Our View

The S&P goes up, the S&P goes down—and then it goes up again, a lot more.

The ES traded down to 6888.00 and rallied up to 6918.50 on Globex before opening Friday’s regular session at 6902.00, up 48 points or 0.70% from the prior settlement. It then sold off down to 6873.50 at 10:20 ET, rallied back up to 6899.50 (touching that level around both 10:30 and 11:18 ET), dropped down to a new session low of 6856.50 at 12:18 ET, rallied up to a lower high at 6876.25 at 12:33 ET, and made the low for the day at 6843.50 at 1:18 ET.

That’s when some small ES buy programs started to hit, pushing the ES up to 6877.50 at 2:40 ET. After a small pullback to the 6868.75 level, it traded 6880.00 as the 3:50 ET imbalance showed $2.9 billion to buy, and traded 6872.00 on the 4:00 ET cash close.

 After 4:00 ET, the ES edged higher in closing Globex action amid light volume and pre-weekend positioning, reclaiming 6885.00 by 4:30 ET and trading 6872.25 on the 5:00 futures close, up +18.25 points or +0.27%. The NQ settled at 26,004.00, up +121 points or +0.47% on the day.

In the end, Friday’s trade was a great example of my three parts to the trading day: what happens on Globex, what happens after the 9:30 open, and what happens in the last hour. The ES and the NQ fall—but they don’t stay down long.

If you look at the daily net changes over the last 9 sessions (Oct 21–31), the NQ has risen 6 out of 8 sessions (75%) for a total gain of +2.80%, while the ES has been up 5 out of 8 sessions (62.5%) for a total gain of +1.49%. The NQ has been the clear leader on both up and down days and in net changes.

In terms of the ES’s overall tone, both the ES and NQ staged a big late-day rally with tech leading the way. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was pretty much in line with the week’s volumes at 1.678 million contracts traded.

2007-2008 Credit Crisis #NeverForget 

I really don’t think people think about this, but the 2008 Credit Crisis was 17 years ago. That means if you’re 30 years old, you were only 13 back then. If you’re 40, you were 23. I was 49. I had already seen just about every type of stock market crash. It wasn’t like 1978, and it wasn’t like the 2000 tech bubble—it was way bigger than both. The crisis cost $22 trillion globally, according to a GAO estimate.

I think the best word to describe it is vicious. In all my years on the floor and dealing with some of the largest banks, hedge funds, investment firms, and prop firms, I have never seen things freeze up so fast. I know some people will say they were on top of it, but to tell the truth, the only ones that were really on top of it were the banks that took the TARP money when they didn’t actually need it—like Goldman Sachs.

Every day for weeks and months, I marched onto the CME floor, right into ground zero for the credit crisis. Not 10 feet away from my desk: Bear Stearns to the right, and Lehman Brothers’ desk was right above mine— both just disappeared in the middle of September 2008. Watching Bear go down was shocking, but Lehman was monstrous. After QE1, everyone thought the markets would stabilize, and they did. The SPU rallied in December and then pushed back down to the famous March 2009 666 low.

2007–2008 Credit Crisis Timelines

Things were fast and furious during the 2007–2008 Global Financial Crisis. It began with the U.S. housing bubble peaking in 2004–2006 (S&P 500 ~1,200–1,400), fueled by subprime ARMs and low Fed rates.

I don’t think there was anyone on the floor as close to the credit crisis as I was. Taking down AIG’s book was stunning, after all the years of having them as a client and knowing everyone at the desk. And then Raj and BofA… obviously, losing both accounts was irreplaceable. The carnage and job losses were absolutely astonishing.

I had a saying back then: Wall Street threw a big party—and we weren’t invited, but we had to pay for it. And I fear that’s what’s happening now with runaway debt. I get the Fed’s tightening now, but if we ever hear “QE” again, we all better run for the hills.

Our View

What’s the old saying? There is no rest for the wicked? I told the PitBull, there’s no way anyone can keep up with all the news. It’s gotten so out of hand it’s unimaginable—and adding to it, this week features 135 S&P 500 companies reporting. According to FactSet, more than 300 S&P 500 companies have posted third-quarter results so far. Of those, over 80% have beaten expectations—and another 100-plus report this week, including key AI and tech names.

Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat, said:

Mondays have closed higher for the last nine weeks. I still think higher, I got long last night at 6885.50. Barring some mishap, I see new highs this week. The first trading week of November is bullish, but there are some things to keep on your radar: the NY mayoral race on Tuesday and this week’s economic calendar, which could cause additional volatility.

Our lean: Most days when the ES and NQ gap higher, they sell off and then rally. You can play it two ways—sell the early rallies on open, and buy the pullbacks, or just be patient and buy the drops.

@AlamancTrader
November Begins Best 3-Month Span!

November begins the “Best Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P 500, and the “Best Eight Months” for NASDAQ. Small caps come into favor during November, but don’t really take off until the last two weeks of the year. November is the best month of the year for DJIA, S&P 500 (since 1950), Russell 1000 (since 1979), and Russell 2000 (since 1979). November is the second best for NASDAQ (since 1971). Average performance ranges from 1.9% by DJIA and S&P 500 to a solid 2.6% by Russell 2000.

November maintains its status among the top performing months as fourth-quarter cash inflows from institutions have historically driven November to lead the best consecutive three-month span, November-January. However, the month has taken hits during bear markets and November 2000, down –22.9% (undecided election and a nascent bear), was NASDAQ’s second worst month on record—only October 1987 was worse.

In post-election years, November’s market prowess is essentially unchanged. DJIA has advanced in 14 of the last 18 post-election years since 1953 with an average gain of 1.6%. DJIA had been up 11-straight post-election year Novembers until 2021. Prior to that DJIA’s last losing post-election year November was all the way back in 1973 (-14.0%, Arab oil embargo began 10/19/1973). S&P 500 has been up 13 in the past 18 post-election years. Small caps perform well with Russell 2000 climbing in 8 of the past 11 post-election years, averaging 2.1%. The only real blemishes in the November post-election year record are 1969 (DJIA –5.1%), 1973 (DJIA –14.0%, OPEC oil embargo), and 2021 (DJIA –3.7%).

Today’s BTS Levels:

ES Z

The bull/bear line for the ES is at 6876.75. This level marks the pivot between bullish and bearish control for today’s session. Above it, buyers can attempt to regain footing; below it, sellers maintain the upper hand.

Currently, ES is trading around 6898.50, comfortably above the bull/bear line, suggesting early signs of strength in the pre-market session. Holding above 6876.75 keeps the door open for a potential push higher toward resistance.

Upside targets include 6926.25, which is today’s upper range target (pr-6926.25). A breakout above that could extend the move toward 6972.75, aligning with the r1 resistance zone. Sustained trade above 6926.25 would confirm buyer control intraday.

On the downside, support comes in first at 6874.00  and then 6843.50. The lower range target for today is 6827.25. A break and hold below this zone would likely invite additional selling pressure toward 6780.75.

Overall, the short-term tone leans bullish above 6876.75, but momentum remains fragile after last week’s pullback. Expect choppy trade between 6870.00 and 6920.00 until one side firmly breaks out of this consolidation zone.

NQ Z

The bull/bear line for the NQ is at 26,035. This is the key level that defines directional bias for today. Holding above 26,035 favors buyers, while trading below this level shifts momentum back to the sellers.

Currently, NQ is trading around 26,166.75 during the Globex session, showing moderate strength above the bull/bear line. If this level holds, look for a potential push toward 26,298.50, which marks the upper range target. A breakout above that level could extend toward 26,546.50 (R1 resistance), followed by 26,555.00 as the next significant upside level.

On the downside, immediate support rests near 26,004 and then 25,888.75. If sellers gain control below 26,035, a move toward 25,771.50 (lower range target) becomes likely. Further weakness could test 25,523.25, the next major support.

Overall, the tone remains cautiously bullish above 26,035, but failure to sustain above this level could quickly shift momentum bearish. Watch the 26,035 pivot closely to determine the day’s directional bias and manage risk accordingly.

DTG Room Preview – Monday, November 3, 2025