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Our View

What happened with the ES? It sold off a little on Globex, rallied a bit before the 9:30 ET regular session open, and then rallied up to 5952.50. It sold off down to 5914 at 11:36, then rallied back up to the 5927 area at 12:33.

So far, the old trading adage “Sell stocks in May and walk away” has not worked at all. In fact, the ES has gained 6.7% so far this month—on track for its strongest performance since November 2023.

As you know, I’m a stats guy, and according to Rich Miller (@HandleStats), if the SPX closes above 5881.63 on the last trading day of May, the ES could rally another 20%, potentially reaching 7000.00 to 7200.00 by year-end.

The results of the 5-Year Note auction came out with a B+ rating, and the NQ started going bid, pushing the ES up to the 5929.50 level at 1:13. The May Fed minutes were scheduled for release at 2:00, and NVDA was set to report its Q1 2025 earnings after the close.

After the push up, the ES pulled back and traded in a 4- to 6-point range from 5922 to 5928. Then, a few headlines hit almost simultaneously: a story about a big option gamma trade; Ukraine’s Defense Minister said, “I have handed over the Ukrainian version of the memorandum to the head of the Russian delegation. Ukraine is not opposed to further meetings but is waiting for the memorandum from the Russian side”, and news broke that Trump ordered U.S. chip designers to stop selling to China.

These headlines quickly pushed the ES down to 5903.25, but it then rapidly rallied back up to the 5932.50 area. The rest of the day was a struggle to hold a bid, with the ES eventually selling off all the way to 5890 after the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $1.2 billion to sell.

NVDA beat quarterly sales expectations as customers stockpiled its AI chips ahead of new U.S. export curbs to China. However, those same restrictions are expected to cut $8 billion in sales from the company’s current quarter, forcing the company to offer a forecast below Wall Street estimates. Despite that, the ES rallied off the 5890.00 low and surged all the way to 6002.75 around 9:30 on Globex.

Essentially, Nvidia blamed its shortcomings on Trump’s tariffs—and then rallied 112 points.

The 10-year yield rose to 4.479% after settling at 4.432% on Tuesday. The 30-year yield climbed to 4.977%, and the dollar index rallied.

ESM2025:
From the ESM’s 2025 low of 4831.00 to last night’s Globex early high at 6002.75, the ES has rallied 1,166.50 points, or +24.146%. It’s up 1.97% YTD and is now 232.25 points off its all-time contract high of 6235.00.

NQM25:
From the NQM’s low of 16,460 to last night’s Globex high of 21,777.00, the NQ has rallied 5,317.00 points, a gain of 32.3%. It is up 3.6% YTD and currently sits 887.50 points below its all-time high of 22,672.00.

There are 3 economic reports, five Fed speakers, and a $44 billion 7-year auction today.

I was already in buy-the-pullbacks mode when @HandleStats told me the S&P was going a lot higher last week. Rich explains his study in this video:

Helping this idea is new money pouring back into the markets. Last week, ETFs pulled in $23.5 billion of new money during the week ending Friday. U.S. equity ETFs took in $5.4 billion, while U.S. fixed-income ETFs led the way with $7 billion in inflows. International equities added $5 billion, international fixed income pulled in $3.6 billion, and currency ETFs brought in $3 billion.

Our lean: Obviously, the trade has been to buy stocks and sell fixed income. Today is T+1. I can’t rule out selling the big gap-up or the early rallies, but it’s all about being patient and buying the pullbacks.

The levels I am looking at on the upside are 6010, 6020, and 6050. On the downside, I have 5950, 5936, 5923.50, 5916, 5900, and 5894.

MiM and Daily Recap

S&P 500 futures began the 24-hour cycle with a modest Globex uptick, opening at 5945.75—4.50 points (0.08 %) above yesterday’s cash settlement—yet that carry-over strength quickly evaporated. Premarket, the ES tagged 5945.75 at 08:40 ET before a pullback to 5935.50 by 09:25 (–10.25, –0.17 %). A transient rally then lifted the contract to a Globex high of 5952.50 at 09:40 (+17.00, +0.29 %) through the open at 5940.25.

Once cash trading commenced, enthusiasm was short-lived as sellers asserted control at 9: 40.  By 11:55, ES had descended to an intraday low of 5913.75, down 38.75 points (–0.65 %) from the 9:40 peak. The ensuing midday recovery clawed back to 5930.50 at 13:15 (+16.75, +0.28 % from the trough) but stalled, giving way to a dip to 5918.50 at 13:40 (–12.00, –0.20 %). A second rally to 5929.00 by 14:10 (+10.50, +0.18 %) failed to hold, paving the way for another sell-off that carved out 5903.25 at 14:50 (–25.75, –0.43 %).

The strongest bounce of the regular session arrived at 15:05, when ES surged to 5932.75—a 29.50-point gain (0.50 %) off the late-afternoon low—but that effort ran out of steam into the cash close at 16:00, which printed 5901.50, leaving the contract down 34.50 points (–0.58 %) from Wednesday’s finish. In the 16:00–17:00 cleanup phase, futures probed a low of 5890.00 at 16:20 (–42.75, –0.72 %) before recovering to settle at 5925.50.

Session-to-session metrics framed the day’s shifts: Globex open-to-close was –0.25 points (0.00 %) though still +4.50 (0.08 %) versus yesterday’s cash close; the regular session saw –38.75 (–0.65 %) open-to-close, equating to –34.50 (–0.58 %) from the prior settlement; cleanup posted +23.75 (+0.40 %) but remained 10.50 (–0.18 %) below yesterday’s finish. Across the full 24-hour cycle, ES ended 15.25 points (–0.26 %) below the opening print and off 34.50 points (–0.58 %) from the prior cash finish, on total volume of approximately 1.13 million contracts.

Section 2: Market Tone & Notable Factors

The day’s price action skewed bearish, as sellers repeatedly regained control after each bounce. Despite a brief midday recovery, lower highs and lower lows dominated the pattern. Volume peaked at key turning points, underscoring strong participation in downside moves. Though the late surge to 5932.75 tested resistance, follow-through was lacking and left ES stranded near session lows by settlement.

Market-on-Close imbalance data showed a symbol skew of 54.1 % on the buy side—below the ±66 % threshold for notable extremes—indicating that auction dynamics failed to impart a decisive buy-side bias. With no pronounced MiM drivers and broader liquidity stretched thin after holiday flows, the cleanup rally was a technical reprieve rather than a genuine shift in supply/demand.

In summary, prevailing sentiment was bearish to neutral, as intermittent rallies were quashed by systematic selling pressure. Key support now sits at the 5900 area, with initial resistance near 5930. Unless overnight Globex flows reclaim that zone, early bias today may favor further downside testing of 5890–5880; a sustained move above 5935 would be required to flip the short-term pattern back in buyers’ favor.

How to read the MiM

Technical Edge

Fair Values for May 29, 2025

Daily Breadth Data 📊

For Wednesday, May 28, 2025

Weekly Breadth Data 📈

For the Week Ending Friday, May 23, 2025

Trading Room News:

Polaris Trading Group Summary: Wednesday, May 28, 2025

Yesterday was a textbook session of reading market structure, executing around key levels, and reacting quickly to unexpected flows. The morning was active, filled with trade opportunities, while the afternoon gave way to chop before a late-session drop.

Morning Highlights – Strong Tactical Trading

Midday – Positioning & Caution

Afternoon Surprise – Options Flow & Macro

Key Lessons & Takeaways

Overall, it was a day where preparation, structure, and experience paid off. The morning gave great opportunities, and the late-day flush validated the bearish scenario. Another strong educational and tactical day in the PTG room.

DTG Room Preview – Thursday, May 29, 2025

Calendars

Economic Calendar Today

This Week’s High Importance

Earnings:

Released

Full Calendars

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Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.

Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!