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Our View

On Wednesday morning the ES was down 1.1%, and the NQ was off 1.35%.
It was April 2nd, Trump’s Liberation Day, and my birthday.

There are what I call ‘wild trading days’ and then there are days like yesterday. Market moves like yesterday tend to take no prisoners.

What happened after the open? The ES rallied off its 5610.75 low up to 5739.25—a 128.5-point rally—and the NQ rallied off its 19,326.50 low 545.75 points and then all the way up to 20,044.25. That’s 717.75 points off the low and after Trump started talking.

I know I have said this before, but the movement is so large that picking up 20 to 50-point trades is not that hard, and I’m sure some people are holding 70 to 100+ point moves, too. The other part of this, I know it’s trading, but it feels like we are gambling, betting on what Trump is going to say. The rip was fast and furious but the sell-off was death-defying. The ES dropped 209 points down to 5566.25, and the NQ sold off 975.75 points down to 19,098.50 at 4:45 all in 30 minutes.

And this doesn’t include the ES’s drop down to 5481.00 on Globex and the NQ’s drop down to 18,819.00. I have seen a lot of big moves, but yesterday came in the top 10—and you know what? This isn’t over.

The world has been waiting on Trump’s tariffs, and the list of friendly nations is shrinking and shrinking along with the economy. I say this a lot but no, I’m not surprised. The PitBull and I have been saying it felt like a train that could just go flying off the tracks—and it did.

Now we have to see how the European markets react. I am not saying I saw all of the big up and then big down, but I warned people not to forget that every bounce has been a dead cat.

IMPRO : Dboy : (11:55:03 AM) : I think no matter what, rally or not, the overall trade has been selling the big rips.

IMPRO : Dboy : (12:01:50 PM) : If you take a large look of the ES it looks like it’s holding the 5500–5550.00 area fairly well and it’s been back and filling but the thing you are stuck with you never know what Trumps going to do until hes talking.

IMPRO : Dboy : (12:02:30 PM) : to that point people seem to be optimistic in a field of shit

IMPRO : Dboy : (12:05:38 PM) : well all I am saying is there have been a lot of upside false starts, so far it doesn’t look like that, but we all know how the rips have ended up.

Things were unhinged—they really were—and you could feel it in the air as Trump continued to talk. I have consistently been pessimistic about ‘the rallies.’ That this is not over. That said, we have a rule that says the ES tends to trade sideways to higher after a big drop, but that drop was really ugly and could signal 5300 in the ESM25. Of course, the NQ has to go along for the ride, but I think yesterday was a reality check for the overly optimistic out there.

We’ve have some decent economic numbers out this morning: Initial Jobless Claims, the US trade deficit, S&P PMI Services at 9:45, ISM at 10:00, and two Fed speakers at 12:30 and 2:30—and then tomorrow, the Friday jobs report for March.

Our lean: I don’t think this is over—and nor should you. Like I said, it doesn’t matter if it’s a 100-point rally or a 200-point rally—they all end the same way: on their ass. I don’t like what we are seeing, but there’s no stopping it. Can the ES and NQ rally? Sure they can and will. But will they hold? So far, that answer is a clear no.

As you all know, I love buying big down opens, but the odds are not as favorable today. The EU said it was ready to respond, so let’s see what happens and wait for the next headlines. My lean is to buy the early weakness if the ES gaps lower, and then look to sell the rallies—which could mean 80 to 100+ points higher. I do not like the markets, but I think the ES went down too much, too fast.

MiM and Daily Recap

The ES began the overnight Globex session under pressure, sliding to a low of 5610.75 by 9:30 AM ET during the cash open. That marked a 15.75-point dip (-0.28%) from the earlier 8:27 AM swing low at 5626.50. Shortly after the bell, a sharp rally emerged, lifting ES to 5702.25 by 11:27 AM, a 91.5-point gain (+1.63%) from the session low.

After a midday pullback to 5675.00 at 11:51 AM, the market staged another advance, reaching 5739.25 by 1:12 PM. This 64.25-point push (+1.13%) extended the morning recovery. A brief consolidation followed, as price faded to 5675.25 at 11:51 AM, but quickly regained ground, notching a local high of 5739.25 at 1:12 PM.

The market faded a bit down the 5675 at 2:57 PM. Momentum accelerated into the late afternoon with a push to 5721.25 at 3:54 PM, followed by a final spike to the post-session high of 5773.25 at 4:15 PM, just after the regular session ended and President Trump began his remarks on his tariff orders. That peak represented a 98.25-point intraday rally off the morning low.

However, the rally quickly unraveled during the cleanup session. A swift drop began after 4:15 PM, with ES falling sharply to 5692.50 by 4:39 PM, then plunging to the next day’s global session low of 5481.00 at 6:21 PM. That move erased 292.25 points (-5.06%) from the post-close high.

From a session-change perspective, ES closed the regular session at 5710.00, up 35.25 points (+0.62%) from the prior day’s 5672.00 close. The regular session itself added 97.00 points from open to close, a 1.73% gain. However, the post-close cleanup phase erased those gains, with ES ending at 5584.50, down 87.50 points (-1.54%) on the full session.

The overall tone shifted dramatically from bullish during the cash session to sharply bearish in the extended trade. The strong midday rally and higher highs pointed to steady buyer interest throughout the regular session, with cumulative volume reaching over 1.44 million contracts.

However, sentiment reversed sharply after hours, driven potentially by external macro headlines or position unwinding. The cleanup session saw a deep retracement, dragging the full-session close well below the regular-session settlement.

Despite the strong price action into the close, the Market-on-Close (MOC) imbalance leaned neutral-to-weak. The total imbalance at 3:51 PM stood at $1.42B with 68.1% on the buy side—just crossing the notable threshold. However, the symbol percentage only reached 51.4%, indicating mixed participation and not an overwhelming directional skew. This likely limited the follow-through into the 4:00 PM print.

How to read the MiM

Technical Edge

Fair Values for April 3, 2025

Daily Breadth Data 📊

For Wednesday, April 2, 2025

Weekly Breadth Data 📈

For the Week Ending Friday, March 28, 2025

Guest Posts:

Dan @ GTC Traders

Boom

At GTC Traders we have been stating that in November of 2023, the Stock Market began a bubble. Even here in this space on “The Opening Print”, we outlined in six articles over six weeks the quantitative, qualitative and discretionary rationale behind this view.

Several times we have been asked: “Ok … well … when will this bubble or unending rally end?”

And our response has been the same: “We don’t know. We’re not God, and we can’t predict the future. But it will come to an end.”

Yesterday, President announced sweeping tariff’s impacting countries and trade across the globe, at a much higher rate than the market had anticipated and priced in. The S&P 500 Index, at the time of this writing is down another -3.44% … on top of the losses experienced in February and March.

We have predicted nothing. Our gamble and our bet, is that unending rallies cannot continue … for all of the reasons we listed back then. And we set up our Long-Short Valuation book for just that eventuality. In fact, the Program we have designed for this has been running at 100% since November of 2023. A program that is 100%, only looking for short bets against the Indices. And we believe, doing so in a rather clever way. Everything done live in front of Premium Members of “Read the Report”. So we have been ready and poised for this downturn …

Printing +1.18% in March, opposed to the S&P 500’s -5.75%. And at least thusfar in April? We are up for the month as the market sinks.

Is this the end of the bubble? Was the ‘boom’ that was lowered across Global Trade and the Markets yesterday the signal that we are truly at the top?

“We don’t know. We’re not God, and we can’t predict the future.”

We do know that at the moment, our Program is working as intended and is well poised if the market truly does begin a significant downturn. It has not been easy to run this program, only looking for short trades in a market determined to only head higher.

In our view? The “boom” that was lowered across all risk markets yesterday? We are only at the beginning of this ‘regime change’. We view it as healthy for markets. The insane valuations in equities have gone on for far too long, and this is not healthy. We will continue to monitor … evaluate, and move the program forward as designed.

Until next time, stay safe and trade well.

Trading Room News:

Polaris Trading Group Summary: Wednesday, April 2, 2025

Yesterday’s session was defined by high volatility and directional uncertainty, fittingly labeled by PTGDavid as a “wild-card” day, coinciding with the politically charged “Liberation Day” and anticipated tariff announcements from former President Trump. Despite the macro noise, the PTG room maintained discipline and executed according to plan, scoring multiple clean setups and emphasizing key trading principles throughout.

Key Themes & Market Context

Successful Trades

Lessons & Reminders

Closing Notes

Takeaway: Strong trade setups, especially in the morning session, delivered clear wins. Traders who followed the PTG process were well-positioned to profit, even on a news-sensitive “wild-card” day.

DTG Room Preview – Thursday, April 3, 2025

President Trump’s “Liberation Day” proclamation imposes a baseline 10% global tariff starting April 5, with harsher “reciprocal” tariffs targeting major trade offenders from April 9. These are the steepest tariffs in over a century, with an estimated 29% average once fully enacted, and they allow for escalation if retaliation occurs.

Markets initially sold off but have since moved sideways. Economists like Neil Dutta warn of significant economic shocks, especially given potential global retaliation. Notably, oil imports, Canada, and Mexico are exempt. However, China faces a crushing 54% effective tariff rate, threatening U.S. small businesses and employment tied to Chinese imports.

Volkswagen has paused shipments from Mexico and Europe and will add “import fees” to affected vehicles by mid-April.

Key Earnings & Data Today:

Market Action:

Calendars

Economic Calendar Today

This Week’s High Importance

Earnings:

Released

Full Calendars

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Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.

Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!