believe my work will be very good.

Market Recap

The ES traded up to 6964.00 on Globex and opened Friday’s regular session at 6938.00. After the open, the ES reached 6964.00 again mid-morning, with minor intraday peaks around 6963.25–6960.50, and then sold off down to the daily low at 6924.75. There were brief extensions during midday weakness and choppy rotations, followed by a rally back up to the 6940–6945 area through the afternoon in a low-volume chop with back-and-forth swings.

The ES held steady into the late session without significant late-day volatility and traded 6948.00 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $600 million to sell. It closed at 6945.50 on the 4:00 cash close, up +0.50 points or +0.01%.

After 4:00, the ES pulled back slightly to 6933.75 and settled at 6945.75, up 0.75 points or +0.01%.

In the end, it was a low-conviction trading session with rallies that faded quickly and only small bounces. In terms of the ES’s overall tone, it couldn’t hold meaningful moves in either direction.

In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was lighter than recent averages at 1,172,240 contracts, the lowest volume in 8 sessions.

This Week’s Major U.S. Economic Reports, Earnings, and Fed Speak

Monday, Jan. 26

Tuesday, Jan. 27

Wednesday, Jan. 28

Thursday, Jan. 29

Friday, Jan. 30

Needless to say, this week is packed with major economic reports, the Fed’s two-day meeting, a long list of high-profile earnings reports, and continued headline risk. According to FactSet, a total of 103 S&P companies are reporting earnings this week.

Today’s BTS Levels:

ES H

The bull/bear line for the ES is at 6945.25. This is the key pivot for today’s trade. Acceptance above this level keeps the tone constructive, while failure to hold keeps the market vulnerable to rotation lower.

ES is currently trading near 6939.75, just below the bull/bear line. This places the market in a neutral-to-bearish posture early, with chop likely unless 6945.25 is reclaimed and held.

Below the market, first support comes in at 6938.00, followed by 6931.50. A failure through these levels opens the door to 6924.75. If selling accelerates, the lower range target sits at 6887.25, with extreme downside risk toward 6832.75.

On the upside, a sustained move above 6945.25 targets 6964.00. Above that, the upper range target is 7003.25, where responsive selling is expected on the first test.

Overall, ES remains range-bound unless it can reclaim and hold above 6945.25. Strength above this level favors a rotation toward 6964.00 and potentially 7003.25. Failure to regain the bull/bear line keeps the risk skewed toward 6931.50 and 6924.75, with deeper downside possible if sellers gain momentum.

NQ H

The bull/bear line for the NQ is at 25,720.25. This is the key level that defines today’s bias. Acceptance above this level favors rotational upside attempts, while sustained trade below keeps pressure on the downside.

NQ is currently trading near 25,690, remaining below the bull/bear line and signaling short-term weakness. Failure to reclaim 25,720.25 keeps downside risk active, with immediate support at 25,605 and then 25,540.25. A break below 25,453.75 opens the door for a deeper liquidation toward 25,203.

On the upside, resistance begins at 25,738.25, followed by 25,845.75. If NQ can reclaim and hold above 25,720.25, buyers can press toward 25,986.50, with the reach target sitting at 26,237.25.

Overall, the tone remains bearish below 25,720.25. Bulls need a clean reclaim and acceptance above this level to shift momentum higher. Until then, rallies are vulnerable to rejection.

Polaris Trading Group Summary – Friday, January 23, 2026

Friday was structured around Cycle Day 2 (CD2) – often a “balancing/consolidation” day, and that played out as expected. ES traded largely within defined boundaries, with early fulfillment of key levels, followed by 2-way traffic and consolidation. Meanwhile, NQ led directional momentum, fulfilling multiple bullish targets and driving market sentiment.

Key Trade Highlights & Fulfilled Levels:

Lessons & Insights:

End of Day Wrap-Up:

DTG Room Preview – Monday, January 26, 2026

MARKET & MACRO SUMMARY

Equities
• S&P 500 closed lower again last week, down ~0.4%, extending recent pressure ahead of this week’s key catalysts.
• Futures are softer this morning, with major indices sliding about 0.3–0.4% ahead of the Fed decision and Big Tech earnings.
• Volatility contracted last week as the bull breakout failed to materialize; ES 50‑day is acting as support, while former up‑channel resistance remains near-term upside resistance.

Federal Reserve & Policy
• The January FOMC meeting is live this week, and markets almost fully price no rate change.
• Attention remains on Trump’s choice for the next Fed Chair once Powell’s term ends — Rick Rieder has surged as the leading candidate in betting markets.

Geopolitical Shocks & Bonds
• Geopolitical concerns — Iran, Venezuela, Greenland/Europe tensions — are feeding broader risk aversion and underpinning safe‑haven flows.
• Declining dollar trends and weaker demand for US debt are supportive for non‑rate assets.

PRECIOUS & INDUSTRIAL COMMODITIES – RUNNING HOT

Gold & Silver
• Gold just hit fresh record highs above $5,100/oz on strong safe‑haven demand and dollar weakness.
• Silver continues parabolic gains above $100/oz and is up ~50%+ YTD.
• Metals rally framed as fear gauge tied to policy uncertainty, tariff risks, and central bank positioning.

Industrial Metals
• Strong demand backdrop remains for copper, lithium, and other base metals as AI data center build‑outs and electrification demand persist.

Energy & Natural Gas
• Natural gas saw extraordinary moves as Winter Storm impacts linger, with supply volatility and outages reported across the US.

Policy Support for Miners
• US government planning capital injections and financing for strategic rare earth/mineral producers — boosting related equities pre‑market.

EARNINGS & SCHEDULE HIGHLIGHTS

This Week’s Key Reports
Premarket
• Ryanair, Steel Dynamics, Nucor, BRO, WRB.
Tuesday
• Boeing, GM, UPS, UnitedHealth, HCA, Kimberly‑Clark, NextEra, Northrop Grumman, PACCAR, RTX, Sysco, Synchrony.

Big Tech Focus
• Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, Apple all reporting this week — earnings and commentary on AI capex & ROI will be central.

TECHNICAL MARKET STRUCTURE (ES)

Resistance Levels
• ~6963–65s (former up‑channel)
• ~7062–67s
• ~7213–18s

Support Levels
• ~6833–36s
• ~6386–81s
• ~6192–87s

Trend is balanced; break above resistance broadens upside, while downside follow‑through opens deeper support zones.

WEEK AHEAD ECONOMIC CALENDAR

• Durable Goods @ 8:30 ET (today).
• Fed decision & press.
• Multiple major earnings and macro data releases.

Key Themes for Traders This Week:
• Nasdaq & S&P direction hinges on Fed guidance + Big Tech narratives
• Precious metals remain in fear‑driven uptrend
• A weaker USD and geopolitical uncertainty are broad market tailwinds
• Rate pause likely — no cuts priced until later in 2026