The ES and NQ wasted no time continuing their upward push that started on Globex early Friday morning, when the ES traded down to 6571.25 and then proceeded to rally all the way up to 6718.00 going into Friday’s close.

Fast forward to Sunday night — the ES traded down to 6694.00 on Globex, rallied up to 6737.50 at 3:33 a.m., sold off down to 6711.50 at 6:57 a.m., then rallied up to 6746.50 at 9:28. It traded 6733.00 at the open and rallied 42 points up to 6775.50 at 10:51. It pulled back to the 6763 level, then rallied up to a lower high at 6744.25 at 11:51.

A little earlier, this headline hit the tape:
TRUMP: CHINA MAY PAY 155% TARIFF IF NO DEAL BY NOV 1 — but this headline was actually a retread of a release that went out at 3:30 a.m.

The ES then went on to make a series of higher highs, reaching 6783.00 at 2:12 p.m., then pulled back to 6772.25 at 3:21, traded up to 6781.00 at 3:45, and traded 6780.25 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $1.2 billion to buy. It traded back down to the 6772.50 area and ended the day at 6773.25 on the 4:00 cash close, settling at 6780.25, up 59.25 points or 0.88% from the open.

The NQ settled at 25,305.25, up 318.75 points or +1.28% on the day.

In the end, it was all about Trump lightening the tariff threats, and AAPL’s jump led the charge higher. In terms of the ES and NQ’s overall tone, there were almost no pullbacks. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, I want to point something out — and it goes along with my “thin to win” theory — only 1.146 million contracts traded.

AI for DUMMIES

If you had told me 10 years ago that there would be so many user-friendly AI tools that even a dummy like me could use, I would have told you you’re nuts. I understand it, and I know how to use it — but “it” has to get to know you, and you need to know how to talk to it.

I’m sure by now you’ve seen more AI in my stories, but let me assure you: I ask my own AI questions on things I already have some knowledge of, and it gives me the history. I will never use AI to write my newsletter or edit it for me because that would take the human side out of it.

I was using ChatGPT, but now I’m a GROK guy. I don’t talk to it, but I probably should. Tonight, I started working on ES support and resistance levels. I used to just pick out the old highs and lows, but now I’ve added in pivots, Stochastics, Fibonacci, Moving Averages, RSI, HLC, and Standard Deviations.

I figured some of it wouldn’t work well together, but when I made the first set of levels, they were 84% accurate. So I added Market Profile, and it went up to 89%. Then I asked GROK how to improve the accuracy and make the changes — and it jumped to 99.5% accuracy.

ESZ25 ULTIMATE Support & Resistance Levels (Oct 20, 2025 Close: 6,779.50)

REVISED ESZ25 LEVELS (99.5% ACCURACY)

UPDATED MARKET PROFILE (30-DAY TPO + 1H)

Now… I can’t guarantee that any of these levels will work, but I’m going to use them today and try to refine the code over a few weeks. Then I’ll see if Niels from DeltaTrader.com can program the levels into the charts.

I don’t think this is anything special — but it’s definitely something I could not do on my own. So as long as AI can do the heavy lifting, I’ll keep at it.

On Tap

9:00 a.m. – Fed Governor Christopher Waller – Opening Remarks

Our View

I’m sure people may have different views on this, but Trump has been backtracking on his China tariff threats. I think he stretched the Art of the Deal playbook too far and has been shifting trade policies by exempting dozens of products from tariffs and cutting deals.

I think this is a hedge by the Trump administration that the U.S. should lower tariffs on goods it doesn’t domestically produce. This comes ahead of the Supreme Court hearing on November 7 regarding the reciprocal tariffs — a case that could force the administration to pay back many of the tariffs if it loses in court.

I believe the Chinese are tired of Trump’s threats and have been making new trade deals all over the world. Time will tell, but the saber-rattling isn’t working anymore.

Here are the key dates to put on your calendar:

You can’t make bad trading decisions and blame the market. I know one buddy who does it all the time, and I’ve heard it so many times I want to punch him. That said, I made a bad trading decision on yesterday’s lean when I said to sell the gap-up or early rallies. But I did add this at the bottom of the lean: I don’t see the ES selling off that much, but based on the size of the ranges, it wouldn’t be out of the ordinary.

Does this make me happy? No.
Did I lose money? Yes, because I started selling it because I wasn’t long.

Our Lean

I don’t think Octoberphobia — or the spooky month of October — is over. There are still 9 trading days left in the month, and rest assured, there are more headlines to come.

The next vote to reopen the government is today, but Polymarket’s odds are 74% that the vote won’t pass.

Our lean: I still think the ES and NQ are going to go higher and make new all-time highs. The ES is only 0.40% from its all-time high, and the NQ is around 0.29% off its high. That’s one good buy program away.

I can’t rule out selling the early rips, but the trend is to be patient and buy the pullbacks.

Also, I’m not sure this matters, but the ES has closed higher in 6 out of the last 7 sessions.

ES & NQ Levels (Premium only)

ES – Z Levels

The bull/bear line for the ES is at 6759.75. This level marks the key pivot for today’s session. Trading above it keeps the short-term tone bullish, while sustained action below suggests further downside pressure.

Currently, ES is trading around 6774.75, just above the bull/bear line. If buyers can hold the tape above 6759.75, the next upside target is 6839.50, which serves as today’s upper range target. A move through that level opens the door toward 6914.50.

On the downside, immediate support comes in near 6721.00 (previous open) and then 6694.00. Below that, look to 6679.75 as the lower range target. A break and hold under 6679.75 would shift momentum firmly to the bears and could extend losses toward the 6605.00 region.

For now, the bias remains cautiously bullish while holding above 6759.75, but failure to maintain that level could quickly bring sellers back into control.

NQ – Z – Levels

The bull/bear line for the NQ is at 25,245.25. This level serves as the key pivot for today’s session. Above it, bullish momentum can extend toward the upside targets, while sustained action below it will invite further weakness.

NQ is currently trading around 25,297.00, slightly above the bull/bear line, indicating an early bullish tone in the Globex session. If buyers can hold above 25,245.25, the next upside targets are 25,590.75 and 25,915.75, with interim resistance near 25,305.25. A push through 25,590.75 could accelerate momentum toward 25,824.75.

On the downside, if price slips back under 25,245.25, look for tests of 25,065.75 and 24,899.75, the lower range target for today. Further weakness below that opens room to 24,574.50, which would represent a deeper retracement.

Overall, the market bias remains constructive above 25,245.25, but traders should monitor reactions around that pivot closely for confirmation. Bulls need to hold that zone to maintain control; otherwise, expect a rotation back toward 24,900.

Polaris Trading Group Summary – Monday, October 20, 2025

Monday was a textbook Cycle Day 1, and the market followed through with a strong directional uptrend right from the open. The room executed well, staying aligned with structure and capitalizing on continuation longs, key level reactions, and precise timing windows.

Highlighted Trades & Execution:

Continuation Long Setup (ES 6727.75 / SPX 6690)

A10 Long Entry

Timing Model Execution:

Manny’s S4H / Cycle Day 1 timing roadmap was spot-on:

Key Lessons & Takeaways:

Fade Attempts:

Final Score:

Closing Thought from PTGDavid:
“Yes Virginia…Cycle targets can and do get fulfilled on Day 1.”

Strong execution and discipline across the board. Well done.