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Sleeping Markets. Waiting for the Rise and Shine.
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Our View
Markets are in a holding pattern, with traders watching several key macro and geopolitical risks unfold. The recent rally has lost momentum, and now we’re seeing tighter ranges and lower conviction. On the macro front, the Fed remains in focus as inflation readings continue to show mixed signals — not hot enough to provoke immediate hikes, but not cool enough to trigger cuts. At the same time, global growth concerns are creeping in, especially with weakness out of China and ongoing instability in emerging markets.
Earnings season is winding down, and while tech continues to hold up, breadth remains thin — a few names are doing most of the heavy lifting. With Jackson Hole around the corner, any shift in tone from Powell could spark volatility, and there are minutes to be released today.
Positioning is light, and volumes have been low — it’s the classic August chop. So the biggest issue right now may simply be a lack of direction. Without a strong catalyst, traders are hesitant to commit, and that’s leading to lots of noise and very little follow-through.
On the macro side, today we will get a glimpse of the health of the housing market with building permits at 8:30 am ET. A room member is warning about drawdowns today on Oil and Gas, watch those numbers at 10:30 am today. Fed member Fred Waller will be speaking at 11 am and 2 pm marks the release of the Fed Minutes which will help shed some light on their thinking going into the end of the year. Plenty of opportunity to inject some volatility into the markets today.
Our Lean
Our Lean: Stay patient. The key right now is discipline — don’t get chopped up in this low-volume, headline-driven environment. Keep your powder dry and wait for larger moves — at least 15 points or more on the ES — before making directional decisions. The market will eventually show its hand, and when it does, there will be time to act. But for now, keep risk tight, don’t force trades, and focus on levels that matter.
MiM and Daily Recap
ES Futures Recap
The overnight Globex session opened at 6467.00 and saw early resistance at 6494.75 before pulling back to a low of 6487.50 by 20:10. Momentum then built steadily, carrying ES to a high of 6508.75 at 2:50 AM. However, sellers stepped back in, producing a series of lower highs and ultimately driving the market down to a near session low of 6490.00 by 6:00 AM. The contract attempted another recovery, but follow-through was limited, and ES faded into the morning, settling at 6464.50, down 2.50 points (-0.04%) from the prior open and -7 from the previous close. Globex volume registered 109,447 contracts.
The regular cash session opened at 6464.50, with early trade pushing into strength. By 9:45 AM, ES tagged 6474.00 before quickly retreating to an early morning low at 6461.00 just ten minutes later. That early swing set the tone for a morning of choppy action.
From there, buyers attempted to regain control, lifting the contract to a morning high of 6475.25, up 14.25 at 10:20 AM and establishing the regular session high for the day. However, the strength proved fleeting, and a selloff carried ES down to 6458.50 by 10:45 AM, marking a 16.75-point slide from the peak and setting the morning low. A lower high at 6470.50 formed around 11:00 AM, but sellers stayed active, pressing the contract lower into midday.
The midday trough came at 12:45 PM, when ES dipped to 6457.25. That level held as support, sparking a sustained rally into the early afternoon. By 1:30 PM, the contract pushed to a high of 6474.25, erasing much of the morning’s weakness. A brief pullback into 2:15 PM found support at 6460.00 (-14.25), which helped confirm a higher low.
Momentum carried forward as ES climbed into another afternoon high of 6474.75 by 3:55 PM. On the day, the regular session closed up 4.25 points, or 0.07%, from the open. Compared with the prior cash close, however, ES was lower by 2.75 points, or -0.04%. Volume was very light at 686,253 contracts, reflecting late August trading. The session featured a series of sharp reversals, but the close above mid-range suggested buyers managed to maintain a modest upper hand into the bell.
Market tone leaned neutral to mildly cautious. The day’s action highlighted a persistent tug-of-war, with buyers defending key lows but unable to break free of overhead resistance near 6477–6484. The $C–C change of -2.75 (-0.04%) reflected this standoff, as the contract settled nearly flat after a full day of oscillations. The intraday volatility, with several 15–20 point swings, underscored a choppy environment that lacked directional conviction.
The Market-on-Close imbalance data showed $996M total dollar value, skewed slightly to the buy side with 59.1% of dollar flow and 53.5% of symbols leaning bullish. While the imbalance did not breach the ±66% threshold for an extreme signal, the tilt toward buying helped underpin the tape into the closing print. Still, the overall impact was muted, with ES finishing essentially unchanged. Traders will likely continue to watch whether buyers can defend the 6455–6460 support zone while pressing for a decisive breakout above 6484 to establish a more sustained trend in the next session.
Technical Edge
Fair Values for August 19, 2025:
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SP: 19.36
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NQ: 80.44
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Dow: 75.15
Daily Market Recap 📊
For Monday, August 18, 2025
• NYSE Breadth: 54% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 66% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 65% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 56% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 55% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 55% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 61 / 22
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 143 / 74
• NYSE TRIN: 0.93
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.58
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
For Week Ending Friday, August 15, 2025
• NYSE Breadth: 55% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 63% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 60% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 65% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 65% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 65% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 267 / 94
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 571 / 303
• NYSE TRIN: 1.44
• Nasdaq TRIN: 1.09
I’ll keep the format consistent from here on. Let me know when you’re ready for tomorrow’s data.
Ask ChatGPT
ES – Levels
The bull/bear line for the ES is at 6469.50. This is the key pivot level for today and will determine the directional bias. Trading above this level favors buyers, while remaining below signals caution for continued downside pressure.
Currently, ES is trading near 6478.25, just above the bull/bear line, showing buyers attempting to defend this area. If strength holds above 6469.50, upside targets are 6496.75 followed by 6522.25, with a stretch target into 6527.75. These serve as the upper range resistance zones for today.
On the downside, immediate support sits at 6456, followed by 6442.50, which is the lower intraday range target. A break below this zone could open the door to deeper levels at 6417 and potentially 6364.25.
Reminder, we are still in a long-term bullish trend, but intraday pivots remain critical for maintaining short-term momentum.
NQ – Levels
The bull/bear line for the NQ is at 23,798.75. This is the key pivot level for today, and sentiment remains bearish while price trades below it. A sustained move back above would be needed to shift momentum toward the upside.
Currently, NQ is trading around 23,774.00, showing weakness just under the bull/bear line. If sellers remain in control, the first downside target is 23,719, followed by the lower range target at 23,664.75. A deeper move could extend to 23,538.75.
On the upside, immediate resistance sits at 23,881.75, with further levels at 23,932.75. A break and hold above these resistance levels would open the door to testing 24,011.75 and then 24,059, the upper range target for today.
Overall, the bias is bearish below 23,798.75, but reclaiming that pivot and holding above it could set up a shift toward bullish momentum. We are still in a long-term bullish trend.
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Calendars
Economic Calendar
Today
Important Upcoming
Earnings
Trading Room Summaries
Polaris Trading Group Summary – Monday, August 18, 2025
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Monday’s session led by David Dube (PTGDavid) started with one clean trading opportunity, followed by a quiet market that offered more in terms of education than active trades.
Positive Trade Highlight
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The Crude Oil (@CL) Open Range Short trade was the primary opportunity of the day.
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Target 1 and Target 2 were filled early in the session.
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All targets on the Open Range strategy were fulfilled successfully.
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This trade was executed cleanly and with high confidence, providing a solid win early in the session.
Market Behavior and Strategy Notes
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Today was Cycle Day 1, with bearish average decline targets already met before the open, signaling potential for a bullish reversal.
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Key Line in the Sand was identified at 6465.
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The market opened with a narrow, neutral range, leading David to advise caution and patience.
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There was a brief test and failure at the 6475 pivot zone in the afternoon session.
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Overall price action was choppy, lacking clear follow-through or momentum after the morning move.
Educational Takeaways
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Discussion on Right Side Pivot Rule (RSPR) provided clarity on entry logic and trade structure.
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Bracket trades were used as a framework for managing entries and stops in uncertain conditions.
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Emphasis on volume and conviction as key components when trading around pivot levels.
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Traders discussed the value of drilling and repetition, comparing trade preparation to sports practice.
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Mental performance and psychology were addressed through a live session featuring Rande Howell, with some participants sharing experiences using different coaching approaches.
Community Engagement
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High participation from members with questions, chart sharing, and trade ideas throughout the morning.
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Recognition for Barbara Lopez on a well-executed trade, boosting room morale.
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Continued collaboration and conversation around mindset, setups, and trade discipline.
Summary
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Aside from the early crude oil trade, the day offered few actionable setups.
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David characterized it as a “vacation day” in terms of trading but emphasized the value of the group’s educational discussion.
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The session reinforced the importance of trade selectivity, discipline, and ongoing learning.
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Discovery Trading Group Room Preview – Tuesday, August 19, 2025
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Market Action: U.S. equities were mostly flat on Monday. Lagging sectors like Health Care (XLV) and Homebuilders (XHB) showed signs of recovery, suggesting a healthy broadening beyond Big Tech leadership.
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Geopolitics: Former President Trump met with Ukraine’s Zelensky and European leaders, pushing for a Russia-favoring peace deal while backing Ukraine with security guarantees. Trump also encouraged a summit with Putin and Zelensky. Meanwhile, the U.S. is deploying military assets to Venezuelan waters in response to cartel threats.
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Macro & Policy:
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S&P Global affirmed the U.S. AA+ credit rating, citing tariff revenues as a partial fiscal offset.
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Volatility remains low, with the ES 5-day ADR at just 47.75 points as markets await Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday.
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Tech: Nvidia (NVDA) is developing a new China-bound AI chip (B30A) that exceeds the H20 model in power. Trump has enabled potential sales under a revenue-sharing model, with deliveries expected next month.
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Economic Calendar: Light today with Building Permits and Housing Starts at 8:30am ET. Fed Governor Bowman speaks at 2:10pm ET.
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Earnings:
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Premarket: AS, MDT, NBIS, HD, VIK, XPEV
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After hours: ALC, JKHY, JHX, KEYS, SQM, TOL, ZTO
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Technical Levels (ES Futures):
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Resistance: 6598/03, 6633/38
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Support: 6492/95, 6356/61, 6278/83, 5785/90
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ES remains below ATH and grinding within short- and long-term trend channels. No significant large trader bias overnight.
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Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.
Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!
This post goes out as an email to our subscribers every day and is posted for free here around 2 PM ET. To get your real-time copy, sign up for the free or premium version here: Opening Print Subscribe.
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