The Dog Days of Summers Have Arrived

(and so have the hurricanes)

Our View

The dog days of summer have arrived, and so have the hurricanes. 

They say the current Category 4 to Category 5 hurricane (Beryl) is the earliest on record. I expect both the markets and weather to be very stormy this summer. 

According to AAA, this week a record 60.6 million people are expected to hit the road for the Fourth of July, up 2.8 million travelers compared to last year. With that in mind, and with a 99% chance that volume will thin out, volatility can take over. We’ve got some jobs data this morning, but remember, the US equity markets close early today (1 pm ET).

MiM and Daily Recap

The ES sold off down to 5502.75 and opened Tuesday’s regular session at 5516.00. After the open, the ES traded 5515.00 and then rallied to 5535.75. It sold off to 5525.25, rallied back up to a new high at 5536.25 at 10:09, sold back off to 5523.75 at 10:15, and then rallied up to a new high at 5539.50 at 11:12. It pulled back to 5534.50 and then rallied up to another new high at 5544.25 at 11:42. 

After reaching the high, the ES pulled back to the 5530.25 level, rallied up to 5561.00 at 3:35, pulled back to 5561.75 at 3:49, and traded at 5558.25 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $2.3 billion to sell. It then traded down to 5557.00 and closed at 5569.50 on the 4:00 cash close. After 4:00, the ES sold off to 5562.25 at 4:11 and then rallied up to 5566.50, settling at 5562.75 at the 5:00 futures close, up 30.75 points or +0.56%. The NQ settled at 20,240.00, up 196.75 points or +0.98%. 

Gold (GCQ4) settled at 2,339.60, up 0.7 points or +0.03%. The 10-Year note futures (ZNU4) settled at 109’160, up 0.095 or +0.27%. Crude oil (CLQ4) settled at 83.06, down 0.32 points or -0.38%. Lastly, Bitcoin (BTCN4) settled at 62,310, down 1,385 points or -2.40% on the day.

In the end, mutual funds and ETFs put money to work on the first trading day of the new quarter. In terms of the ES’s overall tone, the only weakness was at the open. Regarding the ES’s overall trade, volume was low, with 205k ES traded on Globex and 1.037 million traded during the day session, totaling 1.242 million contracts traded.

Technical Edge

Guest Post — Polaris Trading

Topic PTG Daily Trade Strategy

Author: David D Dube’ (a.k.a. PTGDavid)

Website: https://polaristradinggroup.com/

Prior Session was Cycle Day 1: Price established a new cycle low at 5502.75 during GBX session and rallied to 5565.25 – 5572.50 target zone during RTH session. Given the “super-strength” of today’s rally, this could potentially develop into another “super-cycle” by Cycle Day 3. Range for ES was 67 handles on 1.240M contracts exchanged.

 …Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2 

This leads us into Cycle Day 2: Price closed near highs of the day, so further upside momentum targets  between 5571 – 5578. Normal for CD2 would be for MATD consolidation with a continued bullish-bias on any dips. Today is also filled with some key economic releases, so be prepared for “snappy” reactionary price volatility. Otherwise, our discipline of maintaining positioning that is aligned with market forces continues to serve us well, so stay the course.

 As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 5560, initially targets 5575 – 5585 zone. 

Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 5560, initially targets 5545 – 5540 zone.

PVA High Edge = 5557      PVA Low Edge = 5519         Prior POC = 5533

*****The 3 Day Cycle has a 90.70% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history. 

Thanks for reading,

PTGDavid

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

Economic Calendar

For a more complete Economic Calendar see:

Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.

Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!