on August 13, 2025

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Our View

The ES made a 6391.25 low and rallied up to 6442.5 on Globex after yesterday’s highly anticipated CPI was released at 8:30 ET:

BREAKING: US CPI YOY ACTUAL 2.7% (FORECAST 2.8%, PREVIOUS 2.7%).

After the headline rip, the ES pulled back down to the 6419 level and opened Tuesday’s regular session at 6423.75, up 0.37%. It then rallied to a new high at 6439.75 at 9:40—and that’s when the fun began.

At 9:44, this hit the tape:

The ES sold off sharply to 6408.50 by 10:00, and then started ‘booming’ higher. It made a new high near 6467.25, had a few pullbacks, and rallied to a new high by 2 ticks at 6467.75 at 3:35. It weakened slightly as the 3:50 imbalances showed Nasdaq $3 billion to sell, then pushed up to a new high at 6470.00. It traded 6467.50 on the 4:00 cash close, up 1.05% on the day.

In the end, all the failed rallies, drops, and back-and-forth action around the 6400 to 6380 level just added more shorts and buy stops all the way up to the ES contract high at 6470.00.

In terms of overall tone, the NQ was the leader again—but both the ES and NQ acted exceptionally well. Volume for the ES was steady at 1.221 million contracts traded.

There are no economic releases today, but Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speaks at 8:30, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks at 12:30, and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks at 2:00. Earnings reports are expected from: Cisco Systems, Alibaba Group Holding, Cardinal Health, Nu Holdings, Flutter Entertainment, Tencent Music Entertainment, Lumentum Holdings, H&R Block, and Rigetti Computing.

Our Lean

I keep hearing people say we’re getting close to a high—and I say, which one?

One of the best-known trading adages is that picking tops is the hardest trade you can make, especially after the ES printed its 16th new all-time high this year and the NQ did the same yesterday. Plain and simple: the trend is your friend.

Our lean: Almost every day there’s a pullback from higher prices, and it gets bought. It doesn’t matter if it’s a 30 or 50-point drop—the buyers reappear. Sure, there’s a possibility of an even larger drop, but I think that will get bought too. I kept talking about ES 6480 yesterday, and the high was 6470.

Despite the negative expiration stats for this Friday’s monthly options expiration, I still think 6500+ is within reach.

If the ES gaps higher, we could see an early sell and then look for the “double pump.” If that plays out, we could get a nice pullback. If the ES gaps lower, I’d be a buyer—but I’d also be looking for a push up, a double pump back down, and then look to buy that dip.

GENIUS Act

Over three years ago, I started talking about adding some Bitcoin exposure to your retirement or trading account for a long-term hold. Now, President Trump’s executive order—“Democratizing Access to Alternative Assets for 401(k) Investors,” signed on August 7, 2025—initiates a structured process to expand retirement plan access to alternative investments such as real estate, private equity, commodities, and digital assets like cryptocurrencies.

The directive instructs the Department of Labor (DOL) and Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to review and update regulations within 180 days—by early February 2026—focusing on clarifying fiduciary standards under ERISA to allow prudent inclusion while emphasizing risk management for volatility, illiquidity, and fees.

During this phase:

The DOL works to rescind or revise restrictive guidance.
The SEC addresses disclosure and investor protections for registered products.
Agencies may propose rules, gather public comments over 30–60 days, and finalize updates to encourage—but not mandate—these assets.

Following regulatory changes, 401(k) plan sponsors and fiduciaries will evaluate and potentially add these options to investment menus through due diligence. The focus will be on “blue-chip” cryptos like Bitcoin or Ethereum via regulated vehicles to meet standards, with a strong emphasis on participant education and portfolio diversification limits.

Implementation will roll out gradually starting mid-2026, allowing participants to allocate funds subject to plan rules. Ongoing DOL/SEC monitoring will ensure compliance and adjustments amid challenges such as legal hurdles or delays—all aligning with broader pro-crypto policies like the GENIUS Act. Here is a link to an article from Forbes:

Surprising Ways The GENIUS Act Will Impact Financial Services

Guest Posts — Polaris Trading Group

Prior Session was Cycle Day 3: Positive 3-Day Cycle as price secured a rally above the CD1 Low (6369.50) which has a 91.37% historical performance track history. This cycle rally propelled 135.62% (100.75pts) of the normal 74.29 average cycle range.

Positive 3-Day Cycle Statistic is defined as Price Above the Cycle Day 1 Low on Cycle Day 3. P > CD1 on CD3.

Soft (better than) CPI Report instilled a sense of “relief” to traders, which gave them the greenlight signal to continue buying, which propelled price to exceed all Cycle Day 3 targets as posted in the PTG Live Trading Room.

Range for this session was 78 handles on 1.220M contracts exchanged.

For a more detailed recap of the trading session, click on this link: Trading Room RECAP 8.12.25

PTG Glossary

FREE TRIAL link to PTG/Taylor Three Day Cycle

…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1

Transition into Cycle Day 1: Today begins a new cycle with the average decline projection measuring 6432 (Recap) and 6418 (Recap-MA).

Markets closed near their respective highs on strong outgoing momentum, which may “spill-over” into today’s action before the next decline unfolds.

Price is on the cusp of new all-time highs, so unless there is an outside force greater than the current inertial momentum, continuation is the expected outcome.

Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.

PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.

As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 6460+-, initially targets 6480 – 6485 zone.

Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 6460+-, initially targets 6445– 6440 zone.

PVA High Edge = 6470 PVA Low Edge = 6430 Prior POC = 6468

Thanks for reading, PTGDavid

MiM and Daily Recap

The overnight Globex session opened at 6396.00 and initially saw mild selling pressure, pulling the ES down to a low of 6393.00 at 18:24. Buyers stepped in, lifting price to 6406.75 by 23:04, before a small dip to 6403.50 at 24:08. The market then staged a brief rally to 6409.75 at 24:48, but sellers quickly reversed the move, sending ES to a near session low of 6392.25 at 01:36. From there, a bounce reached 6411.00 at 02:24 before fading back into a narrow range. The final leg lower came early in the morning, hitting the session low of 6391.25 at 07:44, before a sharp pre-cash ramp propelled ES to the Globex high of 6442.00 at 08:40 in reaction to milder than expected CPI. The session closed at 6423.75, up 27.75 points or 0.43%, with a $C–C gain of 23.75 points (+0.37%).

The regular session opened at 6423.75 and quickly tested the upside, printing 6439.75 at 09:40 before sellers drove price to the cash-session low of 6408.50 at 10:00. From there, a steady grind higher took hold, reclaiming lost ground and breaking to 6467.25 by 14:20. A brief pullback to 6460.75 at 14:30 gave way to another push into the afternoon high of 6470.00 at 15:55. The session closed at 6467.50, a 43.75-point gain from the open (+0.68%) and up 67.50 points (+1.05%) from the prior cash close.

The cleanup session saw muted movement, opening at 6467.50 and trading to 6469.75 before settling at 6468.50, adding 1.00 point (+0.02%).

For the full day, ES advanced 72.50 points (+1.13%) from the overnight open, settling at 6468.50 with total volume of 1,220,130 contracts.

Market tone remained bullish throughout the regular session, with early weakness quickly absorbed and replaced by persistent buying into the close. The steady climb from the morning low underscored strong dip-buying interest, particularly as ES maintained a clear trend structure for most of the day. While the pace of gains slowed into the final hour, the index held near highs.

The Market-on-Close imbalance showed a significant sell-side skew, with a total of -$3.6 and 76% of imbalance dollars favoring sells. Symbol imbalance registered at -58.5%, not breaching the ±66% threshold for extreme readings but still notably negative. Despite this, prices held firm into settlement, indicating that the earlier rally left buyers in control.

Overall, the session reflected strong upward momentum, as ES built on Globex strength and extended gains into the cash close. With the market closing near the highs and breadth leaning positive, the bullish tone may carry over into the next session unless early selling pressure emerges.

How to read the MIM

Technical Edge

Fair Values for August 13, 2025:

SP: 22.47
NQ: 98.65
Dow: 89.51

Daily Market Recap 📊

For Tuesday, August 12, 2025

• NYSE Breadth: 81.7% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 78.1% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 78.5% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 80.5% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 72.6% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 75.6% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 145 / 29
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 299 / 110
• NYSE TRIN: 1.07
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.72

Weekly Market 📈

For the week ending Friday, August 8, 2025

• NYSE Breadth: 54.5% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 60.1% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 57.9% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 66.7% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 58.4% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 61.4% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 233 / 130
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 385 / 324
• NYSE TRIN: 1.60
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.92

ES & NQ BTS Levels

ES Levels

The bull/bear line for the ES is at 6453.25. Holding above this level signals bullish momentum, while a move below could shift sentiment bearish.

Currently, ES is trading around 6481.25, showing strength above the bull/bear line. If price continues to hold above 6453.25, the next upside target is 6499.50, our upper range target for today. A break and sustained trade above 6499.50 opens the door for further upside towards 6543.00.

On the downside, initial support comes in near 6468.50, followed by the bull/bear line at 6453.25. A break below this could bring the lower range target of 6407.25 into play, with deeper support at 6391.25.

Overall, the short-term trend remains bullish above 6453.25, with buyers in control as long as price stays above this key pivot level.

NQ Levels

The bull/bear line for the NQ is at 23,872.75. This is the key pivot level to monitor for sentiment today. Sustained trade above this line suggests bullish control, while staying below it would tilt the bias bearish.

Currently, NQ is trading around 23,993.00, showing strength above the bull/bear line. Immediate upside resistance sits at 24,073.50, our upper range target for the session. If buyers can push through this level, the next resistance comes in at 24,262.50. A decisive break and hold above 24,262.50 could accelerate the bullish move.

On the downside, initial support is at 23,953.50, followed by 23,672.00, which is our lower range target. A drop below 23,672.00 would open the door for a retest of 23,483.00.

Overall, the tone remains bullish while NQ holds above 23,872.75, but traders should watch for signs of exhaustion near the upper range target.

Calendars

Economic

Today

Important Upcoming / Recent

Earnings

Upcoming

Recent

Full Calendar

Trading Room Summaries

Polaris Trading Group Summary – Tuesday, August 12, 2025

The day kicked off with a Trader Wisdom reminder from David — focus only on entries that meet strict criteria, not on controlling outcomes.

Morning session:

CPI data came in at 2.7% YoY, slightly below forecast, triggering a sharp post-news rally.
Price quickly hit the 6420 bull target from the DTS briefing, then flipped it into support.
Early range expanded toward 6440, fulfilling the Three-Day Cycle target (6443.50) by mid-morning.
David marked anything above that as “gravy”, and price delivered — pushing on to the next upside targets 6454.50 and 6462.50.
ES gamma levels were clarified and reposted for members, helping frame the key reaction zones.
Morning trade also included a brief sell-side lean when Open Range longs got stopped, but flexibility allowed a shift back to bullish continuation.

Afternoon session:

David noted the 99th percentile strike at 6445, a key spot where intraday delta pushes often fade into a “pin” later in the day — useful context for timing and strategy.
Light humor and market commentary continued, with hopes for a “Dip n Rip” into the close.
The close brought high drama — a $3.7B MOC sell imbalance flipped sharply to a $1B buy, with buyers “sucking sellers like a vampire” and pushing price higher into the bell.

Key Lessons & Positives:

Pre-planned levels (6400–6420–6440–6454.50–6462.50) worked like a roadmap, all hit in sequence.
Staying adaptable allowed recovery from early stops to ride the bullish continuation.
Awareness of high-percentile strike zones provided a deeper understanding of afternoon flow behavior.
Big-picture patience + intraday precision = clean execution on a CPI-driven trend day.

This was a textbook example of the benefit of having a clear plan, respecting market reaction zones, and being willing to change bias when conditions shift.

Discovery Trading Group Room Preview – Wednesday, August 13, 2025

Inflation Update: July Core CPI rose to 3.1% YoY (vs. 2.9% in June), while headline CPI held steady at 2.7% YoY, below the 2.8% forecast. Goods inflation ticked higher (furniture, footwear, auto parts), but gas prices helped offset the rise.
Rate Cut Odds: CPI data strengthened the dovish Fed case. Markets now price in a 96% chance of a September rate cut (CME FedWatch).
BLS Leadership Shift: Trump replaces BLS Commissioner McEntarfer with E.J. Antoni (Heritage Foundation), tying into the broader Project 2025 narrative.
Tariffs & Deficit: U.S. collected a record $27.7B in tariffs in July, but the monthly deficit still grew 19% YoY due to higher government outlays. Tariff collections are <10% of total receipts.
Tariff Pressure on Consumers: Goldman Sachs reports businesses have absorbed 64% of tariff hikes, but this could flip to consumers by October. Yale Budget Lab forecasts effective tariff rates could hit 18.6% — highest since 1933.
Earnings Watch: Premarket: ESLT, KB, PFGC, QXO. After hours: CSCO, STN.
Today’s Calendar: Light economic data – only Crude Oil Inventories (10:30am ET). Fed speakers: Barkin (8:00am), Goolsbee (1:00pm), Bostic (1:30pm). Key reports later this week include PPI & Claims (Thu), and Retail Sales & Consumer Sentiment (Fri).
Market Structure: Volatility picked up with Tuesday’s strong bull move. ES 5-day ADR now at 68 pts. No whale bias overnight. ES sits mid-channel of a short-term uptrend.
- Trendline Resistance: 6520/25s, 6579/84s, 6611/16s
- Trendline Support: 6427/32s, 6337/42s, 6246/51s, 5767/74s

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Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.

Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!

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