The ES sold off down to 5959.00 on Globex, made a high of 6039.25, and traded 6025.00 on the 9:30 regular session open. It fell to 6010.50 at 9:35, then rallied up to 6058.25 by 10:20, sold off 65 points down to 5993, and rallied again to 6069.75. The only pullback during that rally was down to the 6056 level before it ripped to a new high at 6070.50 just after 3:00.

As the MIM showed $204 million to buy, the ES pulled back slightly, then traded 6076.50 on the 4:00 cash close and settled at 6077.50, up 1.01% on the day, and up around 115 points from Sunday night’s low.

In the end, the headline low came in at 5950 on Sunday night right after the 5:00 ET Globex open. In terms of the ES’s overall tone, the biggest pullback after the early low was only 14 points late in the day. In terms of overall trade, total volume was on the high side at 1.86 million contracts traded.

I have to admit it, I sold the ES and NQ on the open and got out with a decent profit. I saw the low and all the higher lows, and I fought it all day. I haven’t been trading well lately, but I really thought you could sell the big rips. Instead, there was a big program that the algos locked onto, and it was up, up, up and away.

I kept looking for ‘positive’ news, but none of it was good. There was even a warning of Iranian retaliation against a U.S. attack—“most probably” hours away—reported by Amwaj at 10:25. That’s when the ES started to weaken. At 12:30, Iran launched missiles at the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. The ES dropped briefly but then rallied for the rest of the day.

I can’t be the only one not getting this, but just as Globex was opening, President Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran via a post on Truth Social. The announcement stated that the ceasefire would begin in about six hours (around midnight ET), with Iran starting first, followed by Israel 12 hours later, and an official end to the conflict after 24 hours.

So this brings me to where I’m going: Trump was warned by Iran that an attack was coming, and figures that after that, there will be a ceasefire. Everyone gets long (his team and family), and then he makes the announcement. Every one of Trump’s kids will be billionaires by the time he’s out of office.

Oil rallied 6% Sunday night and then retreated 7.2% after Iran launched missiles at U.S. bases in Qatar. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.321%, Gold closed up 0.30% at $3,395.00, and Bitcoin closed at $102,326, up 1.30%.

Our Lean

I’m probably wrong again, but this war is not over. Neither Israel nor Iran has publicly confirmed agreeing to the ceasefire as described by Trump. But that doesn’t seem to matter. At last night’s Globex high of 6113, the ES is only 172 points off its 6285.00 contract high and now up 1283 points off its April 7 low.

The NQ, with tonight’s 22,255.00 high, is just 661 points away from its all-time contract high of 22,871.25, and from its April 7 low, the NQ has rallied a whopping 2,105 points or +34%.

While I didn’t say “sell” on yesterday’s open, I did say I wanted to buy a lower open. I can’t explain it other than to say: The fix is in. We are going up, and it’s time to buy every 50–100 point pullback until it hurts.

Our lean: The ES and NQ are in motion on the upside. That doesn’t mean there won’t be more rattling headlines; it just means they have to be bought when they come. I can’t rule out selling a big gap-up, but this is a be-patient-and-buy-the-pullback kind of market.

It’s time to stop letting politicians get rich off inside stock info.

This is a hard game, and it’s gotten harder—but not for Nancy Pelosi. Her husband, a “venture capitalist,” achieved stunning returns of around 54% in 2024, and it’s estimated they’re up another $10 to $12 million in 2025.

Here’s a link to the story: NY Post Opinion – It’s time to stop letting politicians get rich off the stock market

I’ve been around a long time and know about big front-running on the floor and on Wall Street. There is no way Nancy or her husband Paul’s returns could outperform some of the most profitable hedge funds in the world. Why doesn’t the SEC look into this? If it were you or me, they would be.

ES

The bull/bear line for the ES is at 6054.50. This is the key pivot for directional bias today. As long as price holds above this level, buyers maintain control. A move below shifts the tone to more defensive.

Currently, ES is trading around 6126.25, well above the bull/bear line, confirming bullish control to start the session. The first upper target is 6112.75, followed by the resistance zone at 6167.75. If momentum continues, the next target sits at 6199.75, and beyond that is major resistance at 6281.25.

On the downside, support begins at 6077.50, just above the bull/bear line, followed by the bull/bear line at 6054.50. If sellers push below this zone, look for price to test 5996.25, the lower range target. Below that, additional support levels are at 5954.00 and 5941.25. A breakdown under this area opens the door to deeper downside toward 5828.00.

Overall, ES is showing strength above the bull/bear line. Dips into support may offer buying opportunities, while a break below 6054.50 warrants caution and a shift in intraday bias.

NQ – Week to Week

The bull/bear line for the NQ is at 21,975.30. With current price action trading well above that at 22,298.30, the market is showing bullish momentum, and buyers remain in control.

The upper range target for today is 22,232.00. This level has already been touched in the Globex rally and serves as the first key level that bulls must hold above for continued upside. If momentum continues, resistance is expected near 22,473.50.

The lower range target is 21,718.80. A break back below 22,072.30 and then through the bull/bear line at 21,975.30 would shift the tone back toward neutral-to-bearish and open the door to test lower targets including 21,648.30 and 21,566.80.

Support levels below current price include 22,093.00 (prior high) and 22,072.30 (prior close). Below that is the bull/bear pivot at 21,975.30 and further down, 21,718.80.

In summary, as long as price holds above the bull/bear line of 21,975.30, the bias remains bullish. Watch for upside continuation through 22,232.00 and possible extension to 22,473.50. A sustained break below 22,072.30 would be a caution sign for bulls.