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S&P Set To Rebound In Front Of Nvidia Earnings
BREAKING: Ukraine Hits Russia With Western-Made Missiles for First Time
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
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NYSE Breadth: 42% Upside Volume
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Nasdaq Breadth: 55% Upside Volume
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Total Breadth: 50% Upside Volume
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NYSE Advance/Decline: 28% Advance
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Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 28% Advance
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Total Advance/Decline: 28% Advance
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NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 543 / 147
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Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 817 / 488
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NYSE TRIN: 1.35
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Nasdaq TRIN: 0.81
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BREAKING: Ukraine Hits Russia With Western-Made Missiles for First Time
Putin issues warning to United States with new nuclear doctrine
Our View
We all know there are several economic reports and Fed speeches scheduled this week, but the big market event is NVDA earnings on Wednesday. Expectations are for blockbuster numbers, but the question remains: “Will the market sell the news?”
In addition to NVDA earnings, another significant geopolitical event is unfolding. President Biden has authorized Ukraine to use long-range missiles against Russia. This escalation is critical. I get it, Putin is aiming for a knockout blow but such a move could provoke attacks on NATO—particularly on key military installations, with Poland being a primary hub for weapons transfers to Ukraine.
It raises questions about why a lame-duck president, who will only be in office until January 20, 2025, would authorize such strikes. Regardless of motivations, the war is clearly widening. If Ukraine uses these long-range weapons and Russia retaliates against NATO, leading to a NATO response, the resulting market fallout could far surpass the volatility seen during the Trump pump-and-dump cycle.
Our Lean
I do not doubt we could see a pullback but I think the ES is going back to 5950. If it can hold above that level, it targets the 5970-5980 range. The strategy? Buy the pullbacks—particularly if bonds and notes show signs of firming up.
MiM and Daily Recap
The ES traded as low as 5886.25 on Globex before rallying up to 5915.75. It opened Monday’s regular session at 5900.25
After the open, the ES initially sold off to 5891.15, rallied to 5901.75, and then pulled back to a higher low at 5891.50. That level set the stage for a 41-point rally up to 5933.00 by 11:33 AM.
After the high the ES sold off 11 points 5916.00, rallied 9.75 points up to 5924.25, sold off 9.5 points down to 5907.00, rallied 9.75 points up to 5924.50 at 1:03, sold off 17 point down to 5907.50 at 1:48, rallied 14.5 points up to a lower high 5922.00 and then dropped 13.75 points down to 5808.25 at 2:27 and bounced back up to 13 points up to 5921.25 2:57, traded down to 5816.25 at 3:48.
The ES traded 5920.00 as the 3:350 cash imbalance $3.9 billion to sell, sold off down to 5913.00 at 3:57, traded 5920.00 on the 4:00 cash close. After 4:00 the ES traded sideways to down and settled at 5918.75 up 22.25 points or +0.28%, the NQ settled at 20,630.50, up 136.75 or +0.67%.
In the end, it went pretty much as I thought it would. In terms of the ES’s overall tone, most of the buying activity was short-covering. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was low but better than I expected at 1.266 million contracts traded.
Technical Edge
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Fair Values for November 19, 2024
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SP: 23.42
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NQ: 88.46
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Dow: 142.49
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Daily Breadth Data 📊
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NYSE Breadth: 63% Upside Volume
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Nasdaq Breadth: 69% Upside Volume
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Total Breadth: 69% Upside Volume
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NYSE Advance/Decline: 57% Advance
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Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 49% Advance
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Total Advance/Decline: 53% Advance
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NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 108 / 59
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Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 92 / 271
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NYSE TRIN: 0.82
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Nasdaq TRIN: 0.43
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Guest Posts
Daniel Salguero – @tradrr.com
Considering a look over the earnings for the week there is scheduled NVDA after the close of business on Wednesday rounded off by Jobless Claims, Home Sales, PMI and Michigan Sentiment on the latter half of the week. Keeping NVDA in mind to potentially cascade some strong moves for this week and having lost a few shelves of the Rolling month view places the Nasdaq in a position to continue building out the previously established ranges as fuel higher should NVDA have a favorable report. This week being the last 5 day week as we head into the holidays in the latter half of next week puts Nasdaq to either break into a direction this week past the volume shelves or get stuck in the mud till the following month.
Room Summaries
Polaris Trading Group Summary – Monday, November 18, 2024
Morning Session Highlights:
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Oil Trades (@CL):
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A strong start with the CL Open Range Long target filled early (9:32 AM).
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Opening Long All Targets followed shortly (9:36 AM), indicating positive momentum.
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Nasdaq (@NQ):
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Opening Long triggered (9:43 AM) but stopped out for a -1R loss (9:46 AM). A minor setback in an otherwise bullish day.
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Key Level Insights:
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David identified 5890 as a significant LIS (Line in the Sand) for the day (10:02 AM). This level maintained buying interest and drove the market higher.
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The ONH (Overnight High) target of 5915 was tagged (10:30 AM), confirming the bullish thesis.
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Midday Momentum:
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Targets Achieved:
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Multiple upside targets were sequentially met:
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5915 (10:30 AM)
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5923 (11:14 AM)
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5925 (11:23 AM)
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5930 (11:38 AM)
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The day’s planned Bull Scenario (5890 -> 5915-5930 zone) played out perfectly. David emphasized the importance of aligning with the dominant market force.
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Lessons Highlighted:
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David reiterated that trading success lies in executing simple plans that align with market dynamics (11:38 AM). However, he acknowledged that sticking to the plan can be challenging.
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Afternoon Session:
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Whiplash Long Setup (Post-Lunch):
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A pullback to VWAP/Midpoint (~5910) set up a Whiplash Long (2:00 PM). David walked through the setup in detail, emphasizing trader discretion in selecting critical levels.
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While the move lacked strong momentum (as noted by a participant), it reinforced the importance of understanding key price levels.
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Range-Bound Action:
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Price action contained between 5910-5920 for much of the afternoon, reflecting consolidation ahead of the close. The Market on Close (MOC) Sell Imbalance was absorbed without issue.
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Key Takeaways and Lessons:
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Strategic Planning:
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The day’s Bull Scenario unfolded as anticipated, hitting all targets (5915 -> 5930). Clear planning and alignment with dominant trends paid off.
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Flexibility in Market Interpretation:
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David emphasized that market interpretation is subjective, allowing traders to choose their critical levels while ensuring they align with broader market sentiment.
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Execution and Simplicity:
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The recurring lesson: stick to a simple, actionable plan and trust the levels that “everyone knows” for consistency.
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Closing Notes: The day was a success for bulls, with all primary targets achieved and lessons reinforced on market alignment and discretionary setups. David’s commentary provided a mix of actionable strategies and thoughtful insights for navigating dynamic conditions.
Discovery Trading Group Room Preview – November 19, 2024
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Market Overview:
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U.S. Stocks: Mixed performance on Monday:
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Dow: -0.2%
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S&P 500: +0.4%
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Nasdaq: +0.6%, driven by a 5.6% surge in Tesla (TSLA) following reports of potential easing in self-driving regulations.
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Treasuries: Yields edged lower, offering support to stock futures overnight.
Key Developments:
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Appointments by Trump:
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Brendan Carr nominated as FCC Chairman, potentially impacting Big Tech (META, AAPL).
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Sean Duffy named for the Department of Transportation, with plans to limit DEI initiatives.
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Corporate Moves:
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Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) jumped 16% on acquisition talks with Bakkt (BKKT), whose shares soared 169%.
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Crypto: Bitcoin rebounded above $91,000, maintaining strength.
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DOJ vs. Google: Push for Alphabet (GOOG/GOOGL) to divest Chrome, aiming to curb monopoly in search markets—a significant antitrust effort.
Earnings & Economic Events:
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Premarket Earnings: Medtronic (MDT), Lowe’s (LOW), Walmart (WMT), and more.
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Post-market Earnings: KEYS, ZTO.
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Economic Data: Building Permits & Housing Starts at 8:30 AM ET.
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Fed Commentary: Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid at 1:10 PM ET.
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G20 Summit: Day 2 of discussions.
Market Sentiment:
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Volatility: Moderately high; ES 5-day average range is 60 points.
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Housing Data Impact: Bearish bias among large traders into 8:30 AM ET data.
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Technical Levels (ES Futures):
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Support: 5798-5803; Resistance: 6084-6089.
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The ES remains within its uptrend channel; the 50-day MA at 5833.2 acts as loose support.
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ES – Week over Week
w Watch 6000 to hold was out outlook last week, now it is 100 points lower for hold. Below here is 5750. Bulls need to regain 6000
NQ – Week over Week
Last week we were watching 20900 for the hold, that failed spectacularly, NQ needs to reach up and grab that 20700 handle to pull out. Watching 20,350 for a hold area. NQ much closer to it lower rising trend line the ES.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Today:
Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.
Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!
This post goes out as an email to our subscribers every day and is posted for free here around 2 PM ET. To get your real-time copy, sign up for the free or premium version here: Opening Print Subscribe.
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