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Tariff Turmoil, Tech Triumph: Markets Whipsaw on Trump and Powell
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Our View
Yesterday’s trade had a little bit for everyone—sell-off, rally, and then another sell-off, or something like that. With all the economic and earnings reports, plus the Fed, we knew there would be an uptick in volatility.
The ES made a high at 6429.75 and then sold off 63 points down to 6366.75 after Powell spoke. I’ve been around a long time and have seen a lot of things, but never the likes of this president.
Trump hits India and Brazil with high tariffs – NBC News
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Trump says U.S. will impose 25% tariffs on India – NPR
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Trump says he thinks the US will have a very fair deal on trade with China – Reuters
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President Donald J. Trump Takes Action to Address the Threat to National Security from Imports of Copper – The White House
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President Donald J. Trump Addresses Threats to the United States from the Government of Brazil – The White House
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Trump misusing tariffs to punish Brazil – referencing Reuters coverage of sanctions linked to Brazil’s political unrest
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Breaking: Korea reaches Trade Deal with US/TRUMP! More winning! – The Wall Street Journal
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Donald Trump Announces Pre-Deadline Trade Pact with South Korea – Newsweek
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Trump 2.0 tariff tracker – Trade Compliance Resource Hub
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Wyden Urges Colleagues to Rein in Trump’s Catastrophic Trade War – Senate Finance Committee
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Trump implements additional 40% tariff on Brazil
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Trump imposes universal 50% tariffs on imports of semi-finished copper products
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Trump imposes universal 50% tariffs on imports of copper-intensive derivative products
It was a sell-the-news event, but I thought there was a big disconnect between the drop and the META and MSFT earnings after the close. Whenever you see the crowd go from long into the rally and then short into the decline late in the day, there’s always a chance of a late rally.
Here are a few of my posts as we went down to the lows:
IMPRO : Dboy : (3:02:41 PM) : everyone short now going into the earnings
IMPRO : Dboy : (3:11:32 PM) : e going back to 6400
IMPRO : Dboy : (3:13:26 PM) : going to blast out of here
IMPRO : Dboy : (3:14:00 PM) : fill in the blank … run the sell stops now run the ???
IMPRO : Dboy : (4:03:14 PM) : flat 16.00
IMPRO : Dboy : (4:03:18 PM) : done
IMPRO : Dboy : (4:03:28 PM) : ha ha
IMPRO : Dboy : (4:03:35 PM) : love it
IMPRO : Dboy : (4:04:07 PM) : u had to know the F job was coming
IMPRO : Dboy : (4:04:17 PM) : no one rides for free
IMPRO : Dboy : (4:05:19 PM) : especially the shorts
The ES started to short cover, pushing it up to the 6392 level just before META and Microsoft reported robust earnings. That helped push the ES all the way up to a new high at 6435.25.
In the end, it was a good old-fashioned drop and pop. In terms of the ES and NQ’s overall tone, they didn’t look great on the lows, but they looked terrific at the late highs. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was low for the size of the trading range at 1.235 million contracts traded.
Our Lean
There is no rest for the weary this week. Today, there are four economic reports, including the PCE number, and Apple and AMZN report after the bell.
Goldman Sachs expects Apple’s Q3 2025 earnings to beat estimates, with revenue at $89.5 billion and EPS of $1.45. Morgan Stanley raised its 2026 earnings estimate for Amazon from $7.35 to $8.00, citing a “more manageable” trade environment.
I can’t rule out another sell-off, but the ES looks like it wants to go higher.
Our lean: If the ES gaps higher, I want to sell the early rallies and buy the pullbacks. I want to once again say the markets are heading into some seasonal weakness. Is it going to happen? I don’t know—but you shouldn’t be surprised if it does.
MiM and Daily Recap
ES Recap for Tuesday, July 30, 2025
Intraday Recap
Globex session opened at 6404, and buyers stepped in and slowly pushed the contract to a high of 6416.75 at 2:15 AM. After a couple of 10-point swings up and down by 8 AM, getting ready for premarket setup for the cash open, the ES was trading right around its Globex open price. The regular session opened at 6412.00 and quickly found resistance at 6414.50 by 9:45 AM before dipping to an early low of 6405.25. A rebound lifted the ES to 6421 at 10:30 AM, marking the morning session’s high. However, the rally failed to hold as prices reversed sharply, tagging a fresh low of 6402.25 by 11:15 AM.
A midday grind higher took ES back to 6419.75 by 12:21 PM before a brief dip to 6414.75 at 12:39 PM. Another lower high printed at 6419.25 at 1:00 PM, and back-to-back selloffs followed. The first leg dropped ES to 6413.50 at 1:30 PM, and a second leg extended the decline to 6412.50 by 2:00 PM and the Fed announcement.
That set up a powerful downside flush into 3:06 PM, where the session low of 6366.75 printed, representing a 45-point drop from the morning high. A sharp short-covering bounce followed into the final hour as earnings were released, with prices ramping up to 6435.25 at 4:12 PM, a massive 68.5 point swing from the 3:06 low. The ES settled at 6425.50 in the 5:00 PM cleanup session.
On the day, the cash session fell 14.50 points, or -0.23%, closing at 6397.50. From the prior day’s cash close, ES was down 8.50 points (-0.13%). Globex added 8.00 points (+0.12%), while the full session rose 21.50 points (+0.34%).
Market Tone & Notable Factors
The overall tone was two-sided with sharp intraday swings but leaned bearish through the middle of the session before a late rebound. Volume was solid with over 1.23 million contracts traded, led by 1.02 million during the regular hours.
Buyers attempted multiple pushes throughout the day, but each move failed to break away until the final-hour rally. That recovery was not enough to lift the session into the green, and the market remained net down from the previous day’s cash close.
The Market-on-Close (MOC) imbalance showed a strong -$2.05B to sell, with 71.4% of dollar flow and 60% of symbols leaning negative. This notable sell-side imbalance contributed to the mid-afternoon weakness and limited the recovery into the 4:00 PM cash close.
Despite the late-day rally, sellers maintained control on the close, and the heavy imbalance signals caution going into Wednesday’s trade.
Technical Edge
Fair Values for July 31, 2025
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S&P: 31.47
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NQ: 134.3
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Dow: 155.75
Daily Breadth Data 📊
For Wednesday, July 30, 2025
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NYSE Breadth: 27% Upside Volume
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Nasdaq Breadth: 41% Upside Volume
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Total Breadth: 40% Upside Volume
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NYSE Advance/Decline: 31% Advance
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Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 33% Advance
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Total Advance/Decline: 32% Advance
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NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 77 / 42
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Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 143 / 114
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NYSE TRIN: 1.16
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Nasdaq TRIN: 0.70
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
For the Week Ending Friday, July 25, 2025
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NYSE Breadth: 58% Upside Volume
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Nasdaq Breadth: 65% Upside Volume
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Total Breadth: 63% Upside Volume
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NYSE Advance/Decline: 66% Advance
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Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 61% Advance
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Total Advance/Decline: 63% Advance
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NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 273 / 62
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Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 609 / 157
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NYSE TRIN: 1.40
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Nasdaq TRIN: 0.83
BTS Levels:
ESU2025
The bull/bear line for the ES is at 6398.25. Price is currently trading above this level at 6456.50, suggesting bullish momentum is in control heading into the cash open. If buyers can hold above 6398.25, intraday sentiment remains constructive.
The upper range target for today is 6431.25. This level has already been cleared during Globex, and the next resistance lies at 6462.00. A sustained move above 6462.00 could invite further upside momentum toward new highs.
On the downside, support starts back at the 6431.25 level (now potential support), followed by the bull/bear pivot at 6398.25. Below that, the lower range target is 6365.25, and deeper support is found at 6334.25. A break below 6398.25 would shift the bias back toward sellers and open the door to a broader retracement.
NQU2025
The bull/bear line for the NQ is at 23,497.00. This is the key level that separates bullish from bearish sentiment for today. Currently, NQ is trading sharply higher at 23,785.50, showing strong upside momentum well above the bull/bear line.
With price decisively above this key level, the market bias favors the bulls. The upper intraday range target is 23,643.25. This level has already been surpassed, which opens the door to continued upside toward 23,780.50, the next resistance level marked as r1. If momentum persists beyond that, the psychological round number at 23,800.00 may come into play.
Should NQ pull back, initial support lies at 23,689.00, followed by the previous session high zone near 23,643.25, which now may act as support. A break back below 23,497.00 would neutralize the bullish bias and put the lower range target of 23,351.75 into focus, with further downside possible toward 23,214.50.
Given the strength of the current Globex session, bulls remain in control above 23,497.00.
Calendars
Economic Calendar Today
This Week’s High Importance
Earnings:
Released
Trading Room News:
Polaris Trading Group Summary: Wednesday, July 30, 2025 (FED Day)
Morning Session – Calm Before the Storm
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The session opened with tight overnight action and an early “neutral lean” from David as traders waited for the FOMC.
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David emphasized patience with little momentum present and advised against overtrading into the midday chop.
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The room focused on key structure: open range consolidation, prior value levels, and the key 6405 LIS (Line in the Sand).
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A shift to a long lean was noted mid-morning as price began to show strength above consolidation.
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Target 1 from the @NQ Open Range Long strategy was fulfilled.
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Market failed to sustain above 6420 resistance, indicating lack of interest at higher prices pre-FOMC.
FED Announcement and Reaction
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The Fed held rates steady at 4.5%, as expected—no surprise.
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Initial bullish move post-announcement pushed price up to 6425–6429.75, hitting David’s Bull Scenario target from the DTS Briefing.
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Price reversed sharply after the Q&A began, triggering the Bear Scenario and fulfilling multiple downside targets including 6385 and 6380.
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The market reached as low as 6367, hitting the Cycle Day 3 Violation Target—an advanced level from David’s cycle subscribers.
Post-FED Commentary and Trade Review
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David reiterated that deep violation levels like 6367 offer strong reward-to-risk reversal potential.
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Room discussion covered how volatility post-FED can be difficult, but levels held up with precision on both long and short sides.
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David noted this was a “both ends” day, with traders able to take advantage of each side by following structure and discipline.
Lessons and Key Takeaways
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Trade lightly into FOMC releases and avoid the noise during the press conference.
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Respect for structure—especially LIS at 6405—helped keep traders on the right side of the tape.
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Targets from the DTS Briefing were fulfilled precisely, showcasing the value of preparation and scenario planning.
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The Cycle Day 3 level (6367) provided a textbook downside completion and lesson in how market structure cycles work.
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David emphasized that market depth like this cannot be navigated by emotion—discipline and tools are key.
Fulfilled Targets
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@NQ Open Range Long Target 1
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Bull Scenario Target: 6425–6430 (hit 29.75)
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Bear Scenario Targets: 6385, 6380, 6389
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Cycle Day 3 Violation Target: 6367
A strong trading day for those who stayed patient, respected key levels, and followed the game plan.
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Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.
Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!
This post goes out as an email to our subscribers every day and is posted for free here around 2 PM ET. To get your real-time copy, sign up for the free or premium version here: Opening Print Subscribe.
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