After settling at 2582.75 On Friday’s close, the ES sold off down to 2575.50, down -7.25 handles on Globex Sunday night, but then rallied up to 2584.75, up +2.00 handle before Monday mornings 8:30 futures open. The first print was 2582.25, down -0.50 handles on the open, and down ticked to 2581.25 before ‘stutter stepping’ up to 2587.75, and eventually making a new high by 1 tick at 2588.00.
I often talk about this, but trading the S&P 500 futures has become a very one sided game. On the few days over the last few month that the S&P did sell off, it was a one day occurrence. We used to hear the sellers calling out tops and calling for crashes all the time, but even they have been worn out by the mammoth, non-stop rally. Like the title says above, it’s a lonely road being a short seller in the S&P.
I tell myself all the time to just stick with the trend and buy weakness, but even I sometimes end up selling it, and most of the time that I do its because Im not looking. I know it’s easier said than done, but I should just be long and not mess with being a seller. Unless you really pick your spots and time it well, I bet the probability of selling the ES and making more than a few handles is fairly low. On the other side, when the ES opens like it did yesterday and never really pulls back, you’re stuck waiting to buy a dip that never comes.
In the end the S&P 500 futures (ESZ17:CME) settled at 2588.75 , up +6.00 handles, or +0.23%; the Dow Jones futures (YMZ17:CBT) settled at 23,487.00, up 38 points, or +0.16%; the Nasdaq 100 futures (NQZ17:CME) settled at 6314.25, up +23.75 points, or +0.38%; and the Russell 2000 (RTYZ17:CME) settled at 1,497.30, up +2.5 points or +0.17% on the day. Energy shares in the S&P 500 jumped 2.2% after a wave of arrests in Saudi Arabia that raised concerns of a possible disruption to oil flows.
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- In Asia 10 out of 11 markets closed higher: Shanghai Comp +0.80%, Hang Seng +1.39%, Nikkei +1.73%
- In Europe 8 out of 12 markets are trading lower: CAC -0.13%, DAX -0.11%, FTSE -0.26%
- Fair Value: S&P -3.19, NASDAQ -1.85, Dow -69.16
- Total Volume: 840k ESZ & 284 SPZ traded in the pit
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