on July 18, 2025

This post goes out as an email to our subscribers every day and is posted for free here around 2 PM ET. To get your real-time copy, sign up for the free or premium version here: Opening Print Subscribe.

Follow @MrTopStep on Twitter and please share if you find our work valuable!

Our View

I’m going to start writing less. I like telling stories and talking about all the crazy news and all the Trump headlines.

As for yesterday’s trade, the ES rallied on Globex, rallied again during the day session, and made new all-time contract highs. After a few down days and a minor push down to the 6240 level, we saw some very narrow-range, low-volume back-and-fill action. Then the ESU traded up to 6345 and then up to 6357 during Thursday night’s Globex session. I could do the high/low breakdown, but there were a lot more highs than lows.

In the end, the ES closed up +0.54%, marking its ninth record close of the year. The NQ gained +0.74%, hitting its fourth consecutive record close and its longest streak since November.

In terms of the ES’s overall tone, the only thing I can say is: “never short a quiet market.” In terms of the ES’s trade, volume was low at 983k contracts — that’s 480k contracts lower than Wednesday’s 1.462 million. Clearly, “thin to win” played its role.

The dollar strengthened against the yen, pound, and euro. The yield on the 10-year note rose to 4.462%. Bitcoin fell 0.3% to $118,997, and gold settled up 0.51% at $3,359.82. Clearly, things have slowed, but the index markets are maintaining their upward trend.

Our Lean

I said two days ago 6050–6080, and the ES traded up to 6350.75 on Globex. There is some bullish concern about today’s expiration due to the large number of bullish calls. According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, the July expiration has seen the Dow down in 15 of the last 24 occasions, with big losses in 2002 and 2010. The week after expiration is also prone to wild swings: the Dow was up 16 of the last 22 times — up 3.1% in 2002, up 3.2% in 2006, down 4.2% in 2007, up 4% in 2009, up 3.2% in 2010, and down 2.9% in 2015.

Our lean: With that in mind, I still think we go higher, but today could be difficult. If the ES were to gap higher, I would have to lean into it — but even if the futures sell off, I still expect a two-way trade. And if the ES sold off down to 6290–6310, I would be looking for some longs.

Guest Posts:

SpotGamma Founders Note:

Get instant access to our partners’ real-time market data and insights not available anywhere else. Here is last night’s Founder’s note getting you ready for today’s market and explaining the constraints in yesterday’s market. – MrTopStep

Founder’s Note:

Futures are flat as we head into July OPEX.

6,300 is the big strike on the board – but only until the 9:30AM ET expiration. At 9:30 the SPX AM contracts expire, which then seems to remove most of the SPX positive gamma, leaving 6,340 as the big 0DTE strike (blue box). To the downside we see 6,280 and 6,250 as support – and we think its likely 0DTE options sellers come out and pad any intraday weakness.

Before you get too bulled up on this, note that the SPY 630 level is likely the upside level to watch, as that is where we see SPY gamma flip from negative to positive. This infers 630 is the resistance level for today.

Looking ahead, we’ve been making the case for consolidation into next week, given the call-heavy expiration, rich call skews, and low implied vols. We think this could lead to a 2-3% correction, with eyes on major support in the 6,000-6,100 area.

We’re also into full-on meme-mania with quantum computing stocks firing off on massive options volume, then yesterday it was LCID (+1.4mm contracts) and OPEN (+800k).

If we are wrong on this, and SPX holds >6,250 into next week, then we have to start eyeing upside at the big 6,400 strike.

We’ll close out on this:

Below is what it looks like when traders are pricing a riskless market. All top US ETF’s are in the bottom right quadrant reflecting very low volatility expectations, and call prices rich vs puts. This is implying that being long here is a very crowded trade, and while we don’t think that means a crash is imminent, we do think a correction/shakeout would be a healthy thing for the longer term bullish construct. At a very minimum buying put protection is cheap.

Get instant access to our partners real-time market data and insights not available anywhere else. Here is last night Founder’s note getting you ready for today’s market and explaining the constraints in yesterday’s market. – MrTopStep

MiM and Daily Recap

The overnight Globex session saw a modest upward drift, opening at 6299.25 and climbing to a premarket high of 6316.75 by 09:00. That marked a 27.5-point gain from the session low of 6288.25. Despite some pullbacks, the tone remained constructive heading into the cash open, with the Globex session closing at 6304.75, up 5.50 points (+0.09%).

As the regular session began at 09:30, ES immediately retested the morning low at 6302.00, which would stand as the session low. Buyers quickly stepped in, pushing price to 6323.25 by 10:09, a 21.25-point rally (+0.34%). After a quick pullback to 6308.75 at 10:24, the market resumed its advance, climbing steadily to 6336.50 at 12:09. This represented a 27.75-point move from the earlier dip and reflected broad strength.

Following that midday high, the market retraced back to 6320.50 by 12:39, shedding 16.00 points (-0.17%), but holding above prior support. Buyers maintained control into the afternoon, driving ES to a new high of 6345.50 by 15:03, a gain of 25.00 points off the midday low. However, signs of fatigue began to emerge. A shallow pullback to 6340.50 at 15:27 was followed by a minor lower high at 15:57 (6345.00), then a slight fade into the bell, reaching a final low of 6338.50 at 15:57.

The regular session settled at 6342.25, up 37.75 points or +0.60% from the open, and representing a $C–C gain of 39.50 points (+0.63%) from the prior day’s close. The total session range spanned 57.25 points, from 6288.25 to 6345.50.

Volume during the full session reached 982,116 contracts, with 803,559 traded during regular hours. The cleanup session was quiet, with no change from the close and only 44,392 contracts traded.

The tone was clearly bullish throughout Thursday’s trade, with a steady series of higher highs and higher lows establishing intraday momentum. The early Globex weakness was shallow and short-lived, giving way to persistent buying through the cash session. Strength into the close confirmed the bullish bias, though some late-day hesitation emerged after tagging new highs.

Despite the firm intraday structure, the Market-on-Close data showed growing sell pressure into the bell. The MiM imbalance registered −77.1% in dollar terms and -64.6% by symbol count on the NASDAQ, nearing the -66% threshold for strong selling. Sell pressure peaked at $-1.565B at 15:55, with 87 of 134 symbols showing net selling. However, this imbalance failed to significantly reverse the day’s gains, only resulting in a minor dip off the highs.

In all, Thursday marked a healthy upside session with broad participation, resilient buying interest, and a constructive structure. While MOC sell flows were notable, they arrived too late and too mild to materially dent the session’s bullish progress. The strong $C–C close and positive intraday trend suggest buyers remain in control heading into Friday’s trade.

How to read the MIM

The bull/bear line for the ES is at 6331.00. This is the key pivot level for the session. Price is currently trading at 6342.00, just above the bull/bear line, indicating potential bullish momentum as long as it holds above.

If ES continues to hold above 6331.00, the upside targets include 6345.50 and 6373.75, the upper range target for today. A move through that zone opens the door for a test of 6413.75 and potentially higher.

If price fails to hold above the bull/bear line, look for initial support at 6299.25, followed by the lower range target at 6288.50. A break below this zone could lead to further downside toward 6248.25.

The current structure favors a bullish bias above 6331.00, with sellers needing to push price decisively below 6299.25 to regain control.

The bull/bear line for the NQ is at 23,210.00. This is the key level to watch for directional bias today. NQ is currently trading at 23,262.25, showing strength above the bull/bear line. If this level holds, we can expect upward momentum to continue, with upside targets at 23,383.00, the upper range target and next at 23,545.75.

If NQ slips back below 23,210.00, the tone would shift bearish, opening the door for a move toward the lower range target at 23,037.00. A break below this area would expose further support near 23,017.00 and then down toward 22,874.25. Traders should monitor for any failure to hold above the 23,210.00 pivot, which would suggest a possible intraday reversal.

Technical Edge

Fair Values for July 18, 2025

SP: 38.35
NQ: 161.65
Dow: 207.87

Daily Breadth Data 📊

For Thursday, July 17, 2025

• NYSE Breadth: 69.5% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 73.8% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 73.3% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 67.7% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 69.5% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 70.8% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 108 / 20
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 248 / 50
• NYSE TRIN: 0.86
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.76

Weekly Breadth Data 📈

Week Ending Friday, July 11, 2025

• NYSE Breadth: 49.5% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 61.2% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 56.4% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 44.8% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 44.8% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 41.6% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 264 / 35
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 453 / 157
• NYSE TRIN: 0.81
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.51

Trading Room News:

Polaris Trading Group Summary – Thursday, July 17, 2025

Thursday’s trading session in the PTG room was a textbook Cycle Day 3 (CD3) Bull Trend Day, with precise setups, clearly communicated targets, and strong community engagement, culminating in new all-time highs for both ES and NQ.

Morning Context & Strategy

Overnight action respected the 6290 Line in the Sand (LIS) and rallied into the 6305–6310 target zone with precision—setting a strong bullish tone heading into RTH.
David outlined a bull scenario: holding above 6290 would sustain upside potential through the 6310 area. This scenario unfolded accurately.

Key Trades & Signals

A Bull Stacker Buy Signal was triggered early, leading to a successful @NQ Open Range Long trade with TGT1 hit cleanly.
Price extended to fulfill the CD3 upper penetration target at 6334.75 Money Box, followed by a full retest and breakout to new all-time highs.
David maintained focus mid-session: “Trend up bull setups only,” keeping members aligned on the right side of the tape.

Lessons & Member Development

PeterN, a new member, received direct coaching from David on risk management, stop placement, and handling runners. His thoughtful questions generated valuable discussion around risk/reward and trade structure.
Ram also contributed with targeted technical questions regarding ATR and CCI, encouraging real-time education around trade location and confirmation techniques.

Community Highlights

Slatitude39 probed a short at 6322, aligning briefly with David’s call for sell-side probes at that level.
John B shared a visual volume profile journal to capture his market read—praised by David as a great example of structured thought process.
The room remained active, collaborative, and supportive, creating a productive atmosphere for both experienced and new members.

Closing Session

Despite a $5 billion MOC sell imbalance, the market absorbed the selling pressure.
Both ES and NQ fulfilled their CD3 upper penetration targets and closed near new all-time highs.
David summarized the day simply: “Bulls did the job.”

Takeaway

Today was a clear and well-structured bull trend day. The room executed effectively within the CD3 framework, capitalized on early signals, and showed strong trade discipline. Valuable lessons on patience, structure, and trade management were reinforced throughout the session.