With over 25 economic reports, a handful of Fed speak, and President Trumps ‘state of the union’ address, you had to know the S&P 500 futures (ESH17:CME) would be all over the place, and they were.
The S&P 500 futures made a high of 2401.00 last Wednesday, and with the exception a few slow periods the ES was all over the place. During Friday’s S&P 500 futures (ESH17:CME) action the ES sold off, or had a series of failed rallies, but MrTopStep warned its forum and the Twitter followers of a possible ‘late Friday rip,’ and that’s exactly what happened. The futures rallied 6.25 handles from the early low before closing at 2380.75, up or down one handle on the day.
Overall it was a slow day, but the interest is not in Friday’s small sell off and late rally. Instead, it’s the Trump allegations that the Obama administration wire tapped Trump Towers, which gained notice over the weekend for which the president showed no evidence. The index futures dropped Sunday night after White House press secretary Sean Spicer issued a statement saying that “reports concerning potentially politically motivated investigations immediately ahead of the 2016 election are very troubling,” and that President Trump is asking Congress to investigate.
New York Times
FBI Director James Comey has asked the Justice Department to publicly reject Trumps charges that Obama ordered any wiretaps on Trump phones. In a story by the NY Times goo.gl/UKgYHz “Comey has argued that the highly charged claim is false and must be corrected,” the paper said, citing “senior American officials” as its source, and early Sunday morning Trump took to his Twitter at 3:00 in the morning:
Donald J. TrumpVerified account @realDonaldTrump Mar 4
Terrible! Just found out that Obama had my “wires tapped” in Trump Tower just before the victory. Nothing found. This is McCarthyism!
Donald J. TrumpVerified account @realDonaldTrump Mar 4
Is it legal for a sitting President to be “wire tapping” a race for president prior to an election? Turned down by court earlier. A NEW LOW!
Donald J. TrumpVerified account @realDonaldTrump Mar 4
I’d bet a good lawyer could make a great case out of the fact that President Obama was tapping my phones in October, just prior to Election!
Donald J. TrumpVerified account @realDonaldTrump Mar 4
How low has President Obama gone to tap my phones during the very sacred election process. This is Nixon/Watergate. Bad (or sick) guy!
Many have questioned Trumps swashbuckling approach, and its not the first time he has made these kind of claims, but not against the former president. The late night Tweets came from Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in West Palm County over the weekend. A report by Breitbart News quoted conservative radio host Mark Levin, who outlined the alleged steps the Obama took “in its last months to undermine Donald Trump’s presidential campaign and, later, his new administration.”
The Washington Post said the story was being passed around the White House before the barrage of Tweets were sent out.
The claims and all the unanswered questions resulted in a 10 handle drop down to 2370.50 on Globex Sunday night. With the S&P up so much since the election, and all the accusations, the futures dropped quickly and then leveled off in the early parts of the night session.
| High | Low | Settlement | Net Change | |
| Friday Feb 24 | 2365.75 | 2349.50 | 2364.50 | +1.75 |
| Monday Feb 27 | 2370.75 | 2361.00 | 2365.50 | +1.00 |
| Tuesday Feb 28 | 2368.75 | 2357.50 | 2365.00 | -0.50 |
| Wednesday March 1 | 2401.00 | 2363.25 | 2392.50 | +27.50 |
| Thursday March 2 | 2394.25 | 2378.00 | 2380.75 | -11.75 |
| Friday March 3 | 2383.25 | 2373.75 | 2380.50 | -0.25 |
While You Were Sleeping
Overnight Asian equity markets closed mostly higher, with the Nikkei as the only major that settled in the red. However, Europe opened with a solid offer, pushing prices lower. The S&P 500 futures saw weakness on the globex open, pushing lower by 10 handles to an early low of 2370.50, in just over an hour of trading. After that initial push the S&P’s attempted to rally, but failed to trade higher than 2374 in the Asian session. After that, the ES traded sideways before pushing to make a new low on the Euro open at 2368.75. Since then, the futures have rallied back up to 2376.25, and as of 6:07 am cst, has last printed 2375.25, down 6 handles, on volume of 155k.
In Asia, 9 out of 11 markets closed higher (Shanghai +0.48%), and in Europe 8 out of 11 markets are trading lower this morning (DAX -0.41%). This week’s calendar features Friday’s NFP and includes 21 other eco reports, one Fed speaker and 12 U.S. Treasury events. Today’s economic calendar includes Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure, Factory Orders, a 4-Week Bill Announcement, a 3-Month Bill Auction, a 6-Month Bill Auction, TD Ameritrade IMX, Neel Kashkari Speaks, and Treasury STRIPS.
March Historically Firm In The Beginning Of The Month And Weak Into The Expiration / Month End
Our View: One of the most distinct ES patterns we see is how the futures tend to rally after they trade lower on Globex. In most cases the rally starts around 6:00 am, or just after, but last night’s rally happened around 2:30 AM when the (ESH17:CME) retested the 2370.50 low and made the new low at 2369.75.
The democrats want an investigation into Trumps dealing with the Russians during his campaign, and Trump wants to open an investigation into the story that the Obama administration wire tapped Trump Towers. Politics played a big part in last night’s let down, but is the ‘news’ big enough to turn the stock markets tide.
According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, the month of March is historically strong in the beginning and gets weak near the end of the month. Additionally, the S&P has been down 5 out of the last 8 March options expiration and….the week after the expiration has the Dow down 19 of the last 29, and down 4 of the last 5.
PITBULL: clj osc -10/0 turns up a close above 5408, esh osc 22/26 turns down on a close below 240973, vix osc -1/2 turns up on a close above 1327.
Market Vitals for Monday 03-06-2017
[gview file=”https://mrtopstep.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Market-Vitals-17.03.06.pdf”]
As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
- In Asia 9 out of 11 markets closed higher: Shanghai Comp +0.48%, Hang Seng +0.18%, Nikkei -0.46%
- In Europe 8 out of 11 markets are trading lower: CAC -0.46% DAX -0.41%, FTSE -0.35% at 6:00am ET
- Fair Value: S&P -0.88, NASDAQ +0.50, Dow -14.36
- Total Volume: 1.35 m ESH and 4.9 k SPH traded
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