Support Holding, Tariffs Looming: Trade Light Until Friday’s Jobs Report

on June 5, 2025

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Our View

It was another day in the coal mines for ES and NQ traders.

At 1:00, the ES, which opened at 5989.25, up 0.13%, made an early high at 5999.00, sold off down to 5974.25 at 10:05, traded back up to a 5998.25 double top at 11:05, sold off down to a higher low at 5977.00, and then rallied back up to the early high of 5999.00 at 2:05. The rest of the day was spent retracing the lows after the MiM came out showing $700 million to sell. The ES traded 5978.25 on the 4:00 cash close and settled at 5976.75.

For a large portion of the session, the ES’s total range was just over 20 points, with a full day range of on25 points. I personally can’t remember the last time we had a 30- to 50-point range day. I’m sure there are a few, but yesterday’s trade stood out, as did the 1.045 million contracts traded, including Globex volume.

I asked ChatGPT and Grok when the last time the ES had a 25-point range was, and both choked. So I called Rich from @HandelStats on Twitter, and he said, “I have data going back to 1970, this will be easy. The last times were 2/14/25 and 1/22/25.” So I asked him what happened the next day.

Since 2021, there have been 131 sessions where the S&P had less than a 25-point range—74 up, 56 down, with an average gain of +0.38% on up days and a -0.55% loss on down days. There were only 4 days that were up more than 1%, and never a day where the ES was up more than 1.54%. The down days tell a different story: there were 10 days with losses greater than 1%, and of those, 3 were down more than 2%.

Since 2000, there have been a total of 385 days with less than a 0.41% daily range. If you exclude 2017, 2018, and 2019, you eliminate half of those days. That leaves only 150 such days in 22 years, which equals 2% of all sessions, several of which were holidays. I don’t think this will be perfect, but with the VIX nearly 71% off its April 7, 2025 high of 60.13, it signals a higher level of complacency, despite a lot of tariff headline risk.

Trump

Trump has warned that the heavy “reciprocal” tariffs announced in April will go into effect on July 9 if deals aren’t reached with dozens of trading partners. As of today, he has finalized one deal—with Great Britain—and has 89 other deals to complete in the next 33 days.

If trade deals cannot be reached, the duties will resume on July 9 at midnight ET. One of the tariffs set to kick in is 50% on goods from the European Union. Then, on August 12, a 90-day pause on 145% tariffs against China will expire.

Our Lean

I think we all know that when Trump goes quiet, he starts pounding the tariff drums. I get it—he wants a better deal with China, agrees to a 90-day tariff extension, and then it ends up blowing up with both countries accusing each other of violating the terms. Trump thinks he’s the master of the deal, but China isn’t giving in. They know about TACO—Trump Always Chickens Out—and they’re not backing down, so expect him to hit Truth Social soon.

Today brings key economic reports like Initial Jobless Claims and Productivity and Costs. While Trump isn’t scheduled to speak today or tomorrow, there’s a growing chance he’ll make some tariff-related comments soon.

Our lean: In normal times, low volume and narrow ranges point to higher prices. But Trump headline risk in play, it’s hard to see how he can put a positive spin on the current situation. I doubt there will be any phone calls with Xi on Friday. I’m not saying the ES and NQ can’t keep climbing, but there’s a lot of short-term risk here.

Will today be another slow day? It could be. But tomorrow we get the May jobs report, and we head into the first Friday of June, which is also Week 1 of June options expiration. I’m looking to buy early weakness and sell the rips.

Support Levels: 5960.30 (5-day moving average), 5899.39 (20-day moving average), 5893.47 (200-day moving average), 5817.95 (100-day moving average), 5648.99 (50-day moving average)

Resistance Levels: 5981.50, 6000.00, 6008.00 (52-week high)

MiM and Daily Recap

Intraday Recap – Wednesday, June 4, 2025

The S&P 500 futures (ES) opened Tuesday’s regular session at 5989.25 after gaining 9.25 points during the Globex session, which closed at the same level (+0.15%). Price action began with early pre-market strength, reaching 5996.50 at 8:05 AM, before reversing to a low of 5974.00 by 8:25 AM—a 22.50-point drop (-0.38%).

Once the cash session began at 9:30 AM, ES extended its recovery, rising to 5998.75 at 9:35 AM. This marked a 24.75-point gain (+0.41%) from the earlier low. However, selling quickly resumed, sending the market back down to 5974.25 at 10:05 AM, erasing the entire gain with a 24.50-point drop (-0.41%).

A rebound followed, peaking at a lower high of 5998.25 by 11:05 AM before price slid again to 5977.00 at 12:10 PM (-21.25 points, -0.35%). The afternoon session brought another push higher, and a fresh intraday high of 5999.00 was logged at 2:05 PM, a 22-point gain (+0.37%) off the midday low.

However, that strength failed to hold. A late-session slide to the day’s final low of 5975.75 at 4:00 PM, representing a 23.25-point pullback (-0.39%) from the last peak. The regular session settled at 5978.25, a loss of 11.00 points from the open and down 3.25 points (-0.05%) from Monday’s close.

The cleanup session continued the soft tone, with a final settlement at 5976.75. Total volume reached 1,046,673 contracts, with the regular session contributing 853,639.

Market Tone & Notable Factors

The overall tone on Tuesday was neutral to slightly bearish. Despite several strong recoveries, the inability to sustain highs and a consistent pattern of lower highs into the close indicated seller control. The repeated reversals suggest traders were quick to fade rallies.

While volume was firm across all sessions, the lack of continuation on each bounce pointed to reactive rather than committed directional flows. The closing stretch, especially after 3:50 PM, saw accelerated weakness likely fueled by significant MOC data.

The Market-on-Close (MOC) imbalance showed a decent -$1.739B to sell, with a -73.8% dollar-weighted skew and a -63.0% symbol imbalance—right on the threshold for significant pressure. This final hour sell flow capped the day’s action, contributing to the closing softness.

In conclusion, bulls must defend the 5970s to prevent a more meaningful pullback. Tuesday’s action suggests caution, especially with waning follow-through on upside attempts and heavy late-day supply.

How to read the MiM

Technical Edge

Fair Values for June 5, 2025

S&P: 8.22
NQ: 34.24
Dow: 59.96

Daily Breadth Data 📊

For Wednesday, June 4, 2025

• NYSE Breadth: 42.6% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 65.5% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 62.8% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 50.1% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 54.3% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 52.7% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 83 / 9
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 186 / 43
• NYSE TRIN: 1.16
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.62

Weekly Breadth Data 📈

For the Week Ending Friday, May 30, 2025

• NYSE Breadth: 54.3% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 58.9% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 57.2% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 68.3% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 59.9% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 63.0% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 153 / 59
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 278 / 204
• NYSE TRIN: 1.73
• Nasdaq TRIN: 1.02

Guest Posts:

Dan @ GTC Traders

Picture Perfect Buy-In’s … Outcomes are Unpredictable

What is a “Good” Entry?

So the GTC Sample Portfolio has three distinct accounts, running as a multi-strat. The Equity Fixed Income Hybrid Core … the Long-Short Valuation Investing Program, and our Short-Term Trading book. Today, we’ll be discussing some purchases made in the Equity Fixed Income Hybrid Core, as I want to make a specific point.

I hear people talking about “Good Entries” a lot. But exactly what is a good entry? Is an entry where the trade wins?

We don’t think so.

For the Equity Fixed Income Hybrid Core some time ago … we bought in to Church & Dwight Co, Inc. (CHD).

And as it turns out? We are pretty pleased with our entrance …

We are also up on the Seagate Technologies (STX) buy in back from February ..

And don’t even get me started on Costco (COST) …

In fact, when you look across all of the Income Assets held within the Equity Fixed Income Hybrid Core? All but one … are up from where we bought them …

So does that mean that every asset with the exception of Diageo PLC (DEO) had a good buy-in?

No.

I want you to burn this next part into your brain. And if there is one thing I say that carries with you? I want it to be what I have to say in the following paragraphs ..

They were ALL ‘good’ entrances. Including Diageo PLC (DEO).

Because they all followed the process of buying according to the process, which means buying the asset when it is a good historical valuation multiple in relation to the company’s earning power; in the company of 17 other assets … with a good position-sizing scheme.

That process dictates that we must hold 18 income producing assets, bought in at good valuation multiples, historically speaking.

What happens after you purchase any asset is a complete and total unknown … is unknowable … and cannot be predicted ahead of time.

Diageo PLC (DEO) was bought at a good historical valuation multiple in relation to the company’s earning power.; with a good position sizing scheme (half-sized position). What happened after that? Was unknowable and unpredictable.

And since that is the case? That is why we placed it with 17 other income producing assets. Those 17 other assets give us what is referred to as ‘duration‘ by professionals.

What is duration?

‘Hang-time’, as we old skateboarders used to say.

In other words, it allows you to stay with a position, or positions, longer than if you simply viewed the trade as a binary event. The 17 other assets, provides ‘duration’.

And then there is the position sizing scheme.

Much of the benefit in terms of Alpha to the Equity Fixed Income Account? Is simply because the market happened to rally; and due to correlation effects, our Income Producing Assets went along for the ride.

What if the market hadn’t rallied; and instead, all of the assets had fallen? What if like … 2000 to 2003? The market fell apart?

Would those purchases still have been ‘good entrances’?

Yes.

They were ALL ‘good’ entrances.

Because they all followed the process of buying according to the process, which means buying the asset when it is a good historical valuation multiple in relation to the company’s earning power; in the company of 17 other assets … with a good position-sizing scheme.

We only bought half-sized positions. Allowing us, if the market falls apart, to average in at a better price down the road.

We are up on the Equity Fixed Income Hybrid core? But the primary thing to notice? Is that we are executing well … according to the process.

Until next time, stay safe and trade well …

Trading Room News:

Polaris Trading Group Summary: Wednesday, June 4, 2025

Wednesday played out as a textbook Cycle Day 2 (CD2) with the market stuck in a bracketed range rhythm for most of the day. The tone was more about observation and discipline than aggressive trading, as opportunities were limited and the best action came late in the day.

Market Context & Strategy:

David opened with the expectation of normalized MATD rhythms, fitting for CD2.
The Initial Balance was wide (20 handles), hinting early at a range-bound day, and the market delivered just that.
Key bias was to lean long on dips, but with caution due to the range environment.
No break of the IB high (5998.75) meant the game plan stayed focused on being selective and patient.

Key Lessons & Highlights:

Discipline over action: PTGDavid emphasized not pushing trades in range conditions. Instead, conserving mental energy and waiting for Triple-A setups was key.
“Cannot push on a string” — a perfect metaphor for the kind of day it was: attempting to force trades would lead to frustration.
P-Shaped profile and bull stackers gave some hint of potential upside, but resistance held most of the session.
The importance of understanding market internals and recognizing when no trade is the best trade was a central teaching today.

Trade Talk & Notable Action:

Bruce F reported a bull stacker trade from 11am that hit target 1, with target 2 still open — one of the few positive setups during a low-opportunity day.
Afternoon session hinted at a breakout with NQ poking above HOD, but ES lagged, failing to commit.
David described the market as full of “sticky wicks” — highs were repeatedly rejected.
End-of-day surprise: a “Persian rug pull” came via a $1.1B MOC sell imbalance, closing the session with a sharp drop.

Room Vibes & Community:

Active and reflective chat today. Members, including Barbara, Bruce, and Slatitude39, leaned into discussions around trading psychology, continuous learning, and market rhythm awareness.
Several references to Mark Douglas, music analogies, and mental mastery reinforced the theme of trading as an internal game as much as an external one.

Summary Takeaways:

No big wins, but no unnecessary losses — a success in a tough environment.
Day emphasized the trader’s mental discipline, market structure awareness, and ability to sit out choppy conditions.
Bruce’s trade and David’s consistent guidance kept the room aligned with the rhythm, avoiding costly mistakes.

Stay flexible. Stay sharp. Save your energy for the days that matter.

DTG Room Preview – Thursday, June 5, 2025

DAX Alert: Sell interest noted at 24,400 (per DAMIAN197).
Macro Developments:
- ADP private payrolls slowed sharply to just 37K – the weakest in recent memory.
- Trump’s 50% steel/aluminum tariffs took effect, sparing only the UK.
- MEMA warns of immediate supply chain risks due to China’s restrictions on rare earths; GM, Toyota, VW among the impacted.
- Despite claims of progress, US trade deals remain in limbo; “TACO” sentiment (Trump Always Chickens Out) brings cautious calm to markets.
- New US entry bans on multiple countries and program-specific bans targeting Harvard foreign exchange students.
Earnings Watch:
- Premarket: Ciena (CIEN)
- After-hours: Broadcom (AVGO), DocuSign (DOCU), Lululemon (LULU)
Data Ahead: Weekly Unemployment Claims, Nonfarm Productivity, Unit Labor Costs (8:30am ET).
Market Technicals:
- ES volatility is subdued; 5-day average daily range is 79.5 points, with only 25 points seen Wednesday.
- No significant whale volume overnight.
- ES remains rangebound below 6000; key support at 5898 (200-day MA), resistance near 6095/98. Broader TL support levels: 5878/81, 5849/52, 5352/57, 4978/83.

https://mrtopstep.com/l/full/

ES

The bull/bear line for the ES is at 5980.75. This is the key pivot level for the day and needs to be decisively held above for the bulls to maintain momentum.

Currently, ES is trading around 5988.75, suggesting the market is attempting to stay constructive above the bull/bear line. A failure to hold this level could trigger selling pressure back toward the lower support levels.

The lower range target is 5934.00. Before this level, there is a key support zone around 5976.00, which marks the last level of meaningful structure before price potentially tests the lower prices.

On the upside, resistance comes in at 5999.00, then the upper intraday range target at 6027.50. If the market can break above and hold these levels, the next upside magnet would be the r1 level at 6071.25.

In summary, the intraday structure remains bullish above 5980.75 with upside potential toward 6027.50 and possibly 6071.25. A break and sustained move below 5980.75 would put 5934.00 and then 5893.25 into focus as downside targets.

The bull/bear line for the NQ is at 21,737.50. This is the key level that determines directional bias for today’s session. Holding above this level favors the bulls, while trading below it opens the door for a corrective pullback.

Currently, NQ is trading around 21,795.00, indicating strength above the bull/bear line. As long as price holds this area, we favor continued upside momentum. The immediate target above is 21,803.00, which is today’s high so far. Beyond that, the upper intraday range target sits at 21,958.00. A sustained move through these resistance levels could extend the rally toward the 22,000.00 psychological mark.

On the downside, the first level of support is the bull/bear line at 21,737.50. If that level is lost, look for a move down to 21,688.25, then 21,641.00, and finally the lower range target at 21,517.00. A breach of these levels could shift momentum back toward the bears.

Overall, NQ remains in an intraday uptrend above 21,737.50, with dip buying favored until that level is lost. Continued acceptance above 21,800.00 would reinforce bullish control and make 21,958.00 the next magnet.